3rd And 1: Best Bets for Week 15 of the CFL season

All nine teams are in playoff contention two thirds of the way through the season. The summer sun still lingers, but the frost is fast approaching. With six games left to play, just two points separate five teams fighting for a pair of playoff spots. The ground is less forgiving as the battle above it intensifies. Not included among those five teams mentioned, is the Bombers who just lost Zach Collaros to a recurring head injury. At 6-6, their grip on third place in the West is tenuous at best. The five-time West Division champs were always gearing up to play for the 112th Grey Cup in front of their home fans. Instead, it’s an all-out playoff push with Chris Streveler under centre, at least in the short term.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Hamilton Tiger-Cats

Belief in the Bombers is waning. They’re now the sixth choice to win it all at Fanduel and they’re underdogs by a touchdown tonight in Hamilton. The Ti-Cats got back on track with last week’s win in Montreal. It was a comfortable win with James Morgan leading the Als offence. It’ll be McLeod Bethel-Thompson this week and I’m staying away from what I fear could be a potential upset in Saskatchewan. MBT has a healthy arsenal of weapons against a depleted Riders secondary… but I digress.

As good as the Ti-Cats have looked for most of this season, they’re 2-3 at home straight up, and 1-4 against the spread. The Bombers defence will take added ownership with their offensive leader out. Chris Streveler has had a week’s worth of practice to prepare as the starter, and I believe they’ll game plan to his strengths. Streveler has eight interceptions in 105 pass attempts this season. In the words of Phil Kessel: Not good eh? Expect a healthy dose of ground and pound with Streveler and Brady Oliveira. While I believe the Bombers can keep it within a touchdown, I feel better about their ability to slow the game down, at least for a few quarters.

THE PICK: UNDER 51.5 TOTAL POINTS

PLAYER PROP: KENNY LAWLER OVER 70.5 RECEIVING YARDS

After everything I just wrote about the Bombers, I think they’ll struggle to contain their old teammate tonight. This is Kenny Lawler’s first crack at his former squad. While the league’s second leading receiver has slowed down since the start of the season, largely due to the attention he’s getting, he’s gone over this number in back-to-back games. It seems like Bo Levi Mitchell is making an extra effort to get him the ball, even in tight coverage, with 19 targets in the last two weeks.

Ottawa Redblacks AT BC Lions

I’ve said this before

Feels like this spread could be more,

They better restore the roar.

A little poem I wrote about the Lions before they completely collapsed in the 4th quarter of last week’s loss in Ottawa. Even after surrendering 13 points in the 3rd, BC had a double-digit lead heading into the final frame. 18 Redblacks points later, for a total of 31 in the second half, and a road win for the Lions to get back to .500 for the season evaporated into the air above the Rideau Canal. I’m daring Dustin Crum to do it again. After being mauled repeatedly, and without any working limbs, my lower lip is dragging me back into the Lions Den.

THE PICK: LIONS -9.5

Edmonton Elks at Toronto Argonauts

Last week I mused about the Argos bye potentially stalling their momentum. And like clockwork, Chad Kelly created a bit a controversy in the quarterback room. Nick Arbuckle leads the league in passing yards has led the boatmen to back-to-back wins while throwing six touchdowns without an interception. But Ryan Dinwiddie still had to answer questions about who was going to start at quarterback this week. There’s no question about who is leading the Elks onto the field. Since Cody Fajardo took over as the starter, Edmonton is 6-1 against the spread. The Elks are a CFL best 4-1 since week 10 and the defence hasn’t allowed more than 28 points against since week 6. On the flip side, the Argos recent success is all because of offence. They’re allowing as league worst 32.3 points per game, and let’s not forget that Edmonton won 28-20 at home when these teams last played a month ago.

THE PICK: ELKS +3.5

Bonus PLAYER PROP: JUSTIN RANKIN OVER 59.5 RUSHING YARDS

Fresh off 204 rushing yards last week, it’s hard not to get excited about him going over 59.5 on Saturday. The Argos not only allow the most points in the league they give up the most rushing yards as well. If Rankin’s not too tired, the only threat to his rushing total is his effectiveness in the pass game. Rankin had 92 rushing yards and almost as many receiving yards (87) against the Argos in week 11, but there have been other times where they’ve abandoned the run. Does last week change that moving forward? After watching Rankin run for almost 13 yards a carry against Calgary, I can’t imagine they’ll forget to hand him the ball.