As a Toronto-based writer, I need to pour one out before looking ahead to Round 2.
The Raptors walked into Opening Night expected to win 39.5 games, weren’t even projected to finish in the Top 8 and held 150-to-1 odds to win the chip back in October.
They wound up earning the fifth seed and took the Cleveland Cavaliers to seven games, a team that opened with the second-shortest odds to win the championship behind the Oklahoma City Thunder.
This was done without Immanuel Quickley for the entire series and Brandon Ingram missing 2.5 games.
That’s $70.5 million left on the sidelines, 45.6 percent of the salary cap.
Credit to the young core who stepped up, scaled up, and punched well above their weight class.
Rookie Collin Murray-Boyles and sophomores Ja’Kobe Walter and Jamal Shead gave the fanbase a lot to look forward to.
Scottie Barnes emerged as the best player in the series ahead of a hall of famer and an All-NBA first team player.
RJ Barrett competed at a level that likely forces the front office’s hand in the face of all the trade rumours.
But as quickly as their locker rooms were emptied out the day after, the NBA immediately marched onto the semifinals the day after.
Three of the eight remaining teams were underdogs to advance, while the top-seeded Pistons had to pull off a 3-1 comeback to escape Round 1.
It’s safe to say this hasn’t been a typical postseason for a league that’s historically chalk to open.
With one game in the books for each series, we’ve gotten a glimpse of what challenges each team will encounter in the semis.
Even though it’s easy to overreact to what we saw, observations are observations.
Betting ahead of Game 1 is a lot of guess work and assumptions.
Betting after Game 1 provides concrete film to base your bets on.
Heading into Game 2 for all four series, here is one bet per matchup that I’m eyeing.
New York Knicks [3] vs. Philadelphia 76ers [7]
I saw enough in Game 1 to conclude that Karl-Anthony Town’s passing bump is legit.
After logging two triple-doubles against Atlanta, he posted a strong six assist performance in just 20 minutes on Monday to maintain a 6.0 apg average through seven games.
Even though he finished with 3.0 apg during the regular season, he’s become more involved in New York’s offensive actions above the break.
All of these high pick-and-rolls with their ball handlers has created more space in the interior while also opening KAT as a threat to strike from deep.
When you review the Game 1 film, it was clear that the Knicks coaching staff wanted KAT dragging out Joel Embiid or Andre Drummond as far from the rim as possible.
The byproduct of this for New York was 58 points in the paint which is above Minnesota’s playoff-leading 56.6 PITP per game.
Four of KAT’s six dimes resulted in layups for his teammates.
He’s been patiently letting plays develop and quick to distribute the ball when an advantage was spotted.
The line has moved up, but at plus-money I think there continues to be value in his passing.
The Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns over 4.5 assists (+112)
San Antonio Spurs [2] vs. Minnesota Timberwolves [6]
After watching this game, I’m not going to pretend like I unearthed any profound observations.
Victor Wembanyama looks like a lion timing his pounce on every defensive possession.
Anthony Edwards looking the way he does just nine days after his injury is shocking.
I continue to be impressed by Jaden McDaniels’ two-way play.
I come away from Game 1 having one primary thought – these teams are way more evenly matched than the spread suggests.
If you’re going to have any centre stand opposite Wemby, Rudy Gobert is about as good of a choice as you can call for.
Their added history as countrymen also gives me extra confidence Gobert will find a way to hang.
The other conclusion I came away with – Minnesota very clearly looked like the more seasoned team (especially in clutch time).
That’s the major knock on this Spurs team heading into this run.
De’Aaron Fox is the only starter with any postseason experience – one seven-game series losing to the Golden State Warriors.
Minnesota is coming off back-to-back Conference Finals appearances and demonstrated they have the depth to fill the gap left by Donte DiVincenzo.
They get a big addition with Ayo Dosunmu back for Game 2.
Don’t sleep on the Timberwolves.
The Pick: Minnesota +10.5 (-114)
Detroit Pistons [1] vs. Cleveland Cavaliers [4]
Daniss Jenkins really caught my attention in this game providing a release valve for Detroit’s heliocentric offence.
He closed out the game ahead of Ausar Thompson in clutch time which was eye-opening.
When Cade Cunningham returned with 5:28 to go, it was Thompson who took a seat versus Jenkins.
The game was 93-93 at that time; Detroit wound up winning 111-101.
In the first round, Jenkins wasn’t a matchup fit given Orlando’s size.
Considering Cleveland’s personnel and who they handed out minutes to, Jenkins projects to play a bigger role in the semis.
Donovan Mitchell and James Harden logged 35+ minutes which was expected.
Of Cleveland’s 89 bench minutes, 79 were allocated to perimeter players.
It might be an overreaction to assume Jenkins’ 13 field-goal attempts sustain, but I wouldn’t be shocked if his minutes finished somewhere between 20-25 for the series.
Jenkins gives Detroit a steady tertiary playmaker, one who wasn’t afraid to hunt his own offence when opportunities arose.
He played 28:46 minutes in Game 1; no other reserve logged more than 13 minutes.
The Pick: Daniss Jenkins over 8.5 points (-110)
Oklahoma City Thunder [1] vs. Los Angeles Lakers [4]
Here’s a hot take – OKC’s offence isn’t elite.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to win his second consecutive MVP trophy, he’s shooting a career-best 55.3 percent from the field and leads the league again with 7.9 free-throw makes a night.
But like many of today’s modern offences, if their three-pointers aren’t falling, there are times their halfcourt offence struggles to generate points.
Up against the Lakers, they went through a few dry spells.
What got them out of the mud was their tenacious defence, which flipped into fastbreak points.
When OKC is able to pile on the “pick-sixes”, that’s when they start blowing out teams.
They led the league with 22.0 points off of turnovers in the regular season and sit second in the postseason only behind the Raptors.
Another part of their defence that coincides with their turnover generation is their help defence in the paint.
OKC’s defensive rating is elite because nothing comes easy in and around the rim.
They are allowing the second-fewest postseason points in the paint at 41.6 a night.
Deandre Ayton did a good job to open the game burying his first five field-goal attempts.
But the Thunder tightened up in the middle of the second quarter forcing him to miss his next seven shots.
The former first-overall pick had a strong game crashing the glass and I’d predict OKC focuses on that in Game 2.
During the regular season, Ayton played four games against the Thunder logging 6, 6, 8, and 3 points.
OKC wasn’t sharp in Game 1 and I’m anticipating an even better performance defensively in Game 2.
The Pick: Deandre Ayton under 9.5 points (-112)
