As Canada gets set to play South Africa Sunday in their first-ever knockout match at a World Cup, their path forward is beginning to take shape.
By no means should South Africa be taken lightly after keeping their World Cup hopes alive with a late equalizer against Czechia before upsetting South Korea to finish second in Group A.
But Canada does enter Sunday’s match as a favourite for good reason, and it’s worth exploring how their tournament could progress with a win.
Canada entered the World Cup sitting 30 spots ahead of South Africa in the FIFA rankings at No. 31 compared to South Africa’s No. 60. Ahead of the tournament, ESPN ranked South Africa 46th among the 48 nations, with Canada coming in at No. 25.
Watch Canada vs. South Africa LIVE Sunday at 3 p.m. ET/Noon PT on TSN, TSN.ca and the TSN App.
Canada enters the Round of 32 after a 1-1 draw against Bosnia and Herzegovina in their opener, a dominant 6-0 win over a nine-man Qatar side and a narrow 2-1 loss to Switzerland on Wednesday.
Canada pushed hard for an equalizer late against the Swiss after initially falling behind 2-0 early in the second half. A draw would have given Canada the top spot in Group B, which would have pushed their Round of 32 match to Thursday in Vancouver against a third-place finisher.
Striker Jonathan David described stoppage time as “kind of intense” as Canada fought to steal the group.
“You try not to look at the clock, because the more you look at it, the quicker time goes. But it’s garbage time,” David said. ”You have to just have to crash the box and get the crosses and make sure you make your chances happen, and put shots on target, and hopefully something falls. And we came really, really close.”
South Africa’s World Cup got off to an ugly start as the team picked up two red cards in a 2-0 loss to Mexico in the tournament opener. Hope was fading against Czechia in their second match before Teboho Mokoena converted a penalty to give the team a crucial point. Thapelo Maseko provided the crucial goal Wednesday in their 1-0 win over South Africa to take over second place in the group, earning a victory despite holding only 31 per cent possession.
Will Alphonso Davies play Sunday?
A potential X-factor against South Africa is the status of Canada’s captain Alphonso Davies, who has yet to play in the tournament due to a hamstring injury.
Head coach Jesse Marsch revealed Wednesday that Davies was used as a “decoy” in the group round and was never going to take the field.
Marsch said Davies will be ready to play Sunday, though it could be further gamesmanship on his part. Canada stopped providing injury updates prior to the win over Qatar, meaning little is known about Davies’ progress over the past two weeks.
“Alphonso wasn’t ready yet, but I wanted Switzerland to think about him and if you heard their press conference yesterday, they spoke about him a lot,” Marsch said “He was never ready to play today, but I used him as a decoy.
“He will be ready for the next match, though. We didn’t want to be in a situation where he could be in danger, but he will be ready for the next match.”
Canada will hope midfielder Stephen Eustáquio is able to return to the starting lineup against South Africa after entering as a substitute in the 58th minute against Switzerland. Centreback Moise Bombito could also potentially start for the first time in the tournament if deemed fit.
With a win over South Africa, who would Canada face?
Canada and South Africa will open play in the Round of 32 on Sunday, with the winner earning six days rest before playing in the Round of 16 on Saturday, July 4.
Awaiting the Canada-South Africa will be the victor of a heavyweight clash between Group F winner the Netherlands and Group C runner-up Morocco. Both sides enter their match on Tuesday with undefeated 2-0-1 records and both came in ranked in the top eight in the world.
Morocco sat seventh in the FIFA rankings ahead of the World Cup, with the Dutch just behind at No. 8. Morocco reached the semifinals at Qatar 2022, while the Netherlands fell to the eventual winners Argentina in penalties in the quarter-finals.
The Netherlands have made a history of being a tough out at the World Cup, having not lost in regulation since 2006.
Morocco tied Brazil 1-1 in their opener before picking up a 1-0 win over Scotland and a 4-2 victory of Haiti in the group round.
The Netherlands showed off their offence in Group F, earning a 2-2 draw against Japan before rolling past Sweden 5-1 and topping Tunisia 3-1.
The top section of the bracket doesn’t get any easier in the quarter-finals, where Germany or France likely await the team that emerges from Canada, Morocco, the Netherlands and South Africa.
Germany has clinched their spot as the winner of Group E, while France will clinch Group I with a result against Norway on Friday. The two sides would then be on track for a massive Round of 16 meeting between the third-ranked team in France and the 10th-ranked Germans.
For now, it’s probably best to keep the focus on Canada making history one step at a time. The team has already record its first World Cup point, win, and advancement out of the group stage for the first time in history at this year’s tournament.
Is a knockout round win next?
“We’re going to focus on the response,” Marsch said following the loss to Switzerland. “We’re exactly where we want to be.”
