Week 14 of the NFL Season has arrived, and we are back with another set of Best Bets from our TSN Betting team.
If you’re looking for more plays, check out Domenic Padula’s Week 14 Playbook for all of TSN’s lead sports betting analysts’ plays for the day
Let’s get to the action. Here are our team’s best bets.
Domenic Padula: Broncos SGP +100: Broncos win, Bryant 15+ receiving, Engram 15+ receiving
We’ve got several key games on tap for NFL Sunday, Week 14, but somehow I ended up with one of the ugliest for my FanDuel Best Bet. The Broncos are in contention for the NFL’s best record at 10-2, but they really need more from their quarterback Bo Nix. Denver should be able to run the football this afternoon, but they also need to get their QB going against a defence that has allowed the third-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. Bryant has been a revelation for the Broncos with steady progress throughout his rookie seaso,n and his receiving yards prop has climbed to 30.5 for today’s game at FanDuel. Meanwhile, Engram had 5+ targets in three straight games and might need only one or two today to get to 15 yards. It isn’t pretty, but it’s my best bet.
Connor Ford: Chase Brown 18+ Receiving Yards (-115)
It’s great to see Joe Burrow back on the football field again. It’s also a great thing for running back Chase Brown, who caught all seven of his targets against the Ravens last week. The Bills haven’t been a great matchup for RBs through the air, but I’m still expecting Brown to see plenty of looks on Sunday.
Brown’s profile as a pass-catcher is secure - he ranks top five in targets, receptions and routes run at the running back position. He’s also posted a strong 22.4% TPRR, which ranks 8th among RBs with at least 30 targets. The Bengals are near the top of the league in pass rate and they should continue chuck it in a game with one of the highest totals of the week.
Brown is averaging nearly 39 receiving yards per game in his last five. He’s also recorded at least 18 receiving yards in nine of his last 11 games in which Joe Burrow has started. Burrow is more than willing to take the checkdown, especially as he continues to shake the rust off. Brown to record 18+ receiving yards is my Week 14 best bet.
Drew Morrison: Tyjae Spears over 16.5 receiving yards (-112)
The bad news is I’m mired in my worst slump of the season. The good news: It’s only been two weeks since my last winner.
At first glance, betting on the backup running back for a 1-11 team against one of the best defences in the league isn’t exactly a ‘lock’. History could be made on the Cuyahoga River Sunday afternoon. Myles Garrett is four sacks shy of the single-season record, and Cam Ward holds the ball longer than any starter this season. How will Cam Ward avoid being part of a Myles Garrett meme? Keep feeding the ball to the running backs. Despite his ineffectiveness in the run game, Tyjae Spears has at least three catches and 18 yards in seven straight games. He’s averaged five catches and over 25 yards three weeks in a row. For his own survival, expect Ward to make a lot of quick throws, hopefully to Spears.
Luke Bellus: New Orleans Saints +7.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It’s December, which means it’s time to plug your nose and back some underdogs in divisional games.
Take a scroll through the right parts of film-watching X, and you’ll see people claim Saints’ QB Tyler Shough deserves some more praise.
Take a scroll through the right parts of Survivor Football X, and you’ll see a majority of people still have Tampa Bay in the tuck as a touchdown favourite today.
Take a frisky Saints team, paired with December chalk for survivor, and you have an equation that could equal Upset City for me, and a lot of other Bucs ML backers.
In their last 10 games as road divisional dogs, the Saints are 9-1 ATS. And the team is a perfect 10-0 ATS the last 10 games facing an opponent who beat them earlier in the season.
As someone going with Tampa in Survivor, I’m hoping to land somewhere in the middle. But I’m scared.
Be scared with me.
