Super Bowl LX is finally here.
After two weeks of crunching the numbers and watching film, members from our betting team have settled on their favourite plays for the final game of this NFL season.
It looks like Canada is riding with tails for the Flip of Destiny but you still have time to vote before kickoff.
Domenic Padula: Stefon Diggs fastest ball carrier speed under 18.5 miles per hour
It’s fascinating that the final player prop I gave out in my Morning Coffee columns leading up to Super Bowl 60 ended up as the one I passed along to Luke for the purposes of this column. The reality is that many of the early numbers that I gave out early last week are no longer available. Meanwhile, FanDuel’s seemingly endless list of player props has created some unique opportunities in the final days before Super Bowl 60. I played Diggs over 4.5 receptions +102 on the Monday after Championship Sunday. Nearly two weeks later, the over 4.5 is -130. While Diggs should see his fair share of targets once again, I made this bet my favourite for Super Bowl 60 based largely on how the veteran wide receiver has been used by the Patriots. Diggs led the team with 85 receptions in the regular season. He’s added 11 more this postseason. Despite all of the touches, Diggs has been tracked by NFL Next Gen Stats running faster than 18.5 miles per hour with the ball in his hands a grand total of... one time this season. While Diggs has been one of the most reliable pass catchers in the NFL, he hasn’t been a burner. That trend has carried over to these playoffs, as his 11 catches have gone for just 73 receiving yards. Diggs is an excellent route runner who can get open with his quickness, but he isn’t a burner that’s going to catch the ball and stride and run away from the defence unless there’s a massive mistake in the secondary. Seattle’s defence is one of the best in the NFL. The Seahawks have done a tremendous job of limiting big plays in the passing game and even if somebody on the Patriots roster gets loose for a long play in this one, I don’t think it will be Diggs. Give me Diggs’ fastest ball carrier speed under 18.5 miles per hour as my FanDuel Best Bet for Super Bowl 60. Hopefully, it’s one of many best bet winners we celebrate on Sunday.
Connor Ford: Rhamondre Stevenson Drive 1 5+ Rushing Yards (+102)
My dad always told me that delayed gratification is something I should strive for. However, when it comes to the Super Bowl, it’s hard for me to resist the temptations. I’m an impatient bettor. Why wait the entire game for your bet to cash when you can be a winner in the first five minutes?
There’s no doubt in my mind that Mike Vrabel will want to establish the run early and often. The Patriots ranked 6th in rush percentage this season (47.3%) and 2nd in first quarter rushing yards and attempts. You can always feel the tension and nerves early in the Super Bowl while players settle into the game. My guess is that Drake Maye will be handing the ball off to start this game rather than throwing bombs down the field.
Rhamondre Stevenson has clearly taken over as the lead running back for the Patriots during this final stretch of the season. Since Week 13, he’s played 65.6% of the offensive snaps compared to just 36.1% for TreVeyon Henderson. In those eight games, this bet has only failed to cash once. I would be stunned if Stevenson isn’t in on the first drive. All he need is a couple of carries. Let’s start off Super Bowl 60 with a green bet slip!
George Holani over 1.5 receptions (-140)
I’ll take a second to toot my own horn heading into Super Bowl 60. It’s been a profitable playoff run with my Best Bets going 3-0. First, it was Romeo Doubs who tripled his receiving yards total in the Wild Card round. Then DJ Moore went over his number on the Bears firs play from scrimmage in the Divisional round. Colby Parkinson was a little slower to surpass his total in the NFC championship but still got there before the sweat started. Sunday in Santa Clara, I’m going with the Seahawks backup running back.
Full disclosure, I hadn’t paid any attention to George Holani until Klint Kubiak repeatedly called his number in the NFC championship game. He only had three carries for four yards, but Holani made hay in the pass game. He had four targets, catching three passes for 27 yards. His usage was as impressive as the production. He was on the field for 23 offensive snaps amounting to a 34 percent snap share. Holani was handling all that in his return from a hamstring injury that’s sidelined him since week 12. An extra two weeks can only help.
Kenneth Walker has been the featured back since the ACL injury to Zach Charbonnet. But while Walker’s scored four touchdowns, he still hasn’t played more than 63 percent of the Seahawks snaps in the playoffs. Walker was always considered a less effective pass protector than his stable mate, and that appears to be true even with Charbonnet on the shelf. Holani was on the field for most 3rd downs and during the 2-minute drill at the end of the first half against the Rams. Assuming the Seahawks aren’t up by several scores on Sunday, Holani will get his opportunities underneath. The more I think about the matchup, the more I like the Patriots, which bodes well for this pick. All three of my playoff Best Bets have been on players from the losing team.
Luke Bellus: Over 133.5 million Bad Bunny Halftime Show - Total Global Viewers
The Super Bowl is my favoruite time to dip into novelty markets on FanDuel, so let’s see if we can find a winner again this year.
Last year Kendrck Lamar’s halftime show had an audience of 133.5 million, breaking the record for most viewers that was previously held by Micheal Jackson.
Well, records were made to be broken.
Looking on Spotify, Kendrick Lamar has 73.7 monthly listeners. Bad Bunny has 87.4 million.
So, sure. Some Americans are going to turn off the halftime show when it airs, but given the larger international recah of Mr. Bunny’s audience and I think this number could go way over the total listed.
If you’re not interested in a novelty prop, my only other bets for the game will be a halftime tie, AJ Barner over 0.5 rushing yards and a Drake Maye rushing touchdown. Play those three together for 75-1 odds on FanDuel.
