Draft lottery win provides Leafs with ‘monumental opportunity’

The Maple Leafs held a Zoom media availability following the draft lottery on Tuesday night.

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After a disastrous season, the Leafs really needed a win. They got one on Tuesday night. The ping-pong balls bounced in Toronto’s favour at the NHL draft lottery and the franchise now owns the first overall pick at next month’s draft in Buffalo.

“Just really excited for the organization, for the fan base,” said new general manager John Chayka. “It’s a meaningful step and just elated.”

Mats Sundin, who just rejoined the organization as a senior executive advisor on Sunday, represented the team during the lottery broadcast.

“I’m extremely happy for the Toronto Maple Leaf fan base, of course,” said Sundin, who spent 13 seasons with the Leafs during his playing days. “Great night, great lottery.”

The Leafs entered the night with just an 8.5 per cent chance of securing the top pick after finishing fifth last overall in the 2025-26 season.

The stakes were high because if Toronto’s pick dropped to sixth or seventh overall it would shift to the Boston Bruins to complete last year’s Brandon Carlo trade.

“Well, you need some luck and we got that tonight,” Chayka said when asked what the lottery win means to the team. “Long road ahead, of course, lots of work to do still, but when you get a first overall pick, it’s a monumental type of opportunity. I think it’s a really good draft and a lot of good players, and it’s an honour to pick one overall.”

The Leafs have selected first overall just twice previously, taking Wendel Clark in 1985 and Auston Matthews in 2016. Toronto picked Matthews in Buffalo, which is also where this year’s draft will be held.

Toronto has picked no higher than 15th overall since adding Matthews. The Leafs run of nine straight playoff appearances came to a crashing halt this season.

The lottery win comes one day after Chaya and Sundin were officially unveiled as the new faces of the front office by MLSE president Keith Pelley at a news conference that featured some uncomfortable questions and tense moments.

How will the lottery win change things for the new management team?

“I don’t think it changes the vision or the strategy, but certainly when these things happen it can change course and timelines, etc.,” Chayka said. “But it’s not something that we’re gonna change how we think about things. It’s a fortuitous bounce.”

With Toronto retaining its pick this year, the Leafs no longer own their first-round selections in the 2027 and 2028 drafts. One of the picks will go to the Bruins and the other will go to the Philadelphia Flyers to complete last year’s Scott Laughton trade.

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Playmaking winger Gavin McKenna is considered the frontrunner to go first overall and TSN director of scouting Craig Button has the Leafs taking the Penn State product in his post-lottery mock draft.

“I’ve kept track of him for a number of years now and the skill level, the creativity, obviously the puck ability and then you know his shot and release is all pretty special,” Chayka said. “Good package and it’ll be good to get with the scouts and talk through it all. But I know there’s a lot of passion for a lot of players including Gavin.”

Do the Leafs have a fairly good idea what they’ll do with the first overall pick?

“The nice part is that I can answer honestly,” Chayka said with a smile. “We haven’t had scouting meetings yet. Second day on the job. So I think we’ll get together and we’ll go through everything as we should and be super diligent and make sure we know everything. I would say there’s always a lot of diligence when you’re picking first overall and making sure you nail it.”

Chayka served as general manager of the Arizona Coyotes for four seasons with his highest pick coming during the 2018 draft when the team picked centre Barrett Hayton from the Soo Greyhounds fifth overall.

Chayka listed hockey sense and competitiveness as key qualities he looks for in the draft.

“In terms of trading up and trading down, my history’s been that I’ve done both,” Chayka said. “I think it just matters how things fall and how you value the players and what the opportunities are and what teams are willing to offer, candidly. So, I’m always open to everything, but I do think when you get a chance to draft first overall it’s obviously a special opportunity.”

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Sundin, who was a first overall pick to the Quebec Nordiques in the 1989 draft, will be able to counsel whoever the Leafs select about dealing with the intense spotlight in Toronto.

“Well, listen, Toronto Maple Leafs is, in my opinion, the greatest hockey franchise in the world,” Sundin said. “It’s definitely the greatest fan base. It’s support right across not only in Ontario and Toronto, but across North America. I think it’s a great opportunity for whoever’s going to be first overall to come in and represent the Toronto Maple Leafs. So, I’m sure whoever it’s gonna be is really gonna enjoy it.”

While McKenna appears to be the frontrunner to go first overall, there are other strong contenders including Frolunda winger Ivar Stenberg, who helped Sweden win gold at the World Juniors.

“Well I think it’s a strong draft,” Sundin said when asked about his young countryman. “First round is really strong and Ivar’s had a strong season obviously ... So it’s gonna be interesting and a lot of looking at these different players now.”

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Leafs top picks since winning the draft lottery in 2016:

2025 - Tinus-Luc Koblar, 2nd round, 64th overall

2024 - Ben Danford, 1st round, 31st overall

2023 - Easton Cowan, 1st round, 28th overall

2022 - Fraser Minten, 2nd round, 38th overall

2021 - Matthew Knies, 2nd round, 57th overall

2020 - Rodion Amirov, 1st round, 15th overall

2019 - Nick Robertson, 2nd round, 53rd overall

2018 - Rasmus Sandin, 1st round, 29th overall

2017 - Timothy Liljegren, 1st round, 17th overall

2016 - Auston Matthews, 1st round, 1st overall