The Stanley Cup Playoffs have almost arrived, and with that comes eight incredible first-round matchups to analyze in this space.
We’ll start with the Eastern Conference, where the series were settled on Tuesday night, and look towards the Western Conference later this week.
[1] Carolina Hurricanes vs. [WC2] Ottawa Senators
What to Know: It’s hard to think of an organization under more pressure to deliver than the Carolina Hurricanes, in large part because of how dominant they have routinely been under the watchful eyes of head coach Rod Brind’Amour and general manager Eric Tulsky. Over the past five seasons, Carolina is +286 in goal differential, second to only that of the Colorado Avalanche. But postseason success has been harder to come by, and a lively first-round opponent awaits them in the form of the Ottawa Senators.
The Carolina advantage: Carolina’s played through several torturous playoff series over the years, hallmarked by an inability to turn dominant possession time and scoring chances into real goals. One thing that might help is playing against Ottawa’s goaltending, which was shockingly poor through large stretches of the season. In fact, the combination of starter Linus Ullmark and backups James Reimer and Leevi Merilainen, as a group, underperformed replacement-level goaltending on the year. The core problem there was Ullmark, who stopped just 89 per cent of shots faced this season. Ullmark is a much better goaltender than he’s shown this season, but if his underperformance continues into the playoffs, Carolina’s forwards will have a field day.
The Ottawa advantage: Perhaps it’s not an explicit advantage, but it is worth acknowledging this Senators team has been much better in the second half of the season. Since returning from the Olympic break, the Senators are 10th in even-strength goal differential (+0.5 per 60 minutes), 10th on the power play (8.7 goals per 60 minutes), and fifth on the penalty kill (5.6 goals against per 60 minutes). Those numbers are not just reflective of a quality playoff team; they are also in line with that of the Hurricanes over the same timeframe. Simply put, Ottawa has heated up at the right time and are playing better than the full-season numbers would suggest.
Player to watch: The aforementioned Ullmark is the easy answer – if he can give Ottawa just average goaltending in the series, the Senators are a very live underdog in this matchup. But I’m going to go with stalwart Senators defenceman Jake Sanderson here. The Hurricanes’ forecheck can completely take over games and Ottawa can ill afford to let Carolina dictate the pace of play in their defensive third for too long.Expect Sanderson to see significant head-to-head minutes against the likes of Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho, and Seth Jarvis.
Pick: Carolina in seven.
[1] Buffalo Sabres vs. [WC1] Boston Bruins
What to Know: The Buffalo Sabres ended a painful 14-year playoff drought with a bang in Lindy Ruff’s second year (and second stint) behind the bench, winning an ultra-competitive Atlantic Division. Buffalo has been one of the league’s deadliest scoring offences for several years now, in large part because so many of the prospects they have collected through the drought developed into productive NHL skaters. The rocket fuel that ended the drought, however, was receiving quality goaltending – journeyman Alex Lyon and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen were surprisingly one of the league’s better tandems, making Buffalo a serious threat to emerge from the Eastern Conference.
The Buffalo advantage: The Sabres may not have a Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon at the top of the lineup, but they are as deep as any team in the NHL. The Sabres can comfortably roll three high-powered lines and carry one of the league’s deepest bluelines to boot. Pay particular attention to the top pairing of Rasmus Dahlin and Mattias Samuelsson; they have outscored teams 47 to 29 (+18) at even strength this year and are outstanding in all three zones.
The Boston advantage: It starts and ends in net. Outside of David Pastrnak, no player has been more important to the Bruins’ success than Jeremy Swayman, who is deservedly getting serious Vezina Trophy consideration. Swayman was 52 goals better than replacement-level goaltending in 55 appearances – in other words, erasing nearly a goal per game over the course of the season. Great goaltending can single-handedly take down teams in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and unquestionably that’s the biggest risk for the Sabres in this series.
Player to watch: The Sabres are simply a much better team than the Bruins, though Swayman could be the ultimate X Factor. One other player the Sabres are surely focused on is Pastrnak. The Bruins are extremely reliant on Pastrnak’s playmaking to create offence – his 100-point season was 32 points clear of the Bruins second-leading scorer in Morgan Geekie (68).
Pick: Buffalo in six.
[2] Montreal Canadiens vs. [3] Tampa Bay Lightning
What to know: Not dissimilar to the Central Division’s two-versus-three matchup, this series feels way too good for the first round. Montreal and Tampa Bay cruised through the regular season but, owing to the Buffalo Sabres snagging the division on Monday night, will have to square off against one another in a rematch of the 2021 Stanley Cup Final.
The Montreal advantage: One thing that helps is having the hottest player in the NHL in your lineup, and that’s the case for the Canadiens and Cole Caufield. Questions around Caufield’s game – particularly his size – have been placed in the garbage can where they belong, with the 25-year-old sniper scoring 51 goals in a career year. He’s also part of one of the league’s most dominant first lines, typically featuring Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky. Suzuki and Slafkovsky are an incredible playmaking duo and when this line is together, the Canadiens are a runaway train, outscoring opponents 42 to 25 (+17) over the course of the season.
The Tampa Bay advantage: Tampa Bay is one of the few teams that can counter Montreal’s top-end talent, and that’s because they have a 32-year-old force of nature in Nikita Kucherov. Over the past four seasons, Kucherov’s totaled a staggering 506 points, second only to McDavid. Kucherov, playing primarily with Brandon Hagel and Brayden Point, has spearheaded the league’s second most prolific even-strength attack (3.0 goals per-60), trailing only that of the Avalanche.
Player to watch: The Canadiens were dealt a crushing blow late in the season with an injury to defenceman Noah Dobson. That’s going to put even more pressure on goaltender Jakub Dobes, the 24-year-old staring down the ice at a two-time Stanley Cup champion in the form of Andrei Vasilevskiy. For two teams so evenly matched, Montreal can ill afford a decline in net. It will be no small task for a goaltender getting his first taste of playoff action.
Pick: Tampa Bay in seven.
[2] Pittsburgh Penguins vs. [3] Philadelphia Flyers
What to know: Rick Tocchet and Dan Muse are on the short list for Jack Adams honours, and for good reason. Two teams amidst meaningful roster rebuilds had grim off-season point projections; oddsmakers priced the Flyers over/under at 83 points, the Penguins at 77 points. For the two teams that finished at the bottom of the Metro Division a season ago, it’s only right they meet in the Battle of Pennsylvania.
The Pittsburgh advantage: This series expects to be extremely physical and with that will likely come some additional penalties. The good news for Pittsburgh is there is absolutely zero to fear with Philadelphia and their 32nd-ranked power play (5.5 goals per 60 minutes). Tocchet has tried many different personnel groups, with little success. Only centre Trevor Zegras was able to find any degree of success up a man (nine goals with 21 points). It’s been a futile effort from the rest of the team.
The Philadelphia advantage: Tocchet has a reputation for instilling quality defensive structure, and he’s done it again in Philadelphia. The Flyers were a tough nut to crack defensively at 5-on-5, conceding goals on par with the likes of the Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning. However, they need to show this defensive prowess against Pittsburgh specifically this time around – the Penguins were one of the few teams in the league who had offensive success against this Flyers team, scoring 16 goals across four games.
Player to watch: Three-time Norris Trophy winners don’t go into the night quietly, and Erik Karlsson is perhaps the biggest reason the Penguins outperformed on the ice this season. Pittsburgh outscored opponents 73 to 53 (+20) with the veteran deployed at 5-on-5, playing primarily with Parker Wotherspoon. He isn’t the same player he once was, but few defenders in the league bring touch and playmaking ability from the blueline like he can.
Pick: Pittsburgh in six.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, HockeyViz, Hockey Reference
