Canada was always destined to be an underdog in the Round of 16 at FanDuel.
Now that we know their opponent, the odds that their fairytale run continues in the quarterfinals are locked in.
Canada is +245 to advance versus Morocco at FanDuel.
That number represents a 29 per cent implied chance.
Morocco, which could be found as high as +130 to upset the Netherlands in the Round of 32, has flipped the script and is now a -320 favourite to reach the quarterfinals.
Of course, Canada could draw inspiration from Morocco’s epic comeback versus the Netherlands on Monday.
Morocco trailed 1-0 late before Issa Diop responded with the equalizer in the 90’ +1’ and went on to beat the Netherlands 3-2 in penalties.
Meanwhile, Morocco’s upset wasn’t even the biggest of the day as Paraguay stunned Germany in penalties as a whopping +480 underdog to advance at FanDuel.
Germany was the seventh choice to lift the trophy at +1400 odds pre-tournament.
Looking back at the top 18 choices to lift the trophy at FanDuel pre-tournament, Germany and Netherlands joined Uruguay as the only three to be eliminated so far.
Which country benefited most from a pair of surprise early exits by Germany and the Netherlands?
Let’s dive into the numbers in this Morning Coffee column for Tuesday June 30th, 2026.
Which Contender Benefits Most From Early Exits By Germany, Netherlands?
Back in December, I locked in France as my FanDuel Best Bet to lift the trophy at +700.
That number was cut to +500 by late April.
France to lift the trophy could be found anywhere between +450 and +480 at FanDuel in the final days before the tournament kicked off.
At the time, I added France to be the top UEFA team at +340 as the second choice behind the favourite Spain.
At least on paper, France seemed destined to face the easiest path with the Germany and Netherlands as its toughest competition prior to the semi-finals.
That projected path got much easier with both European nations exiting in the Round of 32 via penalties.
With Germany and the Netherlands out, the toughest possible match-up France could face prior to the quarterfinals is Morocco in the quarterfinals.
For perspective, Morocco was the 13th choice to lift the trophy at FanDuel at +5500 odds pre-tournament.
France is -950 to advance versus Sweden this afternoon.
That number represents a 90.5 per cent implied chance.
The winner of today’s clash between France and Sweden will play Paraguay in the Round of 16.
For perspective, Paraguay was 300-to-1 to lift the trophy at FanDuel pre-tournament.
Germany was 14-to-1.
France, Argentina, Spain, and England are the top four choices to lift the trophy at FanDuel this morning.
At this point, France’s most likely path to the semi-finals features Sweden, Paraguay, and Morocco.
Argentina’s most likely path to the semi’s features Cabo Verde, Egypt, and Colombia.
Meanwhile, Spain’s most likely path to the semi’s features Austria, Portugal, and Belgium.
England’s most likely path to the semi’s features Congo DR, Mexico, and Brazil.
While Spain and England are projected to face tough challenges in the Round of 16 and quarterfinals, the 2022 champion Argentina and finalist France should be heavy favourites to advance in every round until the semis.
Following Germany’s exit, France to reach the semi-finals was cut from +100 to -175.
France to reach the final shifted from +200 to +135.
Of course, Monday’s results showed us that anything can happen in a knockout match on soccer’s biggest stage.
However, at least on paper, no team benefited more from early exits by Germany and the Netherlands than France.
The 2022 finalists have advanced in a whopping 83 per cent of their tournament knockout stage matches since 1998, with all three of their eliminations in penalties.
The stage is set for France to make another deep run as FanDuel’s new favourite to lift the trophy at +240.
As somebody who bet on France to win it all months ago, I’m hoping they can avoid a fate like their European counterparts that went out in the Round of 32.
Have a great day, everyone!
