Morning Coffee: What are the odds Bills catch Patriots in AFC East?

The Patriot Way 2.0 has been installed in New England.

Suddenly, New England Patriots fans are starting to believe that success isn’t just a memory of the past.

The Patriots beat the New York Jets 27-14 on Thursday Night Football for their eighth straight win.

It’s the longest active win streak in the NFL and the franchise’s longest run since an 8-0 start in 2019.

The turnaround in New England is remarkable.

The Patriots are just the fourth team in the last 25 years to win nine of their first 11 games the season directly after they finished with four or fewer wins.

Back in the spring, FanDuel set New England’s regular season win total at over/under 8.5.

The Patriots clinched the over last night with plenty of familiar faces in attendance after Rob Gronkowski signed a one-day contract to officially retire in New England.

Patriots Nation is soaking in the nostalgia.

Drake Maye is the MVP favourite at +230 at FanDuel.

Mike Vrabel is the Coach of the Year favourite at +115.

The Patriots are 2.5 games up on the AFC East rival Buffalo Bills for the division’s best record at 9-2.

Few outside of Massachusetts would have thought that New England would look this good this early, leaving Buffalo in a tough spot with just eight games remaining to close the gap in the AFC East race.

What are the odds the Bills beat out the Patriots to win the AFC East title?

Let’s take a closer look at the updated AFC East division winner odds at FanDuel in this Morning Coffee for Friday November 14th, 2025.

What Are the Odds the Bills Catch the Patriots in the AFC East?

The Bills were an overwhelmingly popular pick to finish with the best record in the AFC at FanDuel.

Per the FanDuel traders, 48 per cent of the bets were on Buffalo to finish as the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

As of late August, 42 per cent of all the AFC East division winner bets were on the Bills.

Meanwhile, Buffalo was the second-most popular bet to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel.

The Bills entered the regular season as a co-favourite to win it all along with the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles and the Baltimore Ravens.

At the time, almost nobody would have expected it to be the Patriots standing alone atop the NFL standings with a 9-2 record entering NFL Sunday Week 11.

New England was a popular pick to finish second in the AFC East, behind Buffalo but ahead of the Jets and the Miami Dolphins.

While Josh Allen was the reigning NFL regular season MVP and a favourite to win that award again this year, Drake Maye was an 80-to-1 long shot at FanDuel.

In fact, Maye’s odds to win MVP ballooned as high as 150-to-1 at FanDuel following a Week 1 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Patriots have won nine of their last 10 games since.

Maye entered Week 11 as an MVP co-favourite along with Matthew Stafford, but FanDuel gave the 23-year-old a slight edge in that market following last night’s victory.

Allen is the fifth choice to win MVP at +750 at FanDuel.

He’ll need to be at his best if Buffalo is going to catch New England in the standings with eight games to go.

The Patriots are -300 to win the AFC East at FanDuel.

That number represents a 75 per cent implied probability.

The Bills are +230 to win the AFC East this morning.

For Buffalo, the biggest obstacle might be the schedule.

The Patriots upset the Bills as a 7.5-point underdog at FanDuel back in Week 5.

New England closed +350 to win that game outright.

While that win served as a catalyst for the Patriots current eight-game win streak, Buffalo has dropped three of five, including a pair of upset losses to the Atlanta Falcons and the Dolphins.

The Bills were a 3.5-point favourite at Atlanta in Week 6.

They were an 8.5-point favourite at Miami in Week 10.

While Allen and company have the potential to rally the rest of the way, their schedule doesn’t get any easier.

Buffalo will be a 5.5-point favourite against the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Sunday.

After that, the Bills will travel for back-to-back road games at the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Joe Burrow might be back by the time they host the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14.

The rematch against the Patriots is the following Sunday in New England.

Buffalo ends the season with a trip to face the Cleveland Browns in Week 16, a home game against the reigning Super Bowl champion Eagles in Week 17, then a Week 18 clash against the Jets.

The Bills will need to beat the Patriots in their own building to have a shot at the AFC East title.

Even then, they can’t afford to give up any more ground with the tougher remaining schedule of the two teams.

Buffalo has the 16th-hardest remaining strength of schedule based on opponents.

New England has the NFL’s easiest remaining schedule.

In fact, as it stands now, the Patriots play one more opponent with a winning record – the Bills in Week 15.

They also get one more game against the Jets and Dolphins, along with games against the Bengals, Ravens, and the New York Giants.

New England will be a betting favourite against Cincinnati, Miami, and both New York teams.

If the Bills lose their games against the Buccaneers and Eagles, it might not matter whether they beat the Patriots in Week 15.

Whatever happens next, The Patriot Way 2.0 has arrived in New England.

That means Buffalo has a lot less room for error than most FanDuel bettors expected when they made the Bills the most popular bet to clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

As for this Sunday’s NFL slate, I’m going to lock in the Buccaneers +5.5 as a FanDuel Best Bet.

The Bills have an elite quarterback in Allen and a top-tier running back in James Cook, but they haven’t been nearly consistent enough this season.

Buffalo is 2-5 against the spread in its previous seven – a run that includes outright losses to New England, Atlanta, and Miami as a favourite of more than a field goal.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers didn’t do the Bills any favours with a loss to the Patriots in Week 10.

However, Tampa Bay is 13-4 ATS in its previous 17 games following a loss, including six straight covers.

Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield is 15-4 ATS in his last 19 games as an underdog.

Mayfield is 12-3 ATS as an underdog coming off a loss over the last five seasons.

The Bills will undoubtedly be motivated to respond following an ugly loss to the Dolphins last week.

Buffalo might win the game, but Tampa Bay should be able to keep this one close.

Give me the Buccaneers +5.5 as a FanDuel Best Bet.

As the season progresses, the stakes will continue to climb a little higher for the teams in playoff contention.

Allen versus Mayfield should be a good one on Sunday.

Have a great day, everyone.