Soccer’s biggest tournament happens every four years.
If you make it all the way to the final four, you better be ready to compete at your absolute best from the opening whistle to the very last kick.
France had lived up to the hype on the road to the tournament semi-finals, looking every bit the part as the favourite to lift the trophy at FanDuel.
Then a strange thing happened on Tuesday in Texas.
France was completely dominated in a 2-0 loss to Spain.
Regardless of whether you were cheering for France or Spain, we all expected far more fireworks from the two European soccer giants with a trip to the final on the line.
Instead, the entire match shifted in one critical moment.
Following a scoreless and somewhat subdued opening 19 minutes, Marc Cucurella swung a casual cross into the France box that appeared destined to end up bouncing harmlessly towards the sideline.
Instead, French defender Lucas Digne ensured the ball didn’t leave the box with his first touch, then carelessly turned to swing his leg and play the ball out of bounds.
A catalogue of errors by Digne in that single moment led to disaster for France.
From his closed-off stance to the decision to play the ball so casually in his own box, to a total lack of awareness that Spain’s 18-year-old superstar Lamine Yamal was right behind him and closing fast, Digne did everything wrong.
Instead of clearing the ball, he kicked an airborne Yamal, resulting in the penalty kick that would change the entire complexion of the match as well as France’s tournament.
As shocking as that moment that led to Mikel Oyarzabal’s penalty kick was, France’s lack of a response in the 2-0 shutout loss was equally puzzling.
Yes, Spain is the one team you never want to fall behind against due to their structure and relentless pace, but it was still shocking to see France’s superstars completely shut down for most of the 90 minutes.
France would finish the match with a .30 expected goals.
That’s their lowest expected goals in any match on soccer’s biggest stage in the last 60 years.
Full marks to Spain for securing their sixth shutout of the tournament, but I expected more from Les Bleus.
While France is headed home, Spain advances and will play the winner of today’s semi-final between England and Argentina.
Spain to win the tournament was cut from +300 to -135 at FanDuel following the win over France.
That number has since moved to -150 this morning.
The expectation is that Spain will remain the favourite regardless of whether England or Argentina advances.
Which side is the better bet to come out on top today?
One thing has become abundantly clear.
Both teams better be ready to play their very best from the opening whistle to the final kick, because as we saw on Tuesday, one mistake could be enough to spell total disaster at this level.
Let’s set the stage for England versus Argentina in this Morning Coffee for Wednesday July 15th, 2026.
Lionel Messi, Argentina Assigned Underdog Role For Semi-Final Versus England
Argentina is on the verge of doing something special.
With a win over England, the Abiceleste would reach the finals in back-to-back editions of soccer’s biggest tournament for the first time since they accomplished that feat back in 1986 and 1990.
Argentina entered the semi-finals with the longest odds to win the tournament at +390.
That number has been trimmed to +370 at FanDuel following Spain’s upset win over France.
While it’s hard for me to imagine Argentina beating England and Spain back-to-back to lift the trophy, Tuesday’s semi-final was another reminder not to put too much stock into what has unfolded to this point.
Argentina was the lone team to reach the quarterfinals without playing a single opponent that was shorter than 100-to-1 to win the tournament at FanDuel pre-draw.
After they cruised through a group that featured Algeria, Austria, and Jordan, Argentina struggled to put away seemingly inferior opponents in Cabo Verde, Egypt, and Switzerland on its road to the final four.
Argentina’s relatively weak schedule makes it a little more difficult to gauge what to expect versus England.
On the one hand, Lionel Messi leads a talented attacking side that has scored three goals in five of its six matches, including all three knockout stage victories.
On the other hand, Argentina conceded twice versus both Cabo Verde and Egypt, with two of its three knockout stage matches requiring extra time.
Meanwhile, Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham have led an England attack that looks more than capable of exploiting Argentina’s defensive struggles in this semi-final.
Bellingham registered braces in wins over Mexico and Norway and is now tied for the team lead with six goals.
Anybody who has paid attention to Argentina’s matches knows how difficult it could be to eliminate the defending champions.
At the same time, England is the favourite to advance, with a chance to reach the final on soccer’s biggest stage for the first time since winning the title back in 1966.
I’ll play Both Teams To Score at -120 as my FanDuel Best Bet for today’s semi-final.
While Messi has been the main man for Argentina once again, Julian Alvarez had his moment versus Switzerland, and it’s hard for me to imagine the defending champions being eliminated with a shutout loss to England.
Argentina has been the highest-scoring team in the tournament but has also conceded multiple goals to inferior opponents in Cabo Verde and Egypt, while also giving up a goal versus both Jordan and Switzerland.
Meanwhile, Bellingham has come alive for the Three Lions, which has scored multiple goals in every match expect for a 0-0 draw versus Ghana in the blistering heat in Boston back on Matchday 2.
The conditions for today’s semi-final should be ideal playing indoors in Atlanta, and I’d be surprised if either team secured a shutout.
Both Teams To Score has cashed in all six knockout stage matches these teams have played.
I’ll bet on that trend to continue in what I hope will turn out to be the more entertaining semi-final of the two.
Have a great day, everyone!
