Betting

Morning Coffee: Avalanche can punch ticket to Western Conference Finals tonight

By
Domenic Padula

Published: 

Colorado Avalanche center Martin Necas (88) in the second period of Game 2 of an NHL hockey Stanley Cup second-round playoff series Tuesday, May 5, 2026, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski) (David Zalubowski/AP)

The Montreal Canadiens rebuild is ahead of schedule.

A team that could be found as high as 100-to-1 to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel last summer is two wins away from the Eastern Conference Finals.

Regardless of what happens next, this young Canadiens roster banked more playoff experience in three weeks than some NHL rosters get in three seasons.

That doesn’t take the sting away when it comes to the thought of what could have been on Tuesday night.

The Canadiens looked like the faster, more physical, and more opportunistic team once again as they jumped out to a 2-1 lead over the Buffalo Sabres in the first 20 minutes of Game 4 at the Bell Centre.

However, one bad bounce opened the door for Buffalo.

The Sabres rallied for a 3-2 win to tie the series at 2-2.

A young Montreal team still learning how to finish at the highest level learned another difficult lesson in terms of what it takes to win in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Now down to a best-of-three, FanDuel has made the series a pick’em with the Canadiens and Sabres both priced at -110 to advance.

While Montreal and Buffalo guaranteed to play at least two more games, the undefeated Carolina Hurricanes get some extra time to rest and recover as they prepare for the Eastern Conference Finals.

Meanwhile, the Vegas Golden Knights inched closer to the Western Conference Finals with an overtime win over another young team in the Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday.

Vegas is -113 to win Game 6 and -465 to advance.

Anaheim is -106 to force a Game 7 and +350 to advance.

First up, the Colorado Avalanche will attempt to punch their ticket to the Western Conference Finals with a win over the Minnesota Wild in Game 5 on home ice.

Let’s set the stage for tonight’s game and lock in a FanDuel Best Bet in this Morning Coffee column for Wednesday May 13th, 2026.

Avalanche Can Punch Ticket To Western Conference Finals Tonight

It’s been more than two decades since the last time that Colorado blew a 3-1 series lead in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The fact that it happened against Minnesota back in 2003 is a strange coincidence that Wild fans continue to point to as reason for optimism that it can happen again.

What are the odds of an Avalanche collapse?

Colorado is -2800 to advance at FanDuel.

That number translates to a 96.6 per cent implied probability that the Avalanche win the series.

Minnesota is +1160 to win the next three in a row.

First up, the Wild will need to keep their hopes alive with an upset win as a +172 underdog for Game 5 tonight.

Colorado is a massive -210 moneyline favourite.

The Presidents’ Trophy winners have been the class of the NHL all season and we saw their talent and depth shine again in Game 4 on the road.

Tied 2-2 in the third period, Parker Kelly emerged as the most unlikely of heroes with his first career NHL go-ahead goal in the third period or later.

MacKenzie Blackwood made 19 saves in his first start of the postseason and the Avalanche added to empty-net goals to push the Wild to the brink of elimination.

Nathan MacKinnon, who didn’t score in any of the first three games in these Stanley Cup Playoffs, has six goals in his last five games.

Cale Makar, Nicolas Roy, Artturi Lehkonen, and Gabriel Landeskog all have three goals.

Martin Necas, Nazem Kadri, and Devon Toews all have at least six points through eight postseason games.

While the Wild have shown a ton of fight in this series, their lack of 5-on-5 production is a major red flag.

The Avalanche can attack in waves, and Minnesota’s inability to match their scoring punch at even-strength has been the difference in this series.

Colorado has the depth, experience, and the underlying metrics to close it out on home ice tonight.

As for a FanDuel Best Bet for Game 5, I’m going right back to the builder shots on goal Same Game Parlay that I’ve played throughout the first four games of the series.

A builder FanDuel SGP with Kadri 2+ shots on goal and Ryan Hartman 2+ shots on goal can be found at -119.

I’ll also throw some coffee money on both of those skaters to register 3+ shots on goal at +292.

Kadri has recorded three or more shots on goal in all four games in this series, averaging 5.0 per game.

Hartman has also cleared three or more in all four games, averaging 4.5 per game in this series.

We can’t find Martin Necas 1+ assists at plus money anymore, but I’m willing to bet it at -102 at FanDuel.

Necas leads Colorado with eight assists this postseason, including five primary assists.

He’s registered six assists in four games in this series.

If you want to find my full card for tonight’s game, make sure you give me a follow @Domenic_Padula on X.

Hopefully, we can deliver again in Game 5 between the Avalanche and Wild tonight.

Have a great day, everyone!