While other Canadian teams like Montreal Canadiens, Edmonton Oilers and Ottawa Senators battle for playoff berths and positioning, the only thing left to determine over the final four games of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ season is whether or not they’ll have a first-round selection in this year’s NHL Draft.
The 32-32-14 Maple Leafs have lost four of their past five games, including a 4-0 defeat to the Washington Capitals at home on Wednesday. Toronto now sits in 27th place - sixth worst in the NHL - with 78 points through 78 games, three points ahead of the Seattle Kraken and New York Rangers.
Toronto will hit the road to take on the New York Islanders on Thursday before coming home to host the Florida Panthers on Saturday and the Dallas Stars on Monday. They will close their season in the nation’s capital on Wednesday against the Ottawa Senators.
Here’s a look at the bottom of the NHL standings with the season ticking down:
| Team | NHL Rank | Games Remaining | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Canucks | 32 | 5 | 52 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 31 | 4 | 70 |
| Calgary Flames | 30 | 5 | 73 |
| New York Rangers | 29 | 3 | 75 |
| Seattle Kraken | 28 | 5 | 75 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 27 | 4 | 78 |
| Florida Panthers | 26 | 4 | 78 |
| St. Louis Blues | 25 | 5 | 78 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 24 | 5 | 80 |
Finishing in the bottom five at the conclusion of season is significant as it would heighten Toronto’s odds of keeping their first-round draft selection this summer, an important off-season for an organization that will miss the playoffs for the first time in nine years.
Ahead of the 2025 trade deadline, the Stanley Cup hopeful Maple Leafs, led by former general manager Brad Treliving, acquired veteran defenceman Brandon Carlo from the Boston Bruins in exchange for young forward Fraser Minten, a 2025 fourth-round pick and a 2026 top-five protected first-round pick which has become a major topic of conversation over the last few weeks of a miserable Maple Leafs’ 2025-26 season.
But there are no guarantees when it comes to the NHL Draft Lottery, which is expected to take place during the first week of May.
The Leafs could still nab a top-three pick if they finish outside of the bottom five by season’s end. Conversely, even if the Leafs plummet to the bottom five over the last four games, they could still be forced to hand over their first-rounder if the lottery balls don’t bounce their way.
Remaining sixth will result in an 84.6 per cent chance of the Leafs losing their first-round pick to the Bruins while bumping up (or down) one spot to fifth worst would mean they have a 41.9 per cent chance of keeping their pick.
Let’s take a look at some off the lottery odds the Maple Leafs are facing.
Maple Leafs’ Lottery Odds
| Rank | First Overall Odds | Odds to Keep Pick (Top Five) |
|---|---|---|
| 25th (8th last) | 6% | 12.4% |
| 26th (7th last) | 6.5% | 13.4% |
| 27th (6th last) | 7.5% | 15.4% |
| 28th (5th last) | 8.5% | 41.9% |
| 29th (4th last) | 9.5% | 79.3 |
| 30th (3rd last) | 11.5% | 100% |
Bold = Current position
If the Leafs are able to retain their top-five pick, things will be clearer for their yet-to-be named general manager this summer, but they will still have to deal with the consequences of the trade down the road.
The Maple Leafs would still owe the rival Bruins a first-round draft pick in the future. Making things more complicated is the fact the Leafs also acquired forward Scott Laughton, now a member of the Los Angeles Kings, and two late-round draft picks ahead of the 2025 deadline in exchange for winger Nikita Grebenkin and a top-10 protected draft pick in 2027.
Simply put, if the Leafs keep their pick this season, they would hope to turn their fortunes around quickly as they would lose their first-round picks in each of the 2027 and 2028 drafts to satisfy the Carlo and Laughton trades with Boston and Philadelphia.
With Anthony Stolarz possibly lost for the remainder of the season after suffering a lower-body injury early in Wednesday’s loss to the Caps, rookie goalie Artur Akhtyamov will get his first career start in the NHL on Thursday against the Isles.
The 24-year-old Russian has posted a 2.90 goals-against average and a .903 save percentage over 36 games with the American Hockey League’s Toronto Marlies this season.
We’ll have to see whether or not Akhtyamov has any rookie jitters or if the 2020 fourth-round pick puts up a premium performance against the Islanders.
Head coach Craig Berube also confirmed rookie forward Luke Haymes, signed as an undrafted free agent in March, will make his NHL debut on Thursday. The 22-year-old native of Ottawa has 17 goals and 15 assists over 64 games with the Marlies in 2025-26.
He previously played three seasons with Dartmouth College in the NCAA, registering 41 goals and 70 points in 83 career NCAA games.
Take a look at the latest version of Craig’s List as TSN’s Craig Button breaks down the top prospects for the 2026 NHL Draft which takes place June 26-27 in Buffalo.
