Morning Coffee: Can McDavid, Oilers end Canada’s Stanley Cup drought?

Canadians expect hockey gold like we expect winter snow.

This morning, the whole country is buried under a blanket of disbelief after USA Hockey did the unthinkable and pulled off back-to-back overtime victories over Canada to sweep the hockey golds in Italy.

Full credit to the Americans – a little magic was overdue.

Just 24 hours after Megan Keller’s golden goal sealed it for the US women’s team, Jack Hughes delivered in OT to hand Team USA its first men’s hockey gold since 1980.

It wasn’t The Miracle on Ice; it was The Score.

Connor Hellebuyck channelled Nick Wells, delivering a masterful performance with one seemingly impossible save after another to steal gold from Canada in Milan.

When was it you started thinking you were better than me?

Canada dominated the chances but couldn’t finish.

Tournament MVP Connor McDavid and breakout star Macklin Celebrini were turned away by Hellebuyck on breakaway opportunities.

Nathan MacKinnon missed an open net by inches.

Devon Toews was robbed point blank in the blue paint.

Canadian hockey fans might have been able to stomach a split, but getting swept with both gold medals decided at 3-on-3 is nightmare fuel.

It’s only the fourth time in eight Olympics that one nation has clinched both men’s and women’s gold.

Canada owns the previous three sweeps, including epic wins over the USA in 2002 and 2010.

This time around, what many of us imagined could have been an all-time iconic sports weekend quickly devolved into something that Canadians from coast to coast will be trying to erase from our collective memory.

As if the OT heartbreaks weren’t brutal enough, fans scrolling social media had salt rubbed in their wounds as Canadian NHL team accounts congratulated their American stars during the silver medal ceremony, complete with those awkward stuffed animals.

Watching the best hockey players on the planet skate off the ice in Italy with plush toys in hand was a surreal moment after an epic 61 minutes and 41 seconds.

Now, they’ll shift their focus to a return to the NHL.

While most of his teammates will return to US cities, McDavid heads to Edmonton looking to lead the Oilers to their first Stanley Cup victory since 1990.

Unfortunately for Canadian hockey fans, the Oilers aren’t just the country’s best shot at ending the country’s Stanley Cup drought – they might be their only hope.

Let’s dive into FanDuel’s updated Stanley Cup futures in this Morning Coffee for Monday February 23^rd, 2026.

Can McDavid, Oilers End Canada’s Stanley Cup Drought?

The Oilers were a co-favourite to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel entering the 2025-26 NHL regular season.

With 24 games left, they’re four points back of the Vegas Golden Knights for first place in the Pacific Division with one more game played.

Edmonton is still on pace to reach the postseason.

However, the Oilers’ odds to win the Stanley Cup have climbed from +800 to +1100 as the fifth choice at FanDuel.

While their number has dipped, it’s nothing like the freefall that we’ve seen from several other teams.

The Dallas Stars were also a Stanley Cup co-favourite at +800 at one point.

Their odds have ballooned to +2000 at FanDuel.

The two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers - eight points out of a playoff spot with 25 games remaining - have slipped from +900 to +2000.

Despite that move, the Panthers still have shorter odds to win it all than some of the teams they are chasing like the Buffalo Sabres (+4000), Detroit Red Wings (+5500), Pittsburgh Penguins (+6500), New York Islanders (+6500), and the Boston Bruins (+15000).

The Montreal Canadiens, which currently own the best record of any Eastern Conference team other than the Tampa Bay Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes, are still considered a long shot Stanley Cup contender at +3500.

As it stands this morning, the Oilers and Canadiens are on pace to be Canada’s only playoff teams.

Montreal is -550 to make the playoffs at FanDuel.

That number represents an 84.6 per cent implied chance that the Habs reach the postseason.

Edmonton is -390 to make the playoffs for a 79.6 per cent implied probability.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators are both six points back of the final Eastern Conference Wild Card spot this morning.

Ottawa is +185 to make the playoffs at FanDuel.

Toronto is a whopping +340 to make the playoffs.

For perspective on how drastically the outlook in Ontario has shifted since the start of the season, FanDuel offered an NHL Futures Day special with both the Maple Leafs and Senators to make the playoffs at +200 in August.

A parlay with Toronto and Ottawa to both reach the playoffs is up to +1154 at FanDuel this morning.

All seven Canadian teams to miss the playoffs is +4000.

While Edmonton and Montreal are on pace to make the playoffs, FanDuel’s exact stage of elimination futures paint a bleak picture for both clubs.

The Canadiens to be eliminated in the first round is -110 at FanDuel this morning, compared to +320 to exit in the conference semi-finals and +1000 for them to go down in the conference finals.

Montreal to reach the Stanley Cup Final is +1300 – still longer odds than Edmonton to win it all at +1100.

Meanwhile, the Oilers are +220 to be eliminated in the first round, +340 to exit in the conference semi-finals, and +470 to go down in the conference finals.

Edmonton to reach the Stanley Cup Final is +600.

As for the most likely exact Stanley Cup Final, Colorado Avalanche versus Tampa Bay Lightning can be found at the exact same odds as the Oilers to win it all at +600.

The Avalanche, led by their Canadian stars MacKinnon, Toews, and Cale Makar, are down to +220 as the favourite to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel.

The Lightning, coached by John Cooper and featuring Brandon Hagel, are down to +500 as the second choice.

Hopefully, you tailed me over the summer when I gave out Colorado at +1000 and Tampa Bay at +1100 as my FanDuel Best Bets to win the Stanley Cup on Futures Day.

Coming off a disappointing weekend, the NHL playoff picture looks grim for Canadian hockey fans.

The Habs Canada’s 40-to-1 long shot bet.

Once again, the Oilers are Canada’s best hope to end the country’s Stanley Cup drought.

And once again, it’s on McDavid’s shoulders.

Let’s just hope we don’t see any of those plush toys in Edmonton when the playoffs roll around in April.