I’ve always trusted numbers more than narratives.
Every so often sports remind us that even when the number is right it might not be enough to save a good narrative.
Western Michigan was one second – at most – from pulling off the biggest upset in school history as a 28.5-point underdog at No. 16 Michigan on Saturday night.
ESPN gave the Broncos a 99 per cent win probability with 26 seconds left on the clock and all of us watching live pictured that number being 100 when we first saw the clock hit :00.
Those are just the numbers.
The narrative is that Western Michigan ultimately fell one second short of the upset and was one batted ball away from clinching again on the unforgettable Hail Mary TD pass that allowed the Wolverines to escape with the win.
Michigan still got hit hard with an honesty tax as the Wolverines odds to make the College Football Playoff climbed from +340 to +750 at FanDuel.
Oregon’s odds to get to the dance also took a small hit from -320 to -270 after a narrow win over Boise State.
Meanwhile, Miami, LSU, and Ole Miss were among the biggest winners Week 1 of the NCAA football season, with Hurricanes QB Darrian Mensah emerging as the new Heisman Trophy favourite at +600 while his teammate wide receiver Malachi Toney isn’t far behind at +1300.
Tonight, we get No. 19 SMU laying -2.5 at Florida State.
The real show is next Saturday when No. 1 Ohio State will visit No. 5 Texas in a clash between two of the top four choices to win the College Football Playoff National Championship at FanDuel.
We’re also less than 24 hours away from FanDuel’s NFL Futures Day on Tuesday, as the countdown continues to Wednesday’s NFL Kick-Off game in Seattle.
Make sure you check out the FanDuel app for all the latest details for what you can expect for Tuesday.
First up, Week 14 in the CFL will come to an end with a Labour Day Weekend double-header on TSN.
The Toronto Argonauts and Hamilton Tiger-Cats are in must-win territory as the latest edition of the Battle of the QEW has major playoff implications for both teams.
Later this evening, the Battle of Alberta gets underway with the first of a home-and-home between the Calgary Stampeders and the Edmonton Elks.
Let’s set the stage for today’s CFL Labour Day Weekend double-header in this Morning Coffee column for Monday September 7th, 2026.
CFL Labour Day Double-Header Will Have Major Playoff Implications
Perhaps it’s only fitting that the Battle of Alberta begins on Labour Day Weekend.
The Saskatchewan Roughriders rallied for a 32-26 win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Sunday night to improve to 8-4.
With the Riders victory, the pressure now shifts back to the surprising Elks, which at 8-3 are a half-game up on Saskatchewan for first place in the West Division.
Meanwhile, the Bombers and BC Lions both lost this weekend to fall to 6-6.
With a win over Edmonton tonight, Calgary could climb into a three-way tie for third place in the West Division.
A loss would drop the Stampeders a full game back of BC and Winnipeg in the West Division playoff race.
Fortunately for Calgary, quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. and running back Dedrick Mills will both be in the lineup tonight against the Elks.
https://x.com/calstampeders/status/2096750297930662271
Edmonton leads the CFL with 17 interceptions and has held its opponents to 290.1 passing yards per game.
Stampeders head coach Dave Dickenson acknowledged the important role turnovers will play for both teams.
Now it’s on Adams and the Calgary offence to execute.
Meanwhile, Cody Fajardo has forced his way into the MOP conversation by throwing for 3368 yards and 18 touchdowns this season.
Rested and ready after a bye week, Fajardo has a chance to establish a new career-high with his 19th touchdown pass of the season tonight in Calgary.
In case you missed it, I gave out the Elks +1.5 as a FanDuel Best Bet for Week 14 early last week, before the number flipped to Edmonton -1.5.
The fact that my guy’s Davis Sanchez and Drew F. Morrison also like the Elks makes me feel that much better about the selection.
With Edmonton off a bye and aiming to hold off Saskatchewan atop the West Division standings, and Calgary fighting for a playoff spot, the Battle of Alberta has major implications for both sides.
Meanwhile, the final chapter in the 2026 Battle of the QEW will decide the winner of the season series as the Argonauts visit the Tiger-Cats this afternoon.
Hamilton won the first meeting 24-23 in Week 7.
Toronto responded with a 39-20 win in Week 12.
Neither team will catch the Montreal Alouettes alone in first place in the East Division standings at 10-2.
Neither team is worried about the 0-11 Ottawa Redblacks.
The focus for both the Argonauts and Tiger-Cats is on second place in the West Division and a playoff spot.
Hamilton still has a home-and-home versus Ottawa.
However, the TiCats also play two more games versus Edmonton, as well as a date with Montreal after a bye in Week 16.
Meanwhile, Toronto also gets a home-and-home versus Ottawa, as well as games against Edmonton, Winnipeg, BC, and Montreal.
The Argonauts can climb two wins clear of Hamilton with a game in hand with a victory this afternoon.
With a loss this afternoon, the gap behind Toronto could be too big for the TiCats to make up the rest of the way.
Drew F. Morrison circled the Argos -4.5 as his FanDuel Best Bet for this afternoon’s game.
Let’s see if Toronto can inch closer to a playoff spot with a win and cover in Hamilton.
The narrative is set, and the best bets are locked in.
Now let’s see where the numbers land as the summer comes to an end with a CFL Labour Day double-header.
Have a great day, everyone!
