Morning Coffee: Canadiens can punch ticket to second round with a win at home in Game 6

The Stanley Cup Playoffs look a lot different this year.

Three of the four teams that reached the conference finals last spring have already been eliminated.

The Carolina Hurricanes are the lone repeat contender still standing, while the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars just joined the Florida Panthers on the sidelines.

Meanwhile, two teams that didn’t even make the playoffs last year – the Anaheim Ducks and Philadelphia Flyers – have already punched their ticket to the second round.

Cutter Gauthier versus Jamie Drysdale and Trevor Zegras in the Stanley Cup Finals?

At +5500 to be the exact Stanley Cup Matchup, FanDuel is giving that scenario a 1.8 per cent implied probability.

https://x.com/AnaheimDucks/status/2050086484313796639

The Ducks just ended a franchise record eight-season drought without a playoff series win by knocking off the two-time defending Western Conference champions.

Anaheim to win that first round series was +160.

Meanwhile, Quinn Hughes helped the Minnesota Wild clinch their first postseason series win since 2015, snapping a drought of nine straight playoff series losses.

The Wild opened +215 to win their second round series against the Central Division rival Colorado Avalanche.

With the Oilers eliminated, the Montreal Canadiens are officially Canada’s last remaining hope at a Stanley Cup.

No Canadian team has won it all since the Habs in 1993.

Tonight, the Canadiens can clinch a spot in the second round with a win over the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Bell Centre will be absolutely rocking for Game 6.

Can the Habs take advantage and punch their ticket?

Let’s dive into the matchup and lock in a couple of FanDuel Best Bets for tonight in this Morning Coffee column for Friday May 1^st, 2026.

Canadiens Can Punch Ticket To Second Round With A Win At The Bell Centre

The Lightning entered the Stanley Cup Playoffs as the Eastern Conference favourite and the second-biggest favourite to advance to the second round at FanDuel.

Only the Colorado Avalanche at -450 were considered more likely to advance than Tampa Bay at -280.

Anybody who overlooked the Habs was in for a surprise.

The first five games of the series have all been decided by one goal, with the Canadiens jumping out to a 1-0 lead, a 2-1 lead, and now pushing the Bolts to the brink up 3-2.

The score has been tied or within one goal 98.2 per cent of the time in the first five games of the series.

Tampa Bay, which had a 73.7 per cent implied probability to advance according to FanDuel’s odds, won Game 2 in overtime and then rallied from down 2-0 to win Game 4 3-2 the last time these teams played at the Bell Centre.

The biggest surprise is that the Habs are one win away from the second round despite sub-par performances from their best forwards.

Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Ivan Demidov combined for 129 goals and 324 points in the regular season as Montreal’s most productive forwards.

Suzuki is tied for the team lead with five points.

Caufield registered three assists in the first two games but has been held to one goal in the last three games.

Slafkovsky scored a hat-trick in Game 1 but hasn’t registered a point in the last four games.

Demidov has been held scoreless since a Game 1 assist.

With that big four struggling, Montreal has leaned heavily on its bottom six forwards, including a line that features Alexandre Texier, Kirby Dach, and Zach Bolduc.

That trio has combined for 5 goals, 11 points, and a remarkable plus-18 rating in three games together.

The Habs have proved they can push the Bolts to the brink without production from their top six forwards.

As the series shifts back to Montreal for an elimination game, it will be interesting to see if that trend continues.

Meanwhile, the Lightning will continue to lean on their star players as they try to force a Game 7 tonight.

Brandon Hagel and Jake Guentzel have played more minutes than any Canadiens forward in this series.

Only Suzuki has played more minutes than Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Anthony Cirelli.

Hagel played a team-high 23:12 and registered 5 shots on goal in Game 5 but was held without a point for the first time in the series.

Kucherov had a team-high 8 shots on goal on 10 attempts in 21:44 of ice time but didn’t find the score sheet.

Guentzel, who leads Tampa Bay with eight points in the series, scored on one of his four shots on goal in the loss.

For Tampa Bay to avoid elimination on the road tonight, their top six forwards will need to take their game to another level as they play big minutes in Game 6.

The Lightning haven’t scored more than three goals in any game so far in the series.

Jakub Dobes has been solid in net, but his .903 save percentage is proof that he hasn’t had to be elite.

Meanwhile, Andrei Vasilevskiy has posted a .880 save percentage in the series.

Most analysts gave the edge to Tampa Bay in net heading into the first round, and Game 6 will need to play out that way for this series to go the distance.

Teams with a 3-2 lead in a best-of-seven series have gone on to advance 80 per cent of the time.

The Canadiens are 27-3 to advance all-time when they lead 3-2 in a best-of-seven series.

However, the Lightning are 4-6 when trailing 3-2 in a best-of-seven – the second-best win percentage by any team in that situation all-time.

The Bell Centre will be absolutely rocking when the Habs get their first chance to clinch a playoff series in front of a sold-out crowd since 2015.

Montreal is -105 to clinch the series with a win tonight.

Tampa Bay is -114 to send the series to seven and +210 to go back-to-back and advance to the second round.

As for my FanDuel Best Bets, I’ve got a couple in mind.

Hagel burned me in Game 5 when he failed to register a point for the first time in the series.

What are the odds he does it two games in a row?

I’m willing to roll the dice and lock in a builder Same Game Parlay with Hagel to record 1+ point and 3+ shots on goal at -103 as a FanDuel Best Bet.

I’ll take the same approach with Guentzel and play 1+ point and 2+ shots on goal at -123.

Next up, give me Kucherov 4+ shots on goal at +114 and a builder SGP with Kucherov 1+ point and 3+ shots on goal.

That trio combined for 17 shots on goal on 25 attempts the last time we saw them in Game 5.

In an elimination game tonight, I expect them to be busy again, regardless of the final score.

As for Montreal, the unpredictability and relative odds make them a much more difficult team to handicap.

That said, Josh Anderson to register 1+ point is +220.

Anderson is expected to start on a revamped first line that features Suzuki and Caufield, so +220 seems like decent value as he tries to snap his three-game drought.

Meanwhile, Lane Hutson is tied with Suzuki for the team lead with five points in five games in this series.

I’ll add a builder SGP with Hutson 1+ point and 1+ shot on goal at -123 at FanDuel.

As for the rest of tonight’s action, Dylan Guenther has been very good to me this postseason, and I expect that to continue with the Utah Mammoth facing elimination.

I’ll add Guenther 4+ shots on goal -110 as a best bet.

I’ll also jump on the Buffalo Sabres to beat the Boston Bruins and punch their ticket to the second round.

The Sabres outscored the Bruins 9-2 in back-to-back wins in Boston in Game 3 and Game 4.

If it wasn’t for a heroic 25-save performance by Jeremy Swayman in Game 5, they wouldn’t have survived with a 2-1 win in overtime.

I’ll add Sabres moneyline at -113 to a massive NHL card.

Hopefully, we can end the work week on a high note.

Have a great weekend, everyone!