Back in December, I told everyone to fire away on France to lift the trophy this summer at +700 at FanDuel.
On Tuesday, they took another step towards cashing that ticket with another dominant performance.
France cruised to a 3-0 win over Sweden in the Round of 32, becoming the first team in tournament history to score three or more goals in five straight matches.
The plus-three goal differential was France’s largest margin of victory in a knockout stage match on soccer’s biggest stage since a 3-0 win over Brazil in the 1998 Final.
It’s also the second time ever that France has opened with four straight wins and the first since 1998 when it went on to lift the trophy on home soil.
Kylian Mbappe’s delivered his fourth career multi-goal in the knockout stage – twice as many as any other player in tournament history.
Mbappe is now tied with Lionel Messi for the tournament lead with six goals and one behind him for the most all-time.
With the deepest and arguably the most talented roster in the tournament, France was always going to be a tough out for any opponent.
Paraguay’s upset versus Germany in the Round of 32 has led to France becoming an even bigger favourite to reach the quarterfinals at FanDuel.
Paraguay is +1080 to upset France in the Round of 16.
For perspective, five teams currently have shorter odds to lift the trophy at FanDuel.
France is at the top of that list at +185 as the favourite.
At the very least, anybody who played France at +700 to lift the trophy will have an excellent opportunity to hedge their bets entering the Round of 16.
Meanwhile, Mexico to lift the trophy has gone from +5500 pre-tournament to +3000 after a 2-0 win over Ecuador to punch their ticket to the Round of 16.
Norway, which beat Cote d’Ivoire 2-1 on the strength of Erling Haaland’s game-winning goal in the 86th minute, remains at +3500 to lift the trophy at FanDuel thanks to a path that could potentially feature matches versus Brazil, England, and Argentina just to reach the final.
Norway opened +182 to advance versus Brazil in the Round of 16 at FanDuel – a 35.5 per cent implied chance.
Turning the page this morning, we’ve got three more Round of 32 matches on deck beginning at noon ET.
Over the past 24 hours, Canada’s odds to advance versus Morocco in the Round of 16 have been cut from +245 to +215 at FanDuel.
Fortunately, the country can sit back, relax, and enjoy a full day of tournament action, Free Agent Frenzy, and anything else they have planned for Canada Day without the stress of cheering on the men’s national team.
Let’s set the stage for today’s action and locked in a FanDuel Best Bet in this Morning Coffee column for Wednesday July 1st, 2026.
Should USA, Belgium Be On Upset Alert In Round of 32?
Paraguay was +480 to advance versus Germany.
For perspective, those odds represented a 17.2 per cent implied probability they would pull off the upset, with a $10 wager paying $48 at FanDuel.
Meanwhile, Morocco was +130 to upset the Netherlands in the Round of 32.
While the favourites swept the board in Tuesday’s action, FanDuel bettors are banking on the underdogs pulling off some surprises today.
Senegal is +140 to advance versus Belgium.
Per the FanDuel traders, 68 per cent of the bets and 65 per cent of the stakes are on Senegal to advance.
Ismaila Sarr is the most popular anytime goal scorer bet in the match at +290 odds.
Meanwhile, the USA is a massive -550 favourite versus Bosnia & Herzegovina.
However, 65 per cent of the bets and 64 per cent of the stakes are Bosnia & Herzegovina to advance at +410.
For perspective, a $10 bet on Bosnia & Herzegovina to advance would pay $41 – not as much as a Paraguay upset, but enough that FanDuel bettors are willing to roll the dice on the upset.
First up, England will face off with DR Congo in one of the more lopsided matchups of the Round of 32 on paper.
England to advance is -800 at FanDuel this morning – that number represents an 88.9 per cent implied probability.
Harry Kane is by far the most popular anytime goal bet.
Jude Bellingham is another popular choice at +290 to score an anytime goal and +800 to score the first goal.
Unlike in the other two matches, England to advance has attracted 63.5 per cent of the stakes as the favourite.
As for a FanDuel Best Bet, I’m going to lock in a Same Game Parlay with England to win in 90 minutes and go over 1.5 total goals in 90 minutes at -169.
England is -800 to advance and I believe that number is justified against a DR Congo side that is very fortunate to have reached the Round of 32.
After surprising with a 1-1 draw versus Portugal in their opener, DR Congo lost 1-0 to Colombia and needed a win over Uzbekistan to advance.
They trailed 1-0 late in that game before scoring three goals in the 68th minute or later to win and advance.
After conceding a goal in each of their three group stage matches, I’m expecting that trend to continue against the toughest opponent they will have faced in England.
England was criticized for a 0-0 draw with Ghana, but they had plenty of opportunities to finish in that match and just couldn’t bury them.
That same side did score four goals against Croatia and two versus Panama, and I’m expecting England’s attack to be at its best in arguably its most favourable matchup of the tournament to date.
The Three Lions have reached at least the semifinals in three of their last four major tournaments and they have a golden opportunity to advance to the Round of 16 with a statement victory over DR Congo today.
Hopefully, England can deliver and extend our streak to 10 straight FanDuel Best Bet winners for the tournament.
Happy Canada Day, everyone!
