The Conference Finals are set. After the Montreal Canadiens beat the Buffalo Sabres in a thrilling Game 7 on Monday night, we are left with just four contenders for the Stanley Cup.
The group notably includes the consensus favourites from each conference when the tournament started; the favoured Carolina Hurricanes in the East, and the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Colorado Avalanche in the West.
Let’s preview both matchups, starting in the Eastern Conference.
Montreal Canadiens vs. Carolina Hurricanes
What to know: This may be the ultimate rest-versus-rust series we have ever witnessed in the NHL. The Carolina Hurricanes made tidy work of both the Ottawa Senators and Philadelphia Flyers in a double sweep. Their close-out game against Philadelphia was on May 9, which means they’ll have a 12-day layoff between the end of their second round series and the first game of the Eastern Conference Final. Coupled with how short the series was against Ottawa, Carolina’s rest might be unprecedented – the team will have completed a 26-day stretch in which they played just five games!
The Montreal advantage: You won’t find a team with better regular-season results against the Hurricanes than the Canadiens. We are only talking about three games, but all three games came after the turn of the calendar year and Montreal won all three in regulation, outscoring Carolina 15-8 (+7) in the process. Perhaps there was some puck luck there (Carolina’s goaltenders in these games stopped a shockingly poor 75.0 per cent of shots faced), but even expected goals – blind to the performance of the respective goaltenders – were in favour of Montreal (50.5 per cent). And most encouragingly, if you are a Canadiens fan, a lot of that scoring success was through the big guns at the top of the lineup. The combination of Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Nick Suzuki had eight goals in these three games. Simply put: there’s credible evidence Montreal can skate with Carolina and then some, in stark contrast to most of the teams around the league.
The Carolina advantage: Perhaps Ottawa ran out of steam. Perhaps Philadelphia was an underwhelming second-round opponent given what other teams (like Colorado facing a dangerous Minnesota club) had to face in terms of quality of competition. Still, do not discount just how lethal this Hurricanes team is defensively. The Rod Brind’Amour era has been defined by an unrelenting forecheck and a pace of play that stifles opponents, and to dismiss how dominant this team is defending the run of play because of their 2026 postseason opponents would be foolish at best. In the last five seasons, they rank second in goals conceded (all situations) and first in expected goals conceded. What’s different now is goaltender Frederik Andersen has been on a heater this postseason (95.0 per cent stop rate; +15 goals saved versus expected), a monstrous step up from what we saw from Andersen and Brandon Bussi in the regular season. Couple great goaltending with Carolina’s ability to protect the most dangerous areas of the defensive zone, and you have a team that’s very difficult to score on (defensive heat maps via HockeyViz):
Player to Watch: It’s the small but mighty Logan Stankoven. Lost in Carolina’s double sweep was that much of the work was not completed by their top-line of Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho, and Seth Jarvis, who were relatively quiet through the firsts two rounds. It’s been Stankoven (playing with Taylor Hall and Jackson Blake) who have been doing nearly all of the damage; Stankoven has seven goals in eight games and against the likes of Ottawa and Philadelphia, this trio won the goal differential battle 11-1 (+10). Stankoven was part of the colossal Mikko Rantanen trade between Dallas and Carolina last year, and he has fit in seamlessly with this Hurricanes group.
Pick: I don’t want to overweight the regular season results, but it’s clear Montreal’s talent can skate with Carolina and coupled with the play of Jakub Dobes in net, I expect the Canadiens to be an absolute handful for Carolina – unquestionably their toughest draw of the postseason so far. That said, I think this is the year the Hurricanes get over the playoff hump. Carolina in six.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Colorado Avalanche
What to Know: Colorado steamrolled a 112-point Dallas Stars team and a 104-point Minnesota Wild team that acquired superstar defenceman Quinn Hughes in the middle of the season; there’s a reason they are the prohibitive favourite to win it all. But standing in their way is a daunting foe in the Vegas Golden Knights; a veteran-led team that plays within structure and one that has already shown it can slay the Colorado goliath. Remember, the last time Colorado won the Presidents’ Trophy (2020-21), they ran into a game Vegas team seemingly unphased by their pace of play, with the Golden Knights advancing in six games.
The Vegas advantage: Vegas sleepwalks their way deep into the playoffs seemingly every season; the question this year – fairly, I would submit – concerns the quality of the roster. On one hand, they have been playing much better under John Tortorella after a late-season coaching change, and have found real goaltending stability – their biggest bugaboo in the regular season – through Carter Hart (89.1 per cent stop rate; +8.5 goals saved versus expected). On the other hand, Colorado is a decisive step up in quality of competition from the likes of Utah and Anaheim. I will continue to point to Vegas’ special teams as a core strength though, even in a series like this. Their 9.6 goals per 60 minutes on the power play was third best during the regular season and they are still hovering around that average in the postseason. A lot of it has to do with personnel. There are few better playmakers in the game than the likes of Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, and Tomas Hertl – add a finisher like the red-hot Pavel Dorofeyev (nine goals already this postseason), and you have the recipe for a lethal man advantage. The Avalanche must stay out of the penalty box in this round.
The Colorado advantage: When you think of the Avalanche, you think of a team four lines deep that can seemingly score on any shift – it’s been their calling card for years now and this season was no different. But this isn’t the same Colorado team as we saw in seasons prior, and a key reason for that is material improvement at the goaltending position. Investments in the tandem of Scott Wedgewood and Mackenzie Blackwood has paid off handsomely. As a duo they stopped more than 91.0 per cent of shots faced this year (a staggering 50 goals above expected, it also should be noted) enroute to a Jennings Trophy. Great Colorado teams in years past have suffered through occasional goaltending meltdowns in the playoffs, but it’s been sunshine and blue skies through the first two rounds here. Even amidst Hart stabilizing the Vegas net, there’s little question in my mind which team has the goaltending advantage here, and that’s Colorado. That’s not something we have necessarily suggested in years past.
Player to Watch: How can it not be Mitch “Made For May” Marner? Toronto Maple Leafs fans will balk at the nickname but he has been on absolute fire with Vegas in his first postseason, including what looks like the goal of the Stanley Cup Playoffs against Anaheim. Marner’s 18 points lead all skaters in playoff scoring and there are no signs of that slowing down. The playmaking winger gets to play with two of the smartest players in the game in Mark Stone and William Karlsson, and it makes the Golden Knights very dangerous behind the Eichel-led top line.
Pick: I think this version of Vegas is much better than the one we saw during the regular season, and I wasn’t surprised to hear Avs coach Jared Bednar talk about how difficult he thought this third-round battle would be. But it’s difficult to find any flaw on this Colorado team amidst their defensive improvements. I’ll take Colorado in six games to advance.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, HockeyViz, Hockey Reference
