| Record | Last Week | Season |
|---|---|---|
| Game Picks | 1-2 | 33-25 |
| Player Props | 0-1 | 9-9 |
| Total | 1-3 | 42-34 |
A Grey Cup champ recently told me that a quarterback’s mobility becomes more important the bigger the game gets, especially in the CFL. The margins are so tight. Each team is amply prepared. It’s more difficult for a QB if they struggle to make things happen off script because good teams are ready for the on-script stuff. It got me thinking about a changing of the guard that could be coming sooner rather than later. Bo Levi Mitchell, Zach Collaros and Trevor Harris are all top 15 all-time in CFL passing yards. They all have more than enough experience to give their teammates, coaches and fans confidence that the moment won’t be too big. But I hope it’s not ageist to say that their ability to make magic with their legs is limited at this stage of their careers. Meanwhile, two playoff-bound quarterbacks can both pull the proverbial rabbit out of their hat. Nathan Rourke and Davis Alexander might lack the experience of their counterparts, but the dual threat they pose will keep defences on their heels. They’re at the helm of the hottest teams in the league and could very well be on opposite sidelines at the end of November.
Quit dreaming about the big dance! My recent record suggests I should lock in. So here goes: Motivation matters. A team needs something to play for and there are a trio of teams in week 20 that are only focused on the future. For that reason, it’s all about the favourites.
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers
The Riders are among the teams focused on the future, but unlike the Argos and Redblacks, their future is only a few weeks away. Having already booked the West Final in Regina, the Riders’ only responsibility left is to rest. Trevor Harris will be joined by on the sidelines by more than half his fellow starters on both sides of the ball. The Bombers don’t have the luxury to look ahead. They’re fourth in the West with a .500 record but nobody is better at home. Winnipeg is 5-2 at Princess Auto Stadium compared to 3-6 on the road. Look no further than their last two games. The Bombers are coming off a loss in Edmonton in which they scored 20 points. Prior to their week 18 bye, they doubled that total at home, embarrassing the East-leading Ti-Cats 40-3. With their final two regular season games in Winnipeg, the Bombers should punch their ticket to the dance.
THE PICK: BLUE BOMBERS -8.5
Edmonton Elks at BC Lions
Nobody’s made me a winner more than the Elks this season. It’s been a remarkable run in which they’ve covered the spread in ten of their last 11 games. I’ve become a fan but objectively I think the playoff dream that’s been alive since Cody Fajardo took over in mid-July will die under the dome. Fajardo says the Elks are built for the playoffs and I don’t disagree. They run the ball, their defence has improved dramatically since the start of the season, and they don’t turn it over. Fajardo hasn’t thrown a pick since week 12. He’s had a career-high 172 pass attempts without an interception. That is a recipe for success in playoff conditions. Unfortunately, the Elks aren’t made for a track meet. At BC Place, indoors, against the best offence in the league, Fajardo could be forced from his comfort zone. The Elks haven’t scored more 31 points since he took over as the starter. By comparison, the Lions have scored at least 33 points in all but one game since week 7. One turnover could be enough for the Lions to feast.
THE PICK: LIONS -5.5
Montreal Alouettes at Ottawa Redblacks
Tyrie Adams makes his second career start for the Redblacks. His first was more than two years ago and he earned the win but tore his ACL in the process. So, he’s undefeated as a starter in the CFL at 1-0, nine wins shy of Davis Alexander’s record. The Als are as dominant as ever with Alexander back under centre. They’ve won each of their last two games by no less than 18 points, including a 20-point win over Ottawa last week at home. Montreal still has a chance to catch Hamilton for first in the East, and neither team will want to face whoever’s coming east for the Semi.
THE PICK: ALOUETTES -10.5
Toronto Argonauts at Calgary Stampeders
Without our usual array of player props at print time, I’m taking a fourth favourite this week. The Argos are auditioning at almost every position. The coaching staff is secure enough to experiment with the rest of their season. Meanwhile, the Stamps turned from a pumpkin into a what appeared to be a playoff team last week in Hamilton. Their once dominant defence had its best game since the start of September. Vernon Adams protected the football after throwing seven picks in the previous three weeks. It helps that Dedrick Mills had over 100 yards and he could be in line for another big day.
THE PICK: STAMPEDERS -9.5
