Since the NFL realigned to eight four-team divisions in 2002, more than two dozen teams have gone from worst in their division standings to ranked first in the following season. Just last season, the Patriots went from last place in the AFC East all the way to the Super Bowl, and the Bears won the NFC North a season after they finished last.
Who’s next? We’ve gone through the eight teams that finished in last place in each division after the 2025 season and ranked them by their odds of suddenly winning their divisions in 2026. (One year ago, the Bears and Patriots were ranked second and third on this list, respectively.)
These odds are via ESPN’s Football Power Index. FPI’s overall predictive ratings combine win totals from the betting market along with factors such as the difference between a team’s starting and backup quarterback and a special teams rating that incorporates specific kickers. There are clear indicators that help guide us as to which teams are most likely to go from worst to first. But remember that sometimes teams will change and develop in ways we can’t foresee and take an unexpected big step forward. For example, the Texans went from 3-13-1 in 2023 to first place the following season, partly thanks QB C.J. Stroud’s rookie season, which far exceeded expectations. If Fernando Mendoza has a similar rookie season, we might be seeing the Raiders in first place in 2026.
For now, we’ll start with a team that went the opposite direction -- from first to worst -- in its division over the past two seasons.
1. Detroit Lions
2025 record: 9-8
Odds of winning division: 38.2% (first in division)
Odds of making playoffs: 68.4% (sixth in NFL)
The Lions have by far the best odds to go from worst to first, for three main reasons: schedule, injuries and the fact that they weren’t really that bad last season. Of course, this is exactly what I wrote about the 49ers a year ago, so there certainly are no guarantees.
We’ll start with the quality of the team. The Lions finished last season ranked third in both FPI and DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). Yes, there are questions about the interior offensive line, but this is a team that has ranked among the league’s top eight offenses for four straight seasons. The defense also has excellent talent, and DVOA ranked the Lions in the top 10 for all three phases of the game in both 2024 and 2025.
Don’t forget that Detroit had a winning record last season and was actually one win away from finishing second in the NFC North. And one of these years, the Lions might make it through a season without suffering the most defensive injuries of any team in the league. Detroit ranked dead last in adjusted games lost on defense last season, and only the Cardinals had more injuries overall.
The Lions’ schedule ranks 27th in the league by the average projected DVOA of their opponents; the other three teams in the NFC North all have schedules ranked 18th or harder. Getting Arizona on their schedule instead of the other three NFC West teams is huge, but the Lions also play the Giants and Titans instead of the tougher teams their division rivals must face.
2. New Orleans Saints
2025 record: 6-11
Odds of winning division: 19.3% (third in division)
Odds of making playoffs: 23.8% (23rd in NFL)
The Saints have reasons to believe they could make a quality jump this season. It’s their second season under coach Kellen Moore and defensive coordinator Brandon Staley. Teams tend to improve once they get used to new coaching systems, and the Saints were already improving during the 2025 season on both sides of the ball. DVOA ranked them 29th on offense and 21st on defense through Week 9. In Weeks 10-18, they were 26th on offense and eighth on defense.
Saints fans can also have hope about their talent. Maybe quarterback Tyler Shough takes a big leap forward in his second NFL season, or perhaps receiver Jordyn Tyson has a huge rookie year opposite a healthier Chris Olave.
But the biggest reason why the Saints come in second on this list is their division competition. The NFC South has been rough, and it looks like it will be that way again. The Buccaneers are 18th in FPI. The other three teams, including the Saints, rank between 24th and 26th.
The NFC South champion has been 9-8 or worse in three of the past four seasons. It could be again in 2026. So why not New Orleans?
3. New York Giants
2025 record: 4-13
Odds of winning division: 11.6% (third in division)
Odds of making playoffs: 22% (25th in NFL)
The Giants got to take two highly skilled players in the top 10 of the 2026 draft. They have wideout Malik Nabers, their best target on offense, coming back from a knee injury that cost him most of last season. They’re also getting back running back Cam Skattebo, who was an exciting part of the offense until a midseason ankle injury. And they’ve added a good amount of veteran talent to improve the defense, including linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and linemen Shelby Harris and DJ Reader.
The Giants also have a new coaching staff, led by John Harbaugh. New York fans are hoping Harbaugh can translate his strong track record to turn things around quickly.
This is all well and good, but of course the biggest reason why the Giants might win their division would be QB Jaxson Dart making huge second-year improvements. It worked for the Bears and Patriots last season, so it could work for the Giants this season. Dart was already a surprising 17th in QBR (57.5) among qualifying QBs in 2025, thanks in part to his value as a runner. You can’t expect him to suddenly become a top-10 quarterback, but it’s possible, especially with Nabers to catch his passes.
4. Tennessee Titans
2025 record: 3-14
Odds of winning division: 5.6% (fourth in division)
Odds of making playoffs: 12.4% (27th in NFL)
If you liked playing “maybe our second-year QB takes the leap” with the Saints and Giants, you’ll also enjoy playing it with the Titans!
Cam Ward, who was the No. 1 draft pick in 2025, was considered a better prospect than Jaxson Dart at this time last year, but otherwise the Titans are similar to the Giants -- just in less exciting ways. As a rookie, Ward ranked last among qualifying starters in QBR (33.2). The Titans added two first-round picks in this year’s draft, but only one of them was in the top 10 (WR Carnell Tate). The Titans added a lot of veterans on defense this offseason, but they don’t particularly stand out. And the Titans also have a new coaching staff, but Robert Saleh doesn’t have the track record of John Harbaugh.
The Titans do have their division as a point in their favor, as FPI is more impressed by the Eagles and Cowboys than it is by the Texans and Jaguars.
5. Las Vegas Raiders
2025 record: 3-14
Odds of winning division: 1.5% (fourth in division)
Odds of making playoffs: 6% (28th in NFL)
The Raiders are a lot of “maybe but probably not.” First of all, you have to expect that rookie QBs will be bad. Yes, even No. 1 picks. (Again, Cam Ward was last in QBR last season.) The Raiders haven’t even said if they will start Fernando Mendoza. It seems likely that the job will go to Kirk Cousins, at least in Week 1.
But maybe? If Stroud could put the Texans in the playoffs in 2023, and Jayden Daniels could put the Commanders into the playoffs in 2024, Mendoza certainly has a chance to be very good and put the Raiders into the playoffs in 2026. Probably not, but maybe.
If the Raiders get a great rookie season from him, it’s not ridiculous to think that they could have a top defense to go with it. The Raiders ranked 14th in defensive DVOA in 2025 and 18th the season before. They still have Maxx Crosby and made several free agent additions on that side of the ball. Again, probably not, but maybe.
One important note is that unlike most of the teams on this list, the Raiders likely won’t benefit from improved health in 2026. They already finished fifth in fewest adjusted games lost last season. Tennessee (11th) was the only other last-place team with a below-average number of injuries.
6. New York Jets
2025 record: 3-14
Odds of winning division: 1.2% (third in division)
Odds of making playoffs: 3.9% (30th in NFL)
The Jets aren’t the worst team in their division according to FPI! That would be the Dolphins. So while we have the Jets’ odds of winning an AFC East title very low, they aren’t the lowest.
The Jets are counting on a rebound from QB Geno Smith, who turns 36 in October. They’re also depending on a lot of highly drafted rookies to be useful players in the depth chart right away. The Jets had three first-round picks, and they’ll all play important roles: edge rusher David Bailey, receiver Omar Cooper Jr. and tight end Kenyon Sadiq. Second-round pick D’Angelo Ponds will be a starter, as well, at the nickelback position.
Most likely, those rookies will represent a range of performances, from excellent to disappointing. But the Jets need all four of them to be excellent right away if they’re going to make a run at their division foes, the Bills and Patriots.
The Jets did one thing well last season, and that was special teams play. New York had one of the top 10 special teams units measured by DVOA going back to 1977. The problem there is that special teams are much less consistent than offense or defense. Even if the Jets have a good special teams unit again, it’s very unlikely it will be as good as last season.
7. Cleveland Browns
2025 record: 5-12
Odds of winning division: 1.1% (fourth in division)
Odds of making playoffs: 5.5% (29th in NFL)
The problem with a team built entirely around defense is that defense is less consistent than offense from season to season. Just ask the Browns. In 2025, Cleveland had the worst offense in the league by DVOA but ranked eighth on defense. Two seasons ago, the Browns also had the worst offense in the league but ranked a poor 25th on defense with almost all the same players, including Myles Garrett.
Now the Browns will try to put a good defense on the field again -- but this time without Garrett. And will Cleveland’s offense be terrible again in 2025? It probably will, especially because there’s no reason to expect a huge improvement at the QB position. The starter might be Deshaun Watson, who is coming back from an Achilles injury and had a dismal 21.0 QBR two seasons ago. Or maybe it will be Dillon Gabriel, who had a slightly more impressive 31.4 QBR last season. Or Shedeur Sanders, who had an 18.9 QBR in 2025.
8. Arizona Cardinals
2025 record: 3-14
Odds of winning division: 0.1% (fourth in division)
Odds of making playoffs: 1.2% (32nd in NFL)
The Cardinals led the NFL in adjusted games lost last season; they were completely pummeled by injuries. They also faced the hardest schedule in the league by DVOA. These facts might make them an interesting prospect for 2026 improvement except for two things. First, they have questions up and down the roster, especially at the QB position. Second, they’re still going to have one of the hardest schedules in the league because they are stuck in the NFC West with the Seahawks, Rams and 49ers -- three of the five top teams in the league based on FPI.
That makes a division title almost absurdly unlikely for the Cardinals. They go into the season ranked 29th in FPI.
Even if 34-year-old QB Jacoby Brissett has his best season, and the defense improves enough to make the Cardinals one of the top 10 teams, they still have to hope that the Seahawks, Rams and 49ers all collapse. A Cardinals division title in 2026 might be the most unlikely division title in NFL history.
