3rd And 1: Best Bets for CFL Week 11

Ouch. Tough week 10. A feeling of dread formed in my gut as I watched the Stamps somehow squander the lead despite getting gifted five turnovers from the Argos last Thursday night. That gut gurgle only intensified as the weekend wore on. It crescendoed as I watched the ever-dependable and almost always sure-handed Keon Hatcher bobble an easy throw from Nathan Rourke on Saturday night. It tipped off his fingertips and into the hands of a Ti-Cats defender behind him. I had to chuckle, through the tears. He caught just two of the balls thrown to him for 28 yards, his lowest total in almost two years. As he stared at the scoreboard afterwards, I could see that we shared the same feeling of malaise in our midsections. Luckily the look on his face helped to alleviate my tummy trouble. Flush it and re-focus.

BC Lions at Calgary Stampeders

Nathan Rourke admitted to dealing with rust in his return from a shoulder injury last Saturday night. The Lions still took the lead on a late field goal to spoil Harrison Frost’s first CFL start. It’s a short turnaround for BC in Calgary to kickoff week 11, but hopefully there’s a bitter taste left by last week’s less than impressive victory. The Stamps defence is second last in the league in points and yards allowed to opposing offences, but it was the offence that let them down in Toronto. Vernon Adams and company couldn’t capitalize on the favourable field position that was given to them. The Argos limited the run game and too often the Stamps couldn’t move the sticks. The Lions have the best run defence in the league, allowing just over 60 yards per game, which is 17 fewer yards than the next closest team. BC has won two in a row to get to 3-5. They can leapfrog Calgary in the West with a win, but we just need them to keep it relatively close.

THE PICK: LIONS +4.5

PLAYER PROP PARLAY

‘Keon Hatcher led the league in receiving last season by over 400 yards. With Nathan Rourke as his quarterback, Hatcher averaged over 95 yards a game. With the reigning MOP returning, I think he’ll put his favourite target to work.’

That’s what I wrote last week. Short. Simple. Makes sense. Everything about it was right. He had the work. Nathan Rourke threw it to him six times despite missing on four of them. He was also charged with an interception for having faith in his number one receiver. I expect Hatcher to reimburse Rourke this week. Guilt should give him some extra giddy up.

James Butler’s injury gave Zander Horvath his opportunity, and it didn’t take long for Horvath to take the job. He’s been a beast, breaking tackles, and bouncing off defenders to the tune of over 250 yards and four touchdowns in the last two weeks. The Stamps allow the third most rushing yards in the league.

KEON HATCHER 60+ RECEIVING YDS / ZANDER HORVATH 40+ RUSHING YDS (-122)

Ottawa Redblacks at Winnipeg Blue Bombers

The Redblacks are bound to win a game eventually, right? After all, they should have beat the Bombers the last time these teams played. The spread is less than a touchdown, enticingly thin against a winless team. The Bombers have been vulnerable this season, even at home. With Zach Collaros back, it could give them a boost, but I’ll wait and see what happens in Winnipeg before passing judgment on the Blue and Gold.

THE PICK: NO PICK

Toronto Argonauts at Edmonton Elks

Chad Kelly saw his receiver in one-on-one coverage against the Calgary last week. He dropped back and threw a touch pass with perfect arc for Damonte Coxie to lay out for a big gain. It was the first of four quick completions that resulted in an Argos touchdown. The next series, Kelly missed his target on first down. His next pass landed in the arms of a Stamps DB without an Argos player within ten yards. Kelly’s only hope of it not being intercepted was if the four defenders who were in range knocked it out of each other’s hands. When Kelly releases the ball, there could be a wide range of outcomes. I’m sure it’s frustrating for fans and coaches at times but even with four interceptions, he still finished with 349 yards and a victory. No quarterback can score more quickly than Kelly. The Argos can erase a double-digit deficit, even when they make infuriating mistakes along the way.

THE PICK: ARGONAUTS +3.5

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Hamilton Tiger-Cats

Harison Frost didn’t have many words for Farhan Lalji as he walked off the field with the lead at halftime of his first CFL start. When the panel appeared, Milt Stegall poignantly translated his seemingly ornery mood to be because his opportunity came three weeks past due. Henoc Muamba was chuckling, I laughed out loud. Frosty ‘the throw-man’ gave the Ti-Cats a chance to win. Or more importantly it made them believe they could win, which is a feeling many thought they were lacking with Tre Ford at quarterback. Hamilton’s defence is keeping them in games. The Riders have been the second-best team in the league, but the defending champs are piling up injuries. As good as Trevor Harris has been, I expect Hamilton to play hard.

THE PICK: TIGER-CATS +7.5