Game of Throws: Navigating QB scarcity is the puzzle all 32 NFL teams must solve

Quarterback scarcity.

It’s the single biggest obstacle for NFL teams to navigate.

There simply aren’t enough quality quarterbacks to start for all 32 NFL teams.

Most teams without a QB1 entered this offseason searching for a solution under pressure, chasing ghosts ahead of free agency and the 2026 NFL Draft.

Meanwhile, the lucky teams that have a franchise QB have been forced to tie up so much salary cap space that they’re left cutting corners as they attempt to build a legitimate Super Bowl contender around them.

The Las Vegas Raiders will select Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Mendoza to go No. 1 overall is -20000 at FanDuel.

Transparently, that might still be decent value considering how desperate the teams at the top of the draft board are for a franchise quarterback.

The New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, and Atlanta Falcons are desperate to find a franchise QB.

The New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Carolina Panthers, and Indianapolis Colts aren’t as desperate right now, but each of those franchises have question marks at the position for this upcoming season and beyond.

Then there’s teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, and the Kansas City Chiefs.

All four franchises paid their starting quarterback upwards of $40 million last season.

All four franchises failed to make the playoffs.

In fact, the 10 highest paid QBs in the NFL last season were Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson.

Sure, paying Tua was a mistake the Dolphins must regret.

Still, that top 10 list features some of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL, so what can we take from the fact that none of them made it to a conference championship game?

Five of the 10 highest paid QBs missed the playoffs.

The NFL’s final four featured the 16^th, 18^th, 28^th, and the 40^th-highest paid quarterbacks.

Two of those four quarterbacks are still on rookie deals.

The eventual Super Bowl-winning quarterback was available to all 32 NFL teams as a free agent before ultimately signing a three-year, $100.5 million contract with the Seattle Seahawks.

The NFL has a quarterback scarcity problem that is far more complex than just finding a serviceable arm.

The teams that don’t have a capable QB1 don’t have a chance.

The teams that do have a capable QB are forced to figure out how to build a winning roster around him long term with major restrictions.

That’s why the Indianapolis Colts and Daniel Jones are reportedly so far away in talks for a contract extension.

If the Colts pay Jones big money, they won’t have enough left over to insulate him with the weapons that helped him succeed in his first season in Indianapolis.

If they don’t pay Jones, they’ll eventually re-enter the lottery of teams searching for a franchise quarterback.

This is how we get to the point when Peter Schrager thinks it would be a slam dunk for the New York Jets to trade up for consensus No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza.

In a league hurt by QB scarcity, a capable pivot on a rookie contract is the most lucrative asset you can find.

Unfortunately for the several teams looking for a QB beyond the Raiders, there’s only one option available in this year’s NFL Draft that is considered a slam dunk to be worth a first-round pick.

As for free agency, Jones appears to be headed back to Indianapolis, leaving Malik Willis, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, and Jimmy Garoppolo as the options available on the open market.

How many teams are willing to make a long-term commitment to Willis as their franchise quarterback?

With so few options available, it will be fascinating to see what kind of deal Willis signs this offseason.

The NFL’s quarterback crunch isn’t going away.

With free agency next week and the NFL Draft just over a month away, it will be fascinating to see how all 32 teams approach the offseason.

There’s a massive divide between the teams that have a capable QB1 and the teams that do not.

Even if you find a franchise quarterback, there’s no guarantee you will be able to build a Super Bowl contender around him.

Then again, if you don’t have one, you’ve got no chance.