In a North Alberta clearing, moving collectively in a formation that looks well-rehearsed, they track upslope, feeding off the freshest growth. The herd is surfing the green wave and it’s flourishing after many spring seasons in a row spent starving.
The Elks are 2-0 after last week’s OT win in Montreal. It was the one game I stayed away from, but still went 3-0 on game picks (3-1 overall).
There’s a lot to like about Edmonton early this season. In fact, this team has been trending upwards since Week 8 last season when Cody Fajardo took over at quarterback. They’re 11-4 against the spread during that span.
This week they’re on the road again, on short rest, while the Blue Bombers are coming off a bye. Winnipeg had the best home record in the league last season to match the highest average attendance.
Maybe the smart money is on the home side? But this is 3rd and 1.
Edmonton Elks at Winnipeg Blue Bombers
The Elks could be emotionally spent after Saturday’s triumph. They’re on four days rest and they had to travel halfway back across the country. The Bombers are waiting with a sour taste in their mouths after losing at home to the Ti-Cats in Week 2.
The question becomes: How much will those intangibles matter if one team is tangibly better than the other? It’s a small sample size, but on defence Edmonton is allowing the fewest points per game, the fewest yards per game, and the fewest yards per play.
By comparison, Winnipeg’s once mighty defence is middle of the pack in most categories, except one. The Bombers are getting torched on the ground. They’ve allowed 171 rushing yards per game, 45 more than any other team. Now, they welcome in Justin Rankin – the man Milt Stegall called “the most explosive player in the league.”
THE PICK: ELKS +3.5
PLAYER PROP: JUSTIN RANKIN OVER 84.5 RUSHING YARDS
Milt makes bold statements, but that isn’t one of them. Rankin is the fourth choice to win MOP at +650. No other non-QB has shorter than +3500 odds. He’s averaging nine yards a carry and 140 yards a game. That’s just on the ground. Rankin is also a top 20 receiver with 10 catches for 145 yards in two games. It’s a mouth-watering combination of power and speed that he possesses.
Consider this: Rankin has touchdown runs of 61 yards, 47 yards, and 36 yards this season. No other player has more than one 20-plus-yard run. Rankin also broke off a 64-yard touchdown run against the Bombers in week 19 last season. He finished with 138 yards in that game, his last against Winnipeg, and the Elks won by five.
Toronto Argonauts at Saskatchewan Roughriders
The Riders had a banner raising, a rematch of the West Final against BC, then an overtime win over the Stamps after going winless against them last season. Now they host the Argos on a short week. For a veteran group, this game might not have the same juice as their first two.
Meanwhile, Toronto’s offence has the potential to be explosive. Chad Kelly’s arm is as strong as ever, even if his decision making looked a little rusty at times last week. He threw four interceptions, but the Argos still won by 20. Toronto has the firepower to keep it close against the Grey Cup favourites, and maybe even steal a win in Saskatchewan.
THE PICK: ARGONAUTS +3.5
BONUS PLAYER PROP: DAMONTE COXIE OVER 45.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Damonte Coxie was out of synch with his quarterback in Week 1. Blame it on lack of reps. It was Kelly’s first real game since 2024. They connected on just two passes despite seven attempts.
Last week was a building block as they hooked up for 57 yards and a touchdown on three catches. For a receiver as talented as Coxie, with a quarterback who can throw it like Kelly, 45.5 feels more like the floor.
Ottawa Redblacks at Montreal Alouettes
After just two games, Jake Maier’s critics were calling for a quarterback change. So, Ryan Dinwinddie responded by shipping backup Dru Brown to the Bombers. It was a move reminiscent of Billy Beane in Moneyball: “I’m just saying you can’t start Pena at first… he plays for Detroit now.”
At this early stage, it’s safe to say the Redblacks are the worst team in the league. They have the longest odds to win the Grey Cup at +3300, and no other team has longer than +1100 odds.
The market reflects the fact that every other franchise has an established and productive starter under centre. Dinwiddie is known for getting the best out of his quarterbacks, and I believe his Redblacks will take an upward turn eventually. But not this week in Montreal with the Als coming off Davis Alexander’s first career regular-season defeat.
THE PICK: ALOUETTES -7.5
