Morning Coffee: Separating NFC contenders from pretenders with NFL Playoff bracket set

Welcome to the most unpredictable NFL playoffs in years.

The National Football League gave us 272 regular-season games to sort out which teams are legitimate contenders and which teams should be considered pretenders.

The numbers tell us a story, but on the heels of a season filled with surprises, the turnover and small sample sizes make it that much more difficult to trust the data.

We’ll begin with four home underdogs in the playoffs.

For the first time in a long time, there isn’t one single obvious Super Bowl favourite.

The Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, and the Washington Commanders were all among the most popular preseason picks to win their respective conference championships at FanDuel.

All four teams will watch from home as the road to Super Bowl 59 in San Francisco unfolds the next three weeks.

The Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams remain the top two choices to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel as the only teams with shorter than 6-to-1 odds to win it all.

Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Carolina Panthers needed Week 18 miracles just to sneak into the playoffs as massive longshots to win it all.

With the 14-team playoff field bracket set, would you trust anybody to predict the exact Super Bowl result?

Let’s start by separating the NFC’s true Super Bowl contenders from the pretenders in this Morning Coffee column for Monday, January 5^th, 2026.

Separating NFC Contenders from Pretenders with NFL Playoff Bracket Set

There’s one obvious starting point for anybody who is looking to separate the contenders from pretenders in the field for the 2025 NFL playoffs.

The Carolina Panthers are the first team in NFL history to reach the playoffs with a losing record twice.

The 8-9 Panthers secured their first NFC South title since 2015 via a three-way division tiebreaker with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons.

Carolina didn’t win a single game as a favourite this year.

The Panthers’ minus-69 point differential is 95 points worse than the second-worst mark among playoff teams.

FanDuel’s updated numbers for Carolina reflect it.

The Panthers are 175-to-1 to win the Super Bowl.

Carolina to win the NFC Championship is 75-to-1.

For perspective, no other team is longer than 55-to-1 to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel.

The Panthers are getting 10.5 points against the Rams as the biggest underdog for NFL Wild Card weekend.

Carolina to win outright is currently +460 at FanDuel.

Los Angeles to win the Super Bowl is currently +450.

The Panthers are the first team we can scratch off the list of Super Bowl contenders, although there are a couple of interesting notes on Saturday’s Wild Card showdown.

First up, Carolina upset Los Angeles 31-28 in Week 13.

Bryce Young threw for 206 yards and three touchdowns in that victory, while MVP contender Matthew Stafford was sacked twice and picked off twice.

Then there’s the fact that only three teams in NFL history have reached the playoffs with a worse point differential than the Panthers.

All three of those teams won in the Wild Card round.

The Panthers aren’t a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

However, in a season full of surprises, it would fit the narrative if Carolina somehow found a way to shock the world one more time with an upset win over LA.

As for the rest of the NFC, I’m willing to pencil in the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers as pretenders based largely on their inability to slow down opponents.

The Bears have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2025 NFL season.

Chicago leads the league with 33 takeaways and a plus-22 takeaway differential.

However, the Bears defence also ranks 30^th in EPA per play on plays in which they haven’t forced a turnover.

In their final three games, Chicago gave up 192 rushing yards in a win over the Green Bay Packers, 200 rushing yards in a loss to the San Francisco 49ers, and 122 rushing yards (433 total yards) in a loss to the Lions.

The Bears took a massive step forward as a franchise, but their potential path to the Super Bowl will include some battle-tested opponents beginning against Green Bay.

The Packers are currently -1.5 at FanDuel.

I’ll pass on Chicago to win the Super Bowl at +1900.

I’ll also pass on the 49ers to win the Super Bowl at +2200.

It seems like just a moment ago, San Francisco was the hottest ticket in town with a chance at the No. 1 overall seed and home field advantage through the Super Bowl.

However, the 49ers were completely humbled by the Seahawks in Week 18, and like the Bears they’ll need to overcome a difficult path through the NFC beginning against the reigning Super Bowl champions this weekend.

The Philadelphia Eagles are currently -3.5 at FanDuel.

A defence that struggled to generate pressure all season and finished with the fewest sacks among playoff teams was always the biggest concern for the 49ers.

However, after watching the offence struggle mightily against Seattle while dropping from the potential No. 1 seed to the No. 6 seed, I must pass on San Francisco.

If we eliminate the Bears, 49ers, and Panthers from our list of legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the NFC, that leaves us with the Seahawks, Eagles, Rams and Packers.

A case can be made for all four of those teams to win it.

As I said to my good friend Davis Sanchez on Saturday, it’s remarkable to think about how much has gone wrong for Green Bay this season.

From the season-ending injuries to Tucker Kraft and Micah Parsons, to veteran Josh Jacobs dealing with a nagging injury all year, to Jordan Love missing time with a concussion, things could have played out a lot different for the Packers if they were fully healthy.

The fact that they are missing so many key pieces and would most likely have to beat Chicago, Seattle, and one of Philadelphia or Los Angeles on the road screams pass, even if I still believe they have what it takes to do it.

If I cross Green Bay off my list, I’m left with the Seahawks, Eagles, and Rams as my potential NFC champion.

Los Angeles was one of the most impressive teams in the NFL through Week 12 with a 9-2 record.

However, the Rams have since gone 3-3, with losses to Carolina, Seattle, and Atlanta.

The LA defence gave up 27 points or more in four of those six games, getting completely carved up on the ground and through the air by the Panthers, Seahawks, and the Falcons.

The late-season struggles, their inability to get stops, and the fact that they need three road wins to reach the Super Bowl will force me to pass on the Rams.

That leaves me with two potential NFC champions.

Seattle versus Philadelphia.

The Seahawks enter the playoffs as the NFC’s hottest team on the heels of seven straight wins to finish 14-3.

As bad as Sam Darnold has looked at times, Seattle found a way to win games against LA and San Francisco down the stretch thanks to competent play and a loaded roster.

Thanks to clinching the No. 1 overall seed and a first-round playoff bye, the Seahawks are one win away from a trip to the NFC Championship Game.

Meanwhile, it’s much harder to predict what to expect from a Philly side that has struggled with consistency all season but remains the defending Super Bowl champion.

The Eagles are the only division favourite that lived up to the hype, and the fact that they were such an obvious choice to come out on top in such a bad division has us wondering whether they can flip the switch in January.

Philadelphia’s offence is loaded with playmakers, and we know what Jalen Hurts is capable of on the biggest stage.

Still, the Eagles offence led the NFL in percentage of percentage of drives that went three and out this season.

How will their offensive line and defence hold up?

Home field advantage should help against the 49ers and the winner of Rams versus Panthers.

Philly’s Super Bowl path could require wins over all three NFC West with home dates against San Francisco and LA potentially setting up an NFC Championship in Seattle.

A Chicago win over Green Bay would mean the Eagles need wins over the 49ers and Bears to get back to the NFC Championship game.

As inconsistent as they have been all season, I would still lean Philadelphia in either potential path to Seattle.

If I play the Eagles to win the NFC Championship at +490 and the Seahawks to win it at +185, the scenario I’ve outlined above would guarantee me a profit.

Seattle was my sleeper NFC team at the start of the year.

Still, I would have never imagined at the time that I would be backing a Darnold-led team to win the NFC.

However, the Seahawks’ ability to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football has been a major advantage for them all season and that should continue in the postseason.

Seattle is already one home win away from the NFC Championship with two weeks to rest and prepare for their Divisional Round opponent.

I’ll take the Seahawks +185 to win the NFC championship and the Eagles +490 to win the NFC championship.

Hopefully, I’m right about the top NFC contenders and will have a profit locked in by the time the NFC title game kicks off in two weeks.

Which team do you think is the best bet to win the NFC?

Hit me up @Domenic_Padula on X and let me know.

In Tuesday’s column, we’ll attempt to separate the AFC’s contenders from the pretenders with a best bet to win the AFC Championship at FanDuel.

Have a great day, everyone!