Domenic Padula (@Domenic_Padula)
In Tuesday’s column, I outlined the three most popular bets to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel.
The Los Angeles Rams are the most popular pick at +550 as the lone team at shorter than 10-to-1 odds to win it.
The Buffalo Bills are the second-most popular bet to win the Super Bowl at the shortest odds among AFC teams.
Then there is the team that has emerged as the third most popular bet to win it all at FanDuel despite being nowhere near the top of the board.
15 teams have shorter odds than the Chicago Bears to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel.
Only two of them have been more popular bets.
Meanwhile, the Bears have also emerged as the most popular bet to win the NFC Championship at FanDuel.
Seven teams have shorter odds than Chicago at +1400.
Apparently, the betting public is willing to roll the dice on a longshot bet to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
A year ago, the Bears surprised as NFC North champions in their first year under head coach Ben Johnson after entering the regular season as the third choice to win the division behind the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers.
It marked the first time Chicago win the NFC North title since 2018.
The Bears haven’t won consecutive division titles since they went back-to-back in 2005 and 2006 – a feat the franchise has accomplished twice dating back to 1970.
Interestingly, Chicago reached the Super Bowl both times.
Are the Bears a sharp under-the-radar play that is worth investing in heading into Year 2 under Johnson?
Or is the public falling into a trap believing Chicago is bound to take the next step in 2026?
Let’s dive into the key question marks still surrounding the Bears in this Morning Coffee column for Wednesday August 5th, 2026.
Bears Emerge As Most Popular Bet To Win NFC Championship At FanDuel
The Bears have won their division six times since 2000.
In those previous six instances, Chicago went on to make the playoffs the following year only one time.
A year ago, 11 wins was enough to win the NFC North and secure home-field advantage for a thrilling Wild Card playoff win over the division rival Green Bay Packers.
The Bears trailed the Packers 21-3 at the half in that win.
However, Chicago outscored Green Bay 28-6 the rest of the way to secure yet another comeback victory, which was a popular theme for them last season.
The Bears led the NFL with six fourth-quarter comeback wins last season.
None of them was bigger than the postseason win over the Packers, which they also rallied from down 10 points in the fourth quarter to beat in a crucial Week 16 win.
That comeback victory in Week 16 was the difference between Chicago going 1-5 and 2-4 in division games.
The Bears became just the fourth team since the 1970 merger to win a division title despite finishing with a losing record in division games.
A losing record versus NFC North opponents and a reliance on so many fourth-quarter comebacks are two causes for caution that FanDuel bettors have ignored.
The Packers, Detroit Lions, and Minnesota Vikings are all expected to be competitive again in 2026.
Chicago must overcome the weight of expectations going from hunter to the hunted at the top of the division.
2024 first-overall pick Caleb Williams set a franchise record with 3942 passing yards in his second season.
Williams will attempt to become the first QB in Bears franchise history to throw for 4000 passing yards.
Regardless of whether he hits that mark, he’ll need to improve his accuracy and consistency for Chicago to go any further than it did last season.
Believe it or not, Williams’ completion percentage declined from his rookie NFL season.
Williams ranked 32nd out of 33 qualifying QBs in completion percentage, ahead of only J.J. McCarthy, who will back up Kyler Murray in Minnesota this season.
The Bears will also bank on improved play from a defence that led the league in interceptions and takeaways but ranked near the bottom of the NFL in yards and points per game allowed.
The NFC North gets a favourable schedule with games against NFC South and AFC East division opponents, but Chicago will also play games against the Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles as part of its first-place schedule.
Here’s the real question: Can the Bears deliver better results with a more difficult outlook in 2026?
Or is simply matching last season’s gains already a hard enough lift for Williams and company?
FanDuel bettors have been willing to bank on the former by making Chicago the most popular pick to win the NFC Championship and third-most popular bet to win the Super Bowl this offseason.
I’m not buying the Bears as a Super Bowl contender.
Hopefully, overlooking Chicago doesn’t come back to bite me this season.
Have a great day, everyone!
