Morning Coffee: Can Canada beat the odds to upset USA at World Baseball Classic?

If I’ve learned anything since launching TSN’s betting department six years ago, it’s that burning out doesn’t make you tougher – it leaves you empty.

You can’t win if you’re not in the game.

Figuring out how to protect your energy, pace yourself, and stay in the game without burning out is essential.

I remember hearing a clip from Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay about dealing with burnout not that long ago.

I’d heard similar messages before but genuinely never understood its importance.

“I used to think it was cool to get away with not sleeping. That’s the dumbest (expletive) I’ve ever heard. When your job is to deal with people, you need to establish healthy habits to sustain (yourself) when there’s a lot of external stressors.”

It’s easy to forget how important it is to prioritize sleep, recovery, and sustainable healthy habits.

In Wednesday morning’s column, I wrote about how I regretted crashing early on a night when Bam Adebayo scored 83, Italy stunned the USA at the World Baseball Classic, and the Baltimore Ravens shocked the entire football world by backing out of a deal for Maxx Crosby.

At the time, I didn’t consider how much that extra rest would pay off this week.

All it took was Cutter Gauthier, Matt Boldy, and Jason Robertson getting back on track, a little dad energy from David Pastrnak, and the golden goal scorer Jack Hughes to find the back of the net on the same night to cash a +6866 anytime goal parlay.

Matias Maccelli spoiled Gauthier first goal +1000.

Still, the opportunity to hit the reset button, get to the gym, and get some extra rest has paid off this week.

Turning the page this morning, all eyes will be on Team Canada as they get set for a David versus Goliath-style showdown with Team USA at the World Baseball Classic.

Canadians have waited a long time to see their baseball team compete in the knockout stage of the tournament.

Unfortunately, it will take a massive upset for Canada to advance any further.

Let’s set the stage for tonight’s WBC showdown in this Morning Coffee for Friday March 13th, 2026.

Can Canada Beat The Odds To Upset USA At World Baseball Classic?

Canadians have spent the past 18 days manifesting a winner-take-all rematch against the United States.

Unfortunately, we must have all forgotten to clarify that we want the rematch on the ice and not the diamond.

For the second time in 19 days, Canada and the USA will meet in a winner-take-all on the international stage.

This time around, the Americans will be a major favourite at -850 to advance at the World Baseball Classic.

Canada is up to +570 to win its first World Baseball Classic quarterfinal game ever.

That number translates to a 14.9 per cent implied win probability for Canada.

Not good, but also not as bad as Italy’s chances before they upset the USA as a +720 underdog in pool play.

Nobody expected the Italians to win Pool B with a 4-0 record at 80-to-1 to win the World Baseball Classic.

Canada was 60-to-1 to win the World Baseball Classic at the start of the tournament.

While that number dipped as low as 33-to-1 after they advanced past pool play for the first time, a match-up against the Americans has their title odds right back at that initial 60-to-1 price at FanDuel this morning.

Only Korea has longer title odds than Canada at 80-to-1.

Meanwhile, the USA re-emerged as the title favourite following Italy’s win over Mexico to close out pool play.

Team USA is +120 to win the World Baseball Classic.

The Dominican Republic, led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., is the second choice to win the tournament at +250.

Shout out to our guy Luke Bellus for tagging the DR and Venezuela to advance to the quarterfinals as a best bet for the World Baseball Classic before the tournament.

Shohei Ohtani and Japan are +380 as the third choice.

Meanwhile, Ohtani is the favourite to win MVP at +500.

Aaron Judge is a close second choice at +650, with Juan Soto of the Dominican Republic a distant third choice at 14-to-1 odds this morning.

Vladdy Jr. is the sixth choice to win MVP at +1800.

For Canada, Josh Naylor, Owen Caissie, and Tyler O’Neil are all 175-to-1 long shots to win tournament MVP.

While it’s been less than 48 hours since Canada clinched a spot in the World Baseball Classic quarterfinals for the first time ever, Canadians won’t get much of a chance to appreciate the accomplishment before they face the USA.

To help put their odds to advance in perspective, FanDuel has a spread or “run line” market for tonight’s game with Canada +4.5 priced at +104.

That number means that FanDuel considers bettors more likely to bet the American to win by five runs or more than the Canadians to win or lose by four or fewer runs.

Canada has longer odds to advance than the USA, Dominican Republic, and Japan to win the tournament.

Unlike the Winter Olympics gold medal game, which was a pick’em, tonight’s World Baseball Classic quarterfinal isn’t expected to be particularly close.

Can Canada pull off its biggest upset in the history of the sport?

Considering the Italians found a way to upset the USA, it might be time for Canada manager Ernie Whitt to think about installing an espresso machine in the dugout.

It certainly wouldn’t hurt.

As somebody who has enjoyed his Morning Coffee a little too much at times over the last six years, I can attest to the importance of a little extra caffeine.

Just don’t burn out.

After cashing a +6866 anytime goal scorer parlay last night, Canada pulling off an upset in a single-game elimination game at +570 seems a lot more possible.

Stranger things have happened on Friday the 13th.

Have a great weekend, everyone!