In one respect, it’s a surprise the Vegas Golden Knights are one game away from another Stanley Cup Final appearance. We are talking about a 95-point team that was on the ropes against the Utah Mammoth during large stretches of the opening round.
And yet, this is Vegas. The Golden Knights are as reliable as the sun rising and setting come playoff time. The success this franchise has found since the expansion draft a decade ago is without parallel, and even in a relative down year for the team (which including firing their head coach with two weeks left in the season), Vegas has found another gear. They remain several steps ahead of the rest of the National Hockey League, and with one more win will take the head of the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Colorado Avalanche.
So, what’s driving their surge out of the Western Conference this year? I think it boils down to three specific components, with an honourable mention nod to interim head coach John Tortorella — like it or not, he appears to have been a great hire to lead this seasoned and experienced roster.
1. An indomitable penalty kill
The sole reason Vegas was able to survive the Pacific Division pillow fight this year was through their special teams’ play. The power play ranked third in the NHL (9.6 goals per-60 minutes); their penalty kill was eighth (6.9 goals conceded per 60 minutes). Given the personnel you can find on this roster, it’s not a surprise they outperformed on both sides of the aisle.
But this playoff run has been defined by the penalty kill and its ability to erase just about every mistake that the team has made through the first three rounds. In 15 games, Vegas has been outscored 5-4 (-1) on the penalty kill, a staggering accomplishment. In the NHL’s modern era, where scoring is prolific and power plays can single-handedly win a series, a penalty kill capable of playing to break-even level is as lethal a weapon as you can find.
Compared to their peers (table below shows all teams who reached the second round of play), there is no comparison:
There’s no question Carter Hart has been an upgrade in net over previous starter Adin Hill (more on this later), but I think you have to recognize the resources Tortorella has at his disposal here.
Brayden McNabb, Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin, and Shea Theodore give him two distinct and skilled defensive penalty-kill units capable of slowing down any opposing attack. Put defensive stalwarts like Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, and Nic Dowd in front of those defencemen, and you have the recipe for creating shutdown units.
To be just one goal underwater on the penalty kill this deep into the playoffs is a remarkable accomplishment and a big reason Vegas is sitting pretty heading into Game 4 of the Western Conference Final.
2: Magic Mitch Marner
Marner is scorching hot. It is surely a torturous watch for Maple Leafs fans, who wanted to see the playmaking winger chase a Stanley Cup with the team that drafted him back in 2015. Instead, their nightmare scenario is playing out – Marner is thriving in the postseason on a second line with Brett Howden and William Karlsson, and as it stands today is the odds-on favourite for Conn Smythe honours.
He’s a big piece of the penalty kill, his line is outscoring teams 10-to-7 (+3) at even strength, and he’s leading the entire playoff field in scoring. And it’s not just empty-calorie secondary assists – his seven goals and 11 primary assists alone would lead all other players!
One of the interesting wrinkles about how Vegas is deploying their lineup is their three stars – Mark Stone, Eichel and Marner – are playing on distinct lines. Vegas carries one of the deepest forward groups in the league and against a team like Colorado, that’s a must, or your team is at the risk of being skated out of the arena.
From a matchup perspective, it’s been Eichel’s line going head-to-head with Nathan MacKinnon, which has left the Marner line to deal with defensive stalwarts in Artturi Lehkonen, Gabriel Landeskog, and Brock Nelson.
Eichel taking on the MacKinnon minutes puts a burden on Marner and company to win their minutes further down the lineup. So far, so very good there.
3. A major goaltending rebound
Two things can be true at the same time: Hart has been a sizable upgrade over Hill in net, but the defensive play in front of Hart has dramatically improved since the regular season as well.
Hart is stopping just over 89 per cent of shots (and right near league averages), but this Vegas team doesn’t need the reincarnation of Dominik Hasek or Martin Brodeur manning their net. They just can’t be sunk by horrific play.
Consider what this postseason has looked like relative to the prior six months. Simply regressing their save percentage – a function of both goaltending and the defensive play in front of said goaltending – back towards league average has turned Vegas into a monster:
As someone who has been perennially bullish on the Golden Knights, I’ve been reticent to pick against them in years prior. But the leakiness of this team during the regular season convinced me the Mammoth had a genuine chance to upset them in the first round. Given what we have seen from Anaheim and Colorado in the second and third rounds against Vegas, I think my thesis that Utah was a dangerous opponent for any team was correct.
But Hart, at least for now, appears to have fixed the Vegas goaltending problem – something I didn’t foresee happening. Now we are talking about a loaded team with very few discernible holes on its roster.
And with one more victory, the Golden Knights will return to the Stanley Cup Final for a third time in nine seasons. Simply remarkable.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Hockey Reference, Evolving Hockey
