Josh Allen is the best quarterback on the planet.
The Buffalo Bills built him a new stadium, gifted him a new No. 1 wide receiver, and let him choose the new head coach that he believes will unlock his full potential.
We got a glimpse of Buffalo’s new-look offence Week 1.
Allen averaged a league-high 11.5 air yards per attempt in a 36-31 win over the Houston Texans.
38.5 per cent of Allen’s pass attempts travelled 15 or more yards downfield.
26.9 per cent of Allen’s pass attempts travelled 20 or more yards downfield.
Allen went 11-of-14 for 286 yards and two touchdowns on pass attempts that travelled 10+ yards downfield.
Buffalo’s dropback rate on first down jumped from a league-low 39.2 per cent in 2025 to 48.1 per cent in the win over the Texans.
Allen went 8-of-12 for 186 yards on first down throws and scored on a 21-yard scramble.
The Bills were far more aggressive on early downs and far more aggressive taking shots down field in their first game with Joe Brady as head coach.
Buffalo’s identity shift also featured the offence lining up in 13 personnel – three tight ends, one running back – on a league-high 40.4 per cent of offensive snaps in Week 1.
For perspective, the Los Angeles Rams led the NFL in 2025 when they ran 13 personnel on 31 per cent of their offensive plays.
Per the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, Allen went 4-of-5 for 86 yards and was sacked once in 13 personnel.
Meanwhile, James Cook carried the ball 10 times for 51 yards for an average of 5.1 yards per carry against a tough Texans defence out of the heavier formation.
He had an additional three carries for 57 yards in the win.
The personnel shift also unlocked an underrated option in the passing game in tight end Dalton Kincaid, who led Buffalo with five receptions for 130 yards on six targets.
Kincaid played a career-high 72.4 per cent of the snaps.
For perspective, his previous career-high was 55 per cent.
After leading all NFL tight ends in yards per route run in 2025 (2.83), Kincaid posted the best mark at his position again in Week 1 with a whopping 5.91 YPRR.
Kincaid is healthier than ever, stronger than ever, and appears to be primed for more playing time than ever.
All signs point to another monster performance by Kincaid and the Bills new-look offence in Week 2.
I’m counting on it with three FanDuel Best Bets to consider in this Morning Coffee column for Thursday September 17th, 2026.
Josh Allen, Bills Set To Show Off New Look Offence In Home Opener Versus Lions
The offensive play caller in Buffalo hasn’t changed.
It’s the offensive plays being called that have.
Allen went 20-of-29 for 334 passing yards and two touchdowns versus Houston in Week 1.
He also ran for 23 yards and two scores in the win.
Allen’s odds to win NFL regular season MVP were cut from +500 to +480 as the obvious favourite at FanDuel.
If the Bills want to continue to let it rip with the best QB on the planet, it could be hard to make a case for anybody else to win MVP by the end of the season.
Next up, Buffalo is set to open the New Highmark Stadium against the Detroit Lions in front of a sold-out crowd on Thursday Night Football.
Sure, it’s a short week, but Allen is 8-1 straight up on Thursday Night Football and the Bills are 4-0 in their previous four home openers, averaging a ridiculous 38.5 points per game in those contests.
Is it fair to say Allen and company will be fired up?
Buffalo opened -3.5 at FanDuel.
That number has since moved to Bills -5.5.
Meanwhile, the total has climbed from 52.5 to 54.5, which would be the highest total in a game where both teams are playing on short rest since 2022.
Per Evan Abrams, there’s been nine different games in which both teams have played on short rest since 2012.
Those nine games have gone 9-0 to the under.
Regardless of the final score, I’m banking on the biggest stars for both teams stepping up with my FanDuel Best Bets for Thursday Night Football.
First up, I’ll lock in a builder Same Game Parlay with the Bills to win, Kincaid 25+ receiving, and DJ Moore 25+ receiving at -120 odds.
In addition to the increased snap share and routes run, Kincaid was the target on three of Buffalo’s five pass plays for 25 or more yards in Week 1, including a 40-yard catch.
Kincaid has a reception of 23 or more yards in every game that he has played from start to finish since the start of the 2025 season.
He’s -170 to record a 20+ yard reception versus Detroit.
In case you missed it, the Lions defence got rocked in a narrow 31-30 win over the New Orleans Saints in OT.
Tyler Shough threw for 410 yards and three touchdowns.
Following a slow start, his tight ends Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant combined for seven receptions, 87 yards, and two touchdowns versus Detroit.
The Lions are already down safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch, while cornerback D.J. Reed is questionable with a foot injury.
Detroit allowed an average of 5.2 receptions for 54.8 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends in 2025.
After getting torched by the Saints in Week 1, I’m willing to bet on Kincaid to deliver a solid encore performance.
Meanwhile, D.J. Moore led Buffalo with eight targets in Week 1 and finished with five catches for 100 yards and a touchdown versus Houston.
His average depth of target was 21.29 yards.
He might only need one or two catches to get to 25 receiving yards against Detroit.
I’ll also tail my guy Davis Sanchez with Dawson Knox over 12.5 receiving yards.
Knox went over his number in 16 of 19 games in 2025.
While he had only one catch for seven yards against the Texans in Week 1, he was on the field for 61.5 per cent of Buffalo’s offensive snaps, and this is a much more favourable matchup against the Lions.
Next up, I’ll plug in Allen over 27.5 rushing yards.
The Lions are banged up on both sides of the football.
Now they must travel on a short week to face Buffalo in the opener at New Highmark Stadium.
Allen ran the ball 11 times for 68 yards and two touchdowns the last time these teams met in 2024.
He doesn’t need to duplicate those numbers to win tonight, but I do think he will be fired up to make some plays with his legs in the home opener.
I also think he will want to score a touchdown.
Allen has at least one rushing touchdown in all three career games against Detroit.
The Lions play a heavy man defence, which sometimes leaves them vulnerable to QB rushing yards, which is why they’ve ranked in the bottom eight in QB rushing attempts against in two of the last three seasons.
Lock in Allen over 27.5 rushing yards as a best bet.
Finally, I’ll add Jahmyr Gibbs 30+ receiving yards.
Gibbs averaged 36.2 receiving yards per game in 2025.
The fantasy football RB1 caught all five of his targets for 30 yards in the win over New Orleans.
While it’s Buffalo’s run defence that has been a weak spot in recent years, Detroit’s offensive line is banged up on a short week, and Jared Goff and company could be playing from behind in the second half as a 4.5-poiint underdog.
The last time these teams met in 2024, Gibbs had eight carries for 31 yards while going off in the passing game with five receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown.
With David Montgomery in Houston, Gibbs accounted for 91.9 per cent of Detroit’s backfield touches in Week 1.
If the Lions are going to have any shot tonight in Buffalo, they will need their superstar running back to shoulder a heavy workload once again.
Hopefully, we can kick off Week 2 with a perfect night.
Have a great day, everyone!
