Josh Allen is the exception to the rules.
Don’t draft a QB in the first round in fantasy football?
He scores the most fantasy points by any player at any position in the first two weeks of a season since 2000.
Elite quarterbacks need an elite No. 1 wide receiver?
He throws for 248 yards, runs for 69 yards, scores five total touchdowns and D.J. Moore didn’t have a catch.
Lean under when you see an NFL Thursday Night Football total in the 50’s?
Allen and the Buffalo Bills nearly get there on their own in a 41-31 win over the Detroit Lions that went way over the total 54.5 with a combined 72 points.
The Bills entered Week 1 with the same quarterback and the same play-caller as last season, yet somehow the offence has looked completely different.
Allen has averaged 337.0 total yards and 4.5 touchdowns.
He just became the first player in NFL history to record back-to-back games with multiple TD passes and multiple TD runs on multiple occasions, which is something no other player in NFL history has done even once.
In just 10 days, Allen has gone from +500 to +260 as the favourite to win AP NFL regular season MVP at FanDuel.
It makes sense considering each of the previous two QBs that registered nine total touchdowns and zero turnovers through their first two games went on to win MVP.
We’re watching in real time as the best quarterback on the planet is having his full potential unleashed in an offence that features a nearly identical cast of skill players but a much more creative and aggressive approach.
As if the first two weeks weren’t enough fun to watch, the Bills face Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers, Drake Maye and the New England Patriots, then Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams the next three weeks.
Fortunately, Moore’s injury isn’t as serious as it looked, which means he should be back for Week 4 at the latest.
In the meantime, we’ve got another loaded football menu on deck with Week 16 in the CFL set to kick off with the Hall of Fame game tonight, LSU versus Ole Miss on Saturday, and another loaded NFL Sunday slate.
After a hot start with my FanDuel Best Bets for Week 2, I’ve got my eye on the most lopsided matchup on paper for this Sunday with two more plays to consider.
I’ll break them down here in this Morning Coffee column for Friday September 18th, 2026.
49ers In Historic Territory As A Massive Favourite Versus Dolphins In Week 2
It’s been five years since the last time that an NFL team closed as a favourite of 13 points or more in Week 2.
In fact, since 1990, only six NFL teams have closed +13 or higher after entering the year with a win total below 5.
Those six teams went a combined 0-6 straight up and 1-5 against the spread, failing to cover by an average of 11.7 points per game.
Another team could be added to that list this Sunday.
The San Francisco 49ers are a 13.5-point favourite against the Miami Dolphins at FanDuel.
If the current number holds, it will mark the fourth time that a Kyle Shanahan team has closed as a double-digit favourite in the first four weeks of the season.
Shanahan’s teams went 3-0 straight up and against the spread in the previous three instances, winning by an average of 18 points per game.
The 49ers have also covered four straight games as a double-digit favourite.
Sunday’s game between the 49ers and Dolphins is the biggest mismatch of the week on paper.
The only question mark is what kind of impact travel has on San Francisco after a long return trip from Australia.
In terms of the actual x’s and o’s, it appears the 49ers offence is being underrated in this spot.
Brock Purdy delivered an efficient performance in Week 1 in Melbourne, going 24-of-34 for 205 yards and three touchdown passes in a 27-7 win over the Rams.
He also ran for 29 yards to cash over 17.5 rushing as one of my FanDuel Best Bets for TNF in Week 1.
Meanwhile, Shanahan’s rushing attack gashed LA on the ground, with Christian McCaffrey and rookie Kaelon Black combining for 133 rushing yards on 5.54 yards per carry.
San Francisco’s 56.7% rushing success rate and 0.19 EPA per carry against the Rams were better marks than they recorded in any game last season.
What was the key to their run game success?
The 49ers used pre-snap motion on 65.6 per cent of their plays in Week 1 – the highest rate of any single game in the Shanahan era.
San Francisco relied on creativity, timing, speed, and physicality to walk the line between legal and illegal motion versus LA, keeping the Rams defence off guard and ultimately wearing them down over four quarters.
McCaffrey averaged 6.8 yards per carry, rushing for 68 yards with five receptions for another 20 yards.
The rookie third round pick Black led the 49ers with 14 carries and finished with 65 rushing yards on 4.6 YPC.
Looking ahead to Sunday’s matchup, San Francisco has the potential to throttle Miami with a similar game plan.
First-year Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley has the youngest defence in the NFL by a mile.
That Miami defence just gave up 143 rushing yards on 4.76 yards per carry to Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. in a 27-13 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders.
Now they’ll face an even better offensive line, with an even better game plan, on the road in San Francisco.
In case you missed it, I recommended a play on Black over 36.5 rushing yards as a best bet for Week 2.
For perspective, Black’s rushing yards prop was 8.5 at FanDuel in Week 1 against the Rams.
That number is up to 39.5 at FanDuel this morning.
Black averaged 4.6 yards on 14 carries against LA.
Unfortunately, San Francisco’s rookie third round pick was limited in practice with a groin injury on Thursday.
However, Shanahan downplayed any injury talk and there was a long list of 49ers that were either limited or didn’t practice after the long trip back from Australia, so make sure to follow me @Domenic_Padula on X for any updates on the Black rushing prop.
In the meantime, we already know that fellow rookie De’Zhaun Stribling will be out long term with an ankle injury that he suffered against the Rams.
Stribling’s injury opens the door for veterans Deebo Samuel and DeMarcus Robinson to potentially get more snaps against Miami behind Mike Evans.
In Week 1, Robinson ran 19 routes and was on the field for 62.5 per cent of San Francisco’s offensive snaps.
Evans was the only 49ers wide receiver that played more snaps (75%) and ran more routes (23) than Robinson.
Samuel was on the field for 40.6 per cent of the snaps and ran 16 routes.
Stribling was on the field for 32.8 per cent of the snaps and ran 13 routes before leaving with an injury.
Stribling wasn’t targeted once against the Rams, but Robinson and Samuel could both see a small bump in playing time with him sidelined.
In addition to a small opportunity bump, Purdy gets a much more favourable matchup this week versus Miami.
Kirk Cousins went 21-of-30 for 160 yards and three touchdowns with two interceptions against the Dolphins in Week 1.
His No. 1 option was tight end Michael Mayer, who had six catches for 32 yards on seven targets.
Jeanty led Las Vegas with six receptions for 45 yards and two touchdown catches.
Now the Dolphins will face a lineup that features Evans, Robinson, Samuel, CMC, Black and George Kittle.
I’ll add Samuel over 31.5 receiving yards, and Robinson over 25.5 receiving yards as best bets for Sunday’s game.
Samuel, and Mike Evans, led San Francisco with six catches each against Miami.
Evans finished with six for 49 yards on seven targets.
Samuel finished with six for 48 on seven targets.
Robinson had only two catches but led the 49ers with 50 receiving yards thanks to a 39-yard touchdown catch.
With Stribling out and a much more favourable matchup, I’m counting on all three wide receivers stepping up with equal or better production than what we saw in Week 1.
Hopefully, Purdy and the 49ers can take advantage of a solid matchup on paper in a lopsided win at home.
Have a great weekend, everyone!
