The script has been followed to perfection.
We always expected that the very best in the world would eventually collide in the final stages of soccer’s greatest tournament.
Now a historic final four is set with giants France, Spain, England, and Argentina set to compete in a dream semi-final on the sport’s biggest stage.
This tournament marks the first time since the official rankings were instated in 1992 that the top four ranked teams have all advanced to the final four at this event.
The eventual winner will become the 11th straight champion that had 12-to-1 odds or shorter to lift the trophy pre-tournament.
Once again, when the stakes are highest, it’s the biggest superstars that expected to shine the brightest.
Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham are set to lead England’s pursuit of its first world title since 1966 versus the legendary Lionel Messi and the defending champions Argentina on Wednesday.
First up, Kylian Mbappe will lead the charge for the tournament favourite France versus the 18-year-old sensation Lamine Yamal and Spain in what promises to be an epic semi-final showdown this afternoon on TSN.
France is down to +140 to lift the trophy at FanDuel.
Spain is a distant second choice at +300 and has climbed from +116 to +136 to qualify for the final this afternoon.
On Monday, the launch of Alberta’s competitive online sports betting market signalled FanDuel’s arrival in the province at midnight mountain time.
33 seconds later, the very first FanDuel wager in the province’s history was placed on France to advance versus Spain.
Will that historic debut bet turn out to be a winner?
From Paris to Marseille, Nice to Bordeaux, and… somewhere in Alberta, one dream unites us all.
We all want to see France advance.
Let’s set the stage for today’s semi-final showdown in this Morning Coffee column for Tuesday July 14th, 2026.
Will The Very First FanDuel Sportsbook Wager In Alberta Be A Winner?
Since the very first whistle, France has lived up to the hype and looked every bit the part as the clear favourite to lift the trophy at FanDuel.
While the focus has been locked on a relentless attack led by Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, and Michael Olise, the most underrated aspect of France’s game is defence.
France didn’t concede a single goal in knockout stage wins over Sweden, Paraguay, and Morocco, outscoring their opponents a combined 6-0.
In those three victories, France conceded a 0.97 combined expected goals.
Mbappe remains the favourite to lead the tournament in goals with eight heading into the final four.
He’s also added three assists and joins Messi as the only players in the last 60 years to register 10 or more goal contributions in multiple appearances on this stage.
While most contenders have one superstar up front, France also has Dembele and Olise, which have combined for 12 goal contributions through six matches.
Bradley Barcola and Desire Doue have combined for three goals and the biggest reason they haven’t produced more is that they are stuck behind the big three of Mbappe, Dembele, and Olise up front.
Sure, Spain should provide France with its toughest challenge of the tournament to date.
The question is can they do enough to upset?
Spain went 650 minutes without conceding a goal before Charles De Ketelaere capitalized on the smallest of windows in the quarterfinals.
While Spain managed to shut the door the rest of the way, they didn’t have to deal with the type of firepower and transition attack that Didier Deschamps can roll out.
Spain has also relied on sending its defenders forward to join the attack to create scoring chances.
While they beat up on Saudi Arabia and Austria with seven goals in those two victories, Spain has been held to four goals in its other four matches versus Cabo Verde, Uruguay, Portugal, and Belgium.
Super substitute Mikel Merino scored the winner at 90’+1’ of a 1-0 win over Portugal in the Round of 16, then doubled down with another winner in the 88th minute of Spain’s 2-1 win over Belgium in the quarterfinals.
All four of Mikel Oyarzabal’s goals came in the lopsided victories over Saudi Arabia and Austria, while Lamine Yamal’s lone goal of the tournament also came against Saudi Arabia on Matchday 2.
While it would be foolish to completely overlook Spain’s skill, structure, creativity, and ability to dominate possession, their lack of finish is an obvious concern.
Cabo Verde, Uruguay, Portugal, and Belgium were all able to frustrate Spain, with all four of those teams combining to allow just two goals prior to the 88th minute.
Meanwhile, France has had no issues converting in the attacking third with two or more goals in all but one of their matches, including two in quick succession in a span of six minutes versus Morocco.
That quick-strike ability combined with their solid defensive form make France an obvious favourite to lift the trophy among the final four teams.
They’re also a popular bet to advance at FanDuel.
Per the FanDuel traders, 70 per cent of the bets and 89 per cent of the stakes are on France to advance.
That action has led to Spain to advance climbing from +120 to +136 at FanDuel over the past 24 hours.
Prior to the start of the tournament, I recommended plays on France to lift the trophy at +700 and France to be the top UEFA team at +340.
With two units to risk 10.4 units pending, I’m in an interesting position.
France is clearly the most talented and complete team in the tournament, and I have no reason to think they don’t deserve to be an obvious favourite to lift the trophy.
I’m not interested in blowing up my edge by over-hedging, but I’m also not interested in anybody who tailed me walking away without a profit at this point.
If France and Argentina win in the semi-finals, we’ll cash France to be the top UEFA team at +340.
If France and England win, then everything will be on the line in the final with England at plus-money.
If Spain pulls off the upset versus France, the result would be a loss of two units.
The smart play is to let it ride with France.
Spain’s lack of finish has been an obvious concern and their most likely path to an upset isn’t a win by multiple goals over a powerhouse team in France.
If France strikes first versus Spain, my outlook improves.
If Spain strikes first or the game is scoreless late, then I should still have options to make a play that allows me to hedge off my position on France.
Meanwhile, for anybody who didn’t tail me from the outset, I believe France to advance is the play today.
Nobody is discounting Spain’s upset potential as the pre-tournament favourite at FanDuel and the second choice to lift the trophy behind France for most of the event.
However, France is equally up to the challenge defensively, and their quick-strike ability makes them the more complete side entering this semi-final.
I’ll lock in France to advance at -142 as a FanDuel Best Bet for this Morning Coffee column.
If you tailed me before the tournament and risked two units to win 10.4 betting on France to lift the trophy and be the top UEFA team and you want to secure a profit, I wouldn’t blame you.
Still, I’m letting it ride and locking in France to advance at -142 as my FanDuel Best Bet for today’s semi-final.
Hopefully, the first FanDuel wager in Alberta’s history is a winner.
Have a great day, everyone!
