Setting The Pick – Who to bet first overall?

With the debate between AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson so divided, why is the BYU product priced like such a sure thing at -350?

As it stands, that number implies Dybantsa is a 78 percent probability to go first overall – that was not the case over the course of the college season.

After their head-to-head matchup on January 31^st, FanDuel had Dybantsa at +285.

On April 7^th post-Final Four, he was -185.

Right before the draft lottery, he was -475.

I’m writing this article to proclaim that Peterson at +310 is better value than the market believes.

The odds are already trending back that way and it’s still early enough to ride the steam.

Washington officially owns the pick and that seems to have swayed bettors.

The NBA combine has also gotten underway in Chicago this week as measurements and athletic scores start to file in.

I had the honour of working March Madness as a studio host this season and spent lots of time alongside TSN’s analysts, most notably former Raptors head coach, Sam Mitchell.

This is topical because he was Peterson’s AAU coach down in Georgia.

On one hand, mentioning this transparently flags some bias in my thought process.

On the other, I have access to observations about the player in question who comes with more red flags than the betting favourite.

Peterson’s perceived red flags

Sifting through all the criticism that has come Peterson’s way, the root cause of his risk profile comes down to games missed.

He played in 24-of-35 possible games for Kansas.

Videos of Peterson subbing himself out of games had gone viral.

Kansas head coach, Bill Self, added more to the concerns citing his “disappointment” in Peterson’s inability to finish games.

Mainstream media utilized this opportunity to lambast him publicly and create storylines for college basketball.

As a result of these absences, the questions about him as a prospect spiraled into concerns about his drive, work ethic, and off-court intangibles.

None related to what he did on the court.

Citing my colleague coach Mitchell, he laughed at the speculations about him off court having coached him for two years and getting to know his family intimately.

Mitchell would regularly praise Peterson for being the hardest working kid he knew and consistently bragged about coaching him very tough and unapologetically, only because he was capable of taking it.

He comes from a very dedicated and loving family and Mitchell always cited how great of a kid he was above his on-court abilities.

As more information has been made available, we now have answers regarding his mysterious absences.

ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne published this article from last week explaining the medical challenges he dealt with in his one year of college.

I encourage you to read it for yourself, but in summary, high doses of creatine in his diet exceeded safe levels and caused him to consistently deal with unexplained cramping that wasn’t solved until blood tests were completed.

This one falls on his support team – they did him a major disservice not proceeding with proper due diligence.

This was an 18-year-old teenager, he can’t be faulted for these mistakes.

Knowing his former AAU coach, seeing these concerns leak into questions about his character seems to be heavily misguided.

I doubt professional front offices will fall victim to similar assumption-based conclusions.

College career comparison

Over the course of their NCAA careers, Peterson missed 11 games while Dybantsa didn’t miss a single one. Here’s how their stats wrapped at the conclusion of the season:

AJ Dybansta

34.8 min, 25.5 pts, 6.8 reb, 3.7 ast, 1.1 stl, 0.3 blk, 3.1 to

51.0 / 33.1 / 77.4 shooting splits

Darryn Peterson

29.0 min, 20.2 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.6 ast, 1.4 stl, 0.6 blk, 1.6 to

43.8 / 38.2 / 82.6 shooting splits

On aggregate, Dybantsa’s stat line reigns supreme.

He accumulated higher counting stats across the board, even adjusted on a per minute basis.

He shot over 50 percent from the field while Peterson had a subpar 43.8 clip.

What catches my eye though?

If Dybantsa is the more athletic raw talent four inches taller, with a better vertical and larger wingspan, how did Peterson end up with better defensive stats than the BYU product?

I also think a key landmark moment was their lone NCAA battle at the end of January.

In that win for Kansas, Peterson got the Jayhawks up 53-33 and scored all 18 of his points by the half.

Dybantsa only logged 7 points at that time.

Peterson subbed out at the 16:46 mark in the second half when the game was already in hand.

He thoroughly dominated that matchup when both players knew the national spotlight was on them.

Future outlook

Come next month, I think the choice for first overall comes down to ceiling versus floor.

Dybantsa has been the top prospect in his class since the beginning of high school.

He did enough statistically at BYU to showcase how he’ll translate to the NBA.

There are minimal red flags with him.

Peterson on the other hand has been answering one question after another.

He seems to carry more risk at this time.

But evaluating solely on his on-court production, draft experts continue to gush over his All-NBA level potential.

Former ESPN draft expert, Jonathan Givony, clearly believes Peterson is undeniably the better prospect.

The upside of his talent could be more transformational for a franchise in need.

What are the Washington Wizards looking for?

Do they like their existing core and envision a title run with one solid piece?

Or do they still think their timeline is further out and need a generational player to completely alter their trajectory?

At the time of writing, nobody can say with certainty what their plans are.

Who knows if the No. 1 overall pick even ends up playing in Washington by draft night.

Bottom line is, this is closer to 50/50. I think Peterson is undeservingly priced at 24.4 percent to go first overall and see it as a buy-low opportunity.