Morning Coffee: The Oilers are being overlooked as a Stanley Cup contender once again

The Anaheim Ducks were my favourite longshot bet to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs at +520.

An extensive list of factors that led to the selection included talent, depth, division, and price tag.

Cutter Gauthier’s arrival also factored into the equation.

However, I could never have imagined that Gauthier would be this dominant, this quickly at the NHL level.

The 22-year-old Gauthier led the Ducks with 41 goals in 76 games in his second full NHL season.

Despite ranking fifth among Anaheim’s forwards with 17:15 of ice time per game and spending the bulk of the year on the team’s second powerplay, Gauthier scored 12 goals more than his nearest teammate and led the way with 69 points in 76 games.

Gauthier’s versatility and quick-strike ability allowed head coach Joel Quenneville to play him with a rotation of forwards that included Ryan Poehling, Mason McTavish, and Jeffrey Viel on the third line late in the season.

Quenneville loaded up Chris Kreider, Leo Carlsson, and Troy Terry on his top line, followed by a second line that features Alex Killorn, Mikael Granlund, and stud rookie Beckett Sennecke.

Taking a closer look at some of the advanced stats, it’s hard to imagine the Ducks as a playoff team without Gauthier’s emergence as a top 11 scorer in the league.

Last night, I cashed Gauthier anytime goal +150, first goal +1000, and a +214 Same Game Parlay with Gauthier to score and Anaheim to beat the Nashville Predators.

While I’ve talked up Gauthier as an under-the-radar play all season, the end of the line is now in sight.

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Vancouver Canucks 6-1 last night to clinch second place in the Pacific Division.

As a result, Edmonton clinched home ice for Round 1.

So, in their return to the playoffs, the Ducks will face the two-time defending Western Conference champion Oilers without the potential advantage of home ice.

Is Anaheim capable of another surprise in the first round?

While Gauthier has the potential to make his mark in the postseason for the first time, I’m fading the Ducks against Edmonton in the series.

The Oilers took two of three head-to-head meetings versus Anaheim in the regular season.

More importantly, Edmonton is a battle-tested, veteran team that knows what it takes to make a deep playoff run after falling just short on the biggest stage each of the last two seasons.

Are the Oilers being overlooked as a Stanley Cup contender?

Let’s dive into the numbers in this Morning Coffee column for Friday April 17th, 2026.

The Oilers Are Being Overlooked As A Stanley Cup Contender Once Again

The NHL script got a bit of a refresh this season with six new playoff teams in the Ducks, Utah Mammoth, Buffalo Sabres, Pittsburgh Penguins, Boston Bruins, and the Philadelphia Flyers.

The good news is that hockey fans will see some fresh faces, new storylines, and the potential for some more surprises this postseason.

The bad news is that, at least on paper, none of those teams is expected to make a deep playoff run.

The Mammoth and Ducks are +1700 and +1900 to win the Western Conference, respectively.

Only the Los Angeles Kings have longer odds at +2500.

Meanwhile, the Sabres, Penguins, Flyers, and Bruins are all +650 or longer to reach the Stanley Cup Final.

While you’ve probably heard at least one NHL analyst say that the Eastern Conference is wide open, the Tampa Bay Lightning, Carolina Hurricanes, and Ottawa Senators are the top three choices to win the East at FanDuel.

You might have noticed that the Hurricanes and Senators will play each other in the first round of the playoffs.

Yes, the winner of that series is expected to make a run.

We’ll save that for another column.

Right now, my focus is on Edmonton being overlooked as a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.

The Oilers are -240 to beat the Ducks in the first round.

That number represents a 70.6 per cent implied chance.

The Vegas Golden Knights are -188 to win their series versus Utah.

Barring a surprise, Edmonton and Vegas would meet in a second-round series for the second year in a row.

Last year, the Oilers eliminated the Golden Knights in five.

One year later, I’d still lean Edmonton in a playoff series.

If you’re a regular reader of this column, then you already know that I made the Colorado Avalanche my best bet to win the Stanley Cup at +850 last summer.

Prior to the start of the season, I added the Lightning at +1600 and the Canadiens at +10000 as two potential long shot plays that could surprise in the Eastern Conference.

Fast-forward seven months, the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Avalanche are the favourite to win it all at +360.

The Lightning are the second choice at +480.

The Habs remain a long shot at +1900, but still nowhere near the +10000 number we saw back in the summer.

Plus, we’ve already cashed my favourite Habs bet for this season.

Then there’s the Oilers at +1500 to win the Stanley Cup and +550 to reach the Stanley Cup Final.

Edmonton opened +750 to win it all at last summer.

The Oilers were floating around +1000 to win the Stanley Cup as recently as the NHL trade deadline, when I released my list of the top five teams that could win it.

With a potential road to the Western Conference Finals that is most likely to include Anaheim and Vegas, +550 seems like a decent number to bet Edmonton to reach the Stanley Cup Final.

Are the Oilers being overlooked at +1500 to win it all?

I’ll say yes, for a few simple reasons.

First, Edmonton has a much more favourable path than teams like the Stars or Wild, which face off in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, then likely need to get through Colorado just to reach the conference finals.

The Oilers should be able to beat the Ducks in Round 1.

A month ago, Edmonton would have been a significant favourite for a playoff rematch versus Vegas.

While John Tortorella has the Golden Knights playing at a high level, I don’t think they’ll be able to slow down a healthy Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in a series.

In addition to McDavid and Draisaitl’s elite playoff stats, the Oilers also have a healthy Zach Hyman, who was sorely missed during last year’s Stanley Cup Final.

McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard, and Mattias Ekholm make up a solid and experienced core group that understands what it takes.

Then there’s Edmonton’s goaltending, which has long been considered the team’s biggest weakness.

Connor Ingram isn’t elite, but since March 1st he has posted a respectable .904 save percentage, a 2.46 goals against average, and a 9-4-2 record.

If Ingram can deliver similar numbers this postseason, the Oilers could be primed for another deep run.

With Colorado to win the Stanley Cup at +850 in-pocket, I’ll add Edmonton to win the Western Conference at +550 and to win the Stanley Cup at +1500 as a hedge.

The Presidents’ Trophy winners have not had a ton of success in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and if the Avalanche and the Oilers meet in the Western Conference Finals, I want to be able to enjoy it without cheering for a side based on a bet I made in June of 2025.

Hopefully, we get another classic between the Avalanche and the Oilers.

https://x.com/FanDuelCanada/status/1541409029422841857

If you’ve followed me long enough, then you might remember what happened the last time that Colorado and Edmonton met in the Western Conference Finals.

Have a great day, everyone!