Morning Coffee: Will the Marner redemption narrative continue in Western Conference Finals?

The Mitch Marner redemption narrative has grown so loud you’d think he already won the Conn Smythe Trophy after leading the Vegas Golden Knights to a Stanley Cup.

Sure, it’s poetic for anybody who wants to take a shot at Leafs Nation after years of torture, and maybe it’s a fact that everything is better in Vegas.

Then again, any redemption narrative requires context.

Marner has already set postseason career-highs with seven goals and 18 points in 12 games for the Golden Knights, and he’s headed to a conference final for the first time in his 10-year NHL career.

He’s also the third choice to win the Conn Smythe Trophy at +1200 at FanDuel.

Those numbers are certainly real.

However, those numbers came against two opponents that opened with the longest odds to win the Stanley Cup of any Western Conference team to make the postseason in the Utah Mammoth and Anaheim Ducks.

The Golden Knights were a heavy series favourite in each of the first two rounds.

They were expected to get here.

Vegas survived a thrilling seven-game series with Utah in Round 1, then traded victories with Anaheim through its first four games in Round 2, before eventually going on to win that series in six.

The competition is about to get a lot tougher for Marner and the Golden Knights in the Western Conference Finals.

The Colorado Avalanche are the fourth Presidents’ Trophy winner to reach a conference final in nine or fewer games over the last four decades.

Three of the previous four advanced to the Stanley Cup Final, and two went on to win it all.

The Avalanche finished the regular season with 26 more points than the Golden Knights, the largest difference in a conference final since 1996.

Will Marner lead Vegas to a series upset and a trip to the Stanley Cup Final?

Or is this the end of the line for the Golden Knights?

Let’s dive into the matchup and lock in a FanDuel Best Bet for Western Conference Finals in this Morning Coffee column for Wednesday May 20^th, 2026.

Will The Marner Redemption Narrative Continue In Western Conference Finals?

While Marner is on a mission, he’s also got by with a little help from his friends in these Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Pavel Dorofeyev and Brett Howden have combined for 17 of the team’s 44 goals this postseason.

Jack Eichel leads the Golden Knights with 14 assists.

That group will be asked to do a lot of the heavy lifting up front again for Vegas in the Western Conference Finals.

While Eichel leads the NHL in assists and ranks second in points this postseason, he’s been held to a single goal despite leading the Golden Knights with 2.9 shots on goal and 5.5 shot attempts per game.

Howden has capitalized on his opportunities to provide a spark, including three shorthanded markers, but his eight goals in 12 games this postseason is one shy of his nine goals in previous 43 career postseason games.

Meanwhile, Mark Stone hasn’t played since Game 3 versus Anaheim, and the club hasn’t provided an update on his status.

If Stone isn’t available, there will be more pressure on players like Tomas Hertl, Ivan Barbashev, and Colton Sissons to step up and help fill the void.

Whether or not they can have a significant impact in Stone’s absence will be an interesting storyline to watch.

The trio of Dorofeyev, Howden, and Marner accounted for 54.5 per cent of the team’s goals versus the Mammoth and Ducks.

Vegas is +215 to advance to the Stanley Cup Final.

If the Golden Knights are going to pull off an upset, they’ll certainly need some secondary scoring, in addition to sustained production from that trio of Dorofeyev, Howden, and Marner.

In the first round, Karel Vejmelka posted a -1.9 Goals Saved Above Expected and .885 save percentage versus the Golden Knights.

Lukas Dostal registered an NHL-worst -5.42 GSAE and .870 save percentage in 12 games.

While Colorado’s goaltending remains a question mark, Scott Wedgewood has produced a 2.0 Goals Saved Above Expected and a .914 save percentage this postseason.

He also has a much better team in front of him.

The Avalanche led the NHL with a 56.85 per cent Expected Goals in the regular season and that number has climbed to a 57.33 Expected Goals in the postseason after going a combined 8-1 against the Los Angeles Kings and Minnesota Wild.

Colorado also leads the league with a plus-14 goal differential at 5-on-5 in these Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Nathan MacKinnon started slow out of the gates with one assist in his first three games against the Kings.

Since then, he’s exploded for seven goals and 12 points, including a six-game goal streak.

None of them were prettier than this one.

Martin Necas has stepped up as a playmaker with a team-high 10 assists, including seven primary assists, at 5-on-5 and on the top powerplay unit.

Meanwhile, a couple of former Maple Leafs have also helped Colorado reach the Western Conference Finals.

Nazem Kadri has registered six points in nine games and ranks fourth on the Avalanche in Expected Goals (3.2).

Nicolas Roy, who was acquired from Toronto at the trade deadline, has recorded a point in three of his last four games to give him six in nine games.

17 different players have scored a goal for Colorado.

Only three Avalanche players have played at least 100 minutes and produced a negative On-Ice Goal Differential this postseason.

Val Nichushkin (-1), Brock Nelson (-2), and Logan O’Connor (-3) are a combined minus-six, but Nelson has a plus-1.9 On-Ice Expected Goal Differential and the second-best Expected Goals (4.4) mark on the team behind only Nathan MacKinnon (6.8).

Nelson has been held to two goals and three points.

Nelson registered three points and a plus-three rating versus the Golden Knights in the regular season, and if he starts to turn his chances into production than Colorado will be extremely tough to beat.

The Avalanche have the edge in star power and depth, although injuries could be a potential negative.

Cale Makar played through an injury in the second round against the Wild and that should continue against the Golden Knights.

Artturi Lehkonen, Sam Malinski, and Brent Burns are all banged up but expected to play in Game 1 tonight.

If one or more of those players suffered a serious setback, it would impact Colorado’s chances.

Still, the Avalanche are deep enough to overcome injuries and still punch their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final.

As for a FanDuel Best Bet for the series, I’ll go with Colorado -1.5 -118.

The Avalanche cruised to wins over the Kings in 4 and the Wild in 5 in the first two rounds.

I have Minnesota ahead of Vegas in my Power Rankings, and the potential loss of Stone would hurt the Golden Knights’ chances to force a seven-game series even more.

As for Game 1 tonight, I’ll lock in Colorado to win in regulation at -110.

The Avalanche are 5-0 on home ice this postseason.

The teams that won Game 1 have gone on to advance in 10 of the first 12 series in these Stanley Cup Playoffs and have registered a 68 per cent win rate all-time.

Colorado has won four consecutive series openers.

We might be better off waiting until there is confirmation that Makar isn’t playing to lock in a better number, but I like the Avalanche here.

After a week off to rest and recover for Game 1, I’ll bank on Colorado coming out hot tonight on home ice and finding a way to win it in regulation.

As always, make sure you give me a follow @Domenic_Padula on X for all my plays.

Have a great day, everyone!