The road to the 113th Grey Cup in Calgary was always expected to run through the West Division.
Very few CFL fans expected that path could feature a potential detour through Edmonton in late October.
The CFL Western Semi-Final is on Saturday October 31st.
The biggest question to be answered between now and then is whether a hot start by the Edmonton Elks will turn out to be a trick or treat.
The Elks have been the biggest surprise through the first seven weeks of the 2026 CFL season, and it isn’t particularly close.
Edmonton entered the year as the biggest longshot to win the Grey Cup at +1900 at FanDuel.
With a third of the season in the books, the Elks are tied for the league’s best record at 5-1.
Edmonton to win the Grey Cup has been cut from +1900 to +600 at FanDuel.
Next up for the Elks is three straight games against the only teams with shorter odds to win it all at FanDuel.
Edmonton will travel across the country to face the Grey Cup favourite in the Montreal Alouettes in Week 10.
First up, the Elks will play a home-and-home against the defending Grey Cup champion Saskatchewan Roughriders with pole position in the West Division on the line.
The next three weeks will be a true measuring stick.
How will Edmonton perform against the CFL’s best?
Let’s set the stage for Thursday Night Football in this Morning Coffee column for July 23rd, 2026.
Surprising Elks Begin Toughest Stretch As Underdogs In Saskatchewan
In Wednesday’s column, I pointed out that 19 of the 20 most staked FanDuel futures in Alberta were NFL wagers.
That got me thinking about what would have happened if Alberta’s competitive online sports betting market had launched in May instead of July.
How many bettors in Edmonton would have been willing to take a flyer on the Elks to win the Grey Cup at +1900?
What about Edmonton to win the West at +1000?
Seven weeks into the CFL regular season, the Elks are three wins away from cashing the over on their regular season win total.
Now the question isn’t whether they will go over or under 7.5 regular season wins, but how soon the over cashes.
Edmonton beat Montreal 32-29 in overtime in Week 3.
Then last week, the Elks avenged their lone loss of the season with a 19-17 victory over the BC Lions.
Now comes their toughest test of the season so far.
The Riders have heard all the noise about how the Elks could be the team to beat in the West and should be motivated to set the record straight tonight.
Saskatchewan is rested after a bye week and will have some of the best fans in the CFL cheering them on with home field advantage for Thursday Night Football on TSN.
The Riders are 2-0 versus West Division opponents with wins over the Lions and Calgary Stampeders.
Saskatchewan is still the favourite to win the West and the second choice to win the Grey Cup at +380.
Arguably the biggest reason why they aren’t the favourite is the fact that they must deal with Edmonton, Calgary, BC and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the West Division.
Meanwhile, Montreal is 3-0 against its East Division rivals Hamilton, Toronto, and Ottawa, which own a combined 5-13 record this season.
The Tiger-Cats were expected to be the Alouettes’ toughest competition in the East before Bo Levi Mitchell was sidelined long term with an ankle injury.
Tre Ford led Hamilton to a 24-23 win over Toronto in Week 7.
However, the Tiger-Cats are still a 10.5-point underdog for Sunday’s showdown with Montreal at FanDuel.
As for tonight’s game, the spread has already ticked up from Saskatchewan -3.5 to -4.5 at FanDuel.
Once again, all eyes will be on Edmonton’s star running back Justin Rankin as he attempts to bounce back from a sub-par performance in a Week 7 win over BC.
Rankin was held to nine rushing yards on seven carries.
Fortunately, for yours truly, he caught six passes for 46 yards and cashed the over on 45.5 receiving yards.
Despite the setback, Rankin is still on pace to crush his pre-season rushing yards over/under, which closed 875.5.
Rankin to lead the CFL in rushing yards was +2500.
Rankin (522) is currently two yards back of Stampeders running back Dedrick Mills (524) for the league lead.
Meanwhile, only Davis Alexander (2181) and Chad Kelly (2126) have more passing yards than Elks QB Cody Fajardo (1781) through six games.
Tonight, Fajardo will face a tough test versus a Riders defence that leads the CFL in passing yards allowed.
Fajardo has completed 70 straight passes without an interception.
Meanwhile, Trevor Harris threw four interceptions in three games before Saskatchewan’s bye week.
The Elks picked off BC’s Chase Brice four times in last week’s narrow win over the Lions and lead the CFL with 10 interceptions this season.
Turnovers will be critical once again as Edmonton attempts to upset Saskatchewan as a +188 underdog.
The Elks have surprised everyone with their hot start.
Now they get the opportunity to prove they are for real with a home-and-home against the defending champs, followed by a road trip to face the Grey Cup favourite.
Edmonton won’t sneak up on anybody anymore.
The surprise chapter is in the books.
The next chapter is about proving they are legitimate.
I can’t wait to see what the Elks do next in tonight’s West Division showdown on Thursday Night Football on TSN.
Have a great day, everyone!
