Intriguing buy-low candidate, or buyer beware? That’s the question NHL front offices are wrestling with this summer as they evaluate Vancouver Canucks forward Elias Pettersson – a once promising player whose production has dramatically waned in recent years.
Pettersson’s career arc has been nothing short of baffling. His two-year stretch from 2022-24 – in which he amassed 191 points, sandwiched between the likes of Toronto’s Auston Matthews and Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby – earned himself a massive extension from the Canucks front office, who saw him as a long-term first-line centre and inked him to an eight-year, $93-million deal.
But it’s been a steady decline from Pettersson since that extension. It’s never easy to watch a struggling player on a talent-poor team, but Pettersson’s fall from an ultra-productive forward to one who managed just 51 points a season ago has been shocking.
At 27, Pettersson should be in his peak performance window. And now, the question is whether the Pettersson of yesteryear can be rediscovered on another team, or if he’s already a declining player on a massive – and perhaps untradeable – contract.
The first discouraging sign for potential trade suitors is the counting numbers have slid in step with other benchmarks. His shot rates at both even strength and on the power play are down (the latter, considerably down), and expected goal rates have slid as well:
When you watch Pettersson on tape from his peak seasons to now, it’s noticeable how much lighter he was on his skates back in 2022-24. Pettersson had an elite skating burst coupled with a quick release and was able to operate comfortably in tight spaces, as you would expect from a top-line centre.
Whether it’s his previous knee injuries or something else altogether, it’s evident he’s lost some skating juice, and I wonder how much that’s contributing to the reduced offensive shot volume (and, by extension, his scoring).
What also stands out from last season is the Canucks looked more or less like the same team with Pettersson on versus off the ice – marginally more dangerous on the attack, marginally more giving on the defensive side of the ice, which you can apportion to the quality of competition a top-six line typically faces.
But for a player with a $11.6 million cap hit through 2031-32, this is not what you want to see (via HockeyViz):
If there’s one legitimate defence of Pettersson (and what interested buyers may be looking at), it’s dissecting how much of Pettersson’s individual game has devolved versus the talent of those around him.
For example, last year’s wingers were typically Jake DeBrusk and Evander Kane – nice players, but middle-six options at this point of their respective careers, and two guys who played at replacement-level quality in 2025-26. Add that to the loss of superstar blueliner Quinn Hughes mid-year, and you have a meaningful drop in teammate quality:
It seems hard to believe a player who looked tremendous early in his career is not salvageable in some capacity, but even teams bullish on a bounce back have to wrestle with the reality that a bad bet here could be significantly costly – even with limited assets going out in a trade. Pettersson’s sizable contract runs through the 2031-32 season. It’s the sort of hit that can really challenge a team’s cap dynamic, and it’s why teams are being so measured in their approach right now.
Ultimately I think Pettersson’s days in Vancouver are numbered. The hope in the Canucks front office, perhaps, is the rebound starts in Vancouver as soon as this season, and his contract (and improved play) become appetizing once more on the trade market.
With an expanding salary cap ceiling and better offensive production, Pettersson’s contract gets upgraded from toxic to intriguing.
We’ll see if anything shakes out this summer, or if his future may come into clearer picture at next year’s trade deadline.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, HockeyViz
