The prize of the NHL summer is still available. The question is, how much is your team willing to give up to acquire 28-year-old Norris Trophy winner Zach Werenski?
It’s been a spending frenzy across the NHL over the last week or so, as teams wrestle with a significant upside change in the salary cap and deploy their capital accordingly.
There is no question the spending this summer has been inflationary; between Leo Carlsson’s $18-milllion AAV offer sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers, Bowen Byram’s $75-million extension with the Chicago Blackhawks, and Ivan Demidov’s $73-million extension in Montreal, teams have leaned aggressively into their newfound cap space, for better or worse.
And yet some teams have kept their powder dry, both from a salary cap perspective and a trade assets perspective. Perhaps a big reason why is it’s awfully rare for Norris Trophy-calibre defenders to become available at the peak of their playing prime.
Werenski and the Columbus Blue Jackets may be headed for a divorce, and the remaining two years on his contract look extremely tantalizing.
Werenski’s cap hit for the final two seasons clocks in at just $9.5-million AAV; reconcile that with another defender like Jacob Trouba, who just signed a new deal carrying a $8.3-million per-year cap charge with San Jose. These two defenders, in terms of quality, are galaxies apart, and yet because of the multi-year lift of the salary cap, appear relatively comparable on the balance sheet.
Werenski has recently indicated a willingness to stay in Columbus, but the odds of a trade remain elevated.
He has been a blue-chip player since entering the league in 2016-17, but offensively has taken his game to new heights in the past couple of seasons. Consider just his counting stats over the past two years relative to other defenders in the league – he’s tops in the NHL in even-strength scoring, and in all situations trails only the legendary Cale Makar in Colorado:
The scoring upside has brought Werenski into an elite class amongst defenders, but it’s important to recognize he’s been a dominant two-way player long before this scoring outbreak came about.
Despite playing on relatively weak Columbus rosters over the years, the Blue Jackets have been a force with him deployed. With the exception of his sophomore season and an injury-shortened 2022-23, the on-ice and off-ice splits with Werenski in Columbus have been extraordinary. Simply put, the Blue Jackets are a quality playoff team with Werenski on, and a draft lottery-bound team while he rests:
This run of continued outperformance on a team that’s been talent-challenged in the past is notable. One of the hallmarks of an elite defender (and one that likely will age well into the future) is an ability to thrive in any playing environment, capable of elevating the game of the players around him.
Werenski has done that in spades. His most common defensive partners in the past three seasons are Dante Fabbro and Damon Severson. Two solid NHL players, but not exactly the names you would pencil in for a first pairing at the NHL level. And yet Werenski’s made these tandems work with little issue.
It’s why he’s been so captivating as a player, and it’s why contenders around the league are digesting just how much they are willing to part with in future assets in what could be a colossal deal with Columbus.
The performance track record is spotless, he’s on the right side of 30, and has term on a contract that’s increasingly team friendly. If Columbus and Werenski are truly going to split, that combination puts the Blue Jackets in an intriguing position – one that surely maximizes the trade return in a prospective deal.
We know from reporting that Werenski already vetoed a trade to the Dallas Stars, and that his preferred destinations may be Tampa Bay or Toronto. Until a trade is effectuated, though, I wouldn’t count any team out in this sweepstakes.
He’s a game changer, and every front office in the league knows it.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey
