The NBA draft lottery is Sunday, with Washington, Indiana and Brooklyn having the best odds of winning the No. 1 pick.
The lottery began in 1985, when the New York Knicks received the top selection and altered the course of their franchise by taking Patrick Ewing. The format has had its share of changes since then, and there might be another coming soon, but for now the process should be pretty familiar. The top four selections are determined via a weighted draw. Then picks No. 5-14 are dispersed in reverse order of finish from this season.
Last year, The Associated Press reviewed each franchise’s draft lottery history. Here is an updated version — including only the teams involved in this year’s lottery.
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Washington Wizards/Bullets
Lottery Wins: 2001 (Kwame Brown) and 2010 (John Wall)
Other Top-3 Picks: No. 2 in 2024; No. 3 in 2012 and 2013
Dropped Out Of Top 3: 1993, 1995, 2004, 2009 and 2025
Chance Of Receiving No. 1 Pick This Year: 14%
Details: Only 11 teams have received multiple No. 1 picks in the lottery era, so the Wizards’ luck hasn’t been all bad. But dropping from second to sixth last year was a blow. If their pick had fallen out of the top eight this year, it would have gone to the Knicks, but after finishing with the league’s worst record, Washington doesn’t have to worry about that.
Lottery Wins: None
Other Top-3 Picks: No. 2 in 1985 and 1988
Dropped Out Of Top 3: 1986
Chance Of Receiving No. 1 Pick This Year: 14%
Details: Indiana was one of the worst teams in the league when the lottery began and narrowly missed out on Ewing in 1985. The Pacers’ pick this year goes to the Los Angeles Clippers if it is outside the top four.
Brooklyn/New Jersey Nets
Lottery Wins: 1990 (Derrick Coleman) and 2000 (Kenyon Martin)
Other Top-3 Picks: No. 2 in 1991; No. 3 in 1987 and 2010
Dropped Out Of Top 3: 1988
Chance Of Receiving No. 1 Pick This Year: 14%
Details: The Nets had just a 4% chance at the No. 1 pick when they won it in 2000, and they would have another top pick to their credit if they hadn’t dealt their selection away before the 2017 lottery.
Lottery Wins: None
Other Top-3 Picks: No. 3 in 2011
Dropped Out Of Top 3: 2025
Chance Of Receiving No. 1 Pick This Year: 11.5%
Details: The Jazz haven’t been in the lottery much over the past four decades, and when they have they’ve often been an afterthought. A trade gave them the Nets’ pick at No. 3 in 2011. Last year, Utah was in the top pre-lottery spot but fell to the No. 5 pick.
Lottery Wins: 1989 (Pervis Ellison)
Other Top-3 Picks: No. 2 in 2018; No. 3 in 1991
Dropped Out Of Top 3: 2009 and 2010
Chance Of Receiving No. 1 Pick This Year: 11.5%
Details: Sacramento’s lone lottery victory led to a forgettable selection at No. 1, but the Kings haven’t had as many heartbreaking drops as you might think. Only once, in 2009, have they had the top pre-lottery position.
Memphis/Vancouver Grizzlies
Lottery Wins: None
Other Top-3 Picks: No. 2 in 1998, 1999, 2000, 2009 and 2019; No. 3 in 1996
Dropped Out Of Top 3: 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2018
Chance Of Receiving No. 1 Pick This Year: 9%
Details: Plenty of No. 2 picks but no No. 1s. In 2003, the Grizzlies moved up four spots to No. 2, but that pick belonged to Detroit because of a trade. Had Memphis moved up one more spot to No. 1, its pick would have been protected — and the Grizzlies would have had a chance to draft LeBron James.
Lottery Wins: 2024 (Zaccharie Risacher)
Other Top-3 Picks: No. 2 in 2005; No. 3 in 2001, 2007 and 2018
Dropped Out Of Top 3: None
Chance Of Receiving No. 1 Pick This Year: 9.8%
Details: The Hawks finally exited the never-won-the-lottery club two years ago, making good on a 3% chance to land the first pick. This year Atlanta gets either New Orleans’ first-round pick or Milwaukee’s, whichever is better. (The Pelicans are seventh in the pre-lottery pecking order and the Bucks are 10th.)
Lottery Wins: 2025 (Cooper Flagg)
Other Top-3 Picks: No. 2 in 1994
Dropped Out Of Top 3: 1986, 1992, 1993 and 2018
Chance Of Receiving No. 1 Pick This Year: 6.7%
Details: The Mavericks were one of the unluckiest franchises in lottery history before capitalizing on a 1.8% chance to land Flagg. Before that, Dallas had never once improved its pick position. The mid-1990s were particularly dire. In 1993 the Mavericks went 11-71 but dropped three spots to No. 4. A 13-69 mark the following season didn’t yield the top pick either.
Lottery Wins: 1999 (Elton Brand) and 2008 (Derrick Rose)
Other Top-3 Picks: No. 2 in 2002 and 2006; No. 3 in 2004
Dropped Out Of Top 3: 2000 and 2001
Chance Of Receiving No. 1 Pick This Year: 4.5%
Details: The Bulls landed the No. 1 pick just a season after losing Michael Jordan. They’ve struggled to build a contender since then, but they’ve had their chances.
Lottery Wins: 1994 (Glenn Robinson) and 2005 (Andrew Bogut)
Other Top-3 Picks: No. 2 in 2014
Dropped Out Of Top 3: 2007
Chance Of Receiving No. 1 Pick This Year: None
Details: Neither of those No. 1 picks was as much of a game changer for the Bucks as Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was taken outside the lottery in 2013. If Milwaukee’s pick this year is higher than New Orleans’, it would go to Atlanta and the Bucks would get the Pelicans’ selection.
Lottery Wins: 1995 (Joe Smith)
Other Top-3 Picks: No. 2 in 2020; No. 3 in 1986, 1993 and 2002
Dropped Out Of Top 3: 1985, 1988 and 2001
Chance Of Receiving No. 1 Pick This Year: 2%
Details: The Warriors were the lottery’s first big losers, receiving the No. 7 pick in the very first edition in 1985 after finishing tied for the worst record in the league. It wasn’t long before the NBA changed the rules to make drops of that size impossible.
Oklahoma City Thunder/Seattle SuperSonics
Lottery Wins: None
Other Top-3 Picks: No. 2 in 1990, 2007 and 2022; No. 3 in 2009
Dropped Out Of Top 3: 2008
Chance Of Receiving No. 1 Pick This Year: 1.5%
Details: Of the eight franchises that have never won the lottery, this is one of the luckiest. While in Seattle, the team moved up eight picks to get Gary Payton in 1990 and climbed three spots to select Kevin Durant in 2007. Now the Thunder have the Los Angeles Clippers’ pick.
Lottery Wins: None
Other Top-3 Picks: No. 2 in 2008; No. 3 in 1990
Dropped Out Of Top 3: 1989 and 1991
Chance Of Receiving No. 1 Pick This Year: 1%
Details: The Heat have neither needed nor received much help in the lottery recently, but they could have used some during the franchise’s difficult early years. Miami dropped from first to fourth in 1989 after winning 15 games, then fell from second to fifth a couple of years later.
Charlotte Hornets/Bobcats
Lottery Wins: 1991 (Larry Johnson)
Other Top-3 Picks: No. 2 in 1992, 2012 and 2023; No. 3 in 1999, 2006 and 2020
Dropped Out Of Top 3: 1989, 2005, 2013, 2024 and 2025
Chance Of Receiving No. 1 Pick This Year: 0.5%
Details: Charlotte has had so many lottery appearances that it is not surprising the franchise has experienced some good and bad. Jumping six spots to get Alonzo Mourning in 1992 might’ve been even more important than landing Johnson at No. 1 the year before. The Hornets also moved up a whopping 10 spots to No. 3 in 1999 and took Baron Davis.
Lottery Wins: 1988 (Danny Manning), 1998 (Michael Olowokandi) and 2009 (Blake Griffin)
Other Top-3 Picks: No. 2 in 1989, 1995, 2001 and 2004; No. 3 in 1985 and 2000
Dropped Out Of Top 3: 1987 and 1999
Chance Of Receiving No. 1 Pick This Year: None
Details: The Clippers have had bad luck in a variety of ways, but the lottery has generally treated them fairly. Three No. 1 picks and six more top-three picks more than make up for occasional disappointments, like missing out on David Robinson after a 12-win season in 1987. Los Angeles has to give its pick to Oklahoma City, but the Clippers receive Indiana’s if it is No. 5 or No. 6.
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(AP reviewed data on realgm.com as part of its research to compile this report.)
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AP NBA: https://apnews.com/nba
Noah Trister, The Associated Press
