Game 3 isn’t exactly win or go home for the Raptors, but they might as well start pre-packing for Cancun in the event of a loss.
NBA teams have opened 3-0 159 times in a best-of-7 series.
Their collective record is 159-0.
Cleveland has cruised through the first two games thus far and have yet to be tested in this series.
If Toronto has any shot, they need to muck up the game akin to what they did in the second-half of Game 2.
They won the transition battle 16-2, they outrebounded Cleveland 42-35, but they committed a season-high 22 turnovers which was hole too deep to climb out of.
With the spread dipping seven points from CLE -9.5 to -2.5, they are clearly factoring in homecourt advantage with the elimination game bump for Toronto.
Two games into the series, there are a few consistent themes which I’m willing to bet on ahead of Game 3.
RJ Barrett 20+ points (+102)
In a series filled with negativity, Barrett has been one of the silver linings thus far for the Raptors.
He’s playing with a level of fight and aggression that is desperately needed for a side that is losing the talent battle.
He’s dropped 24 and 22 points over the first two games and is emerging as an emotional leader for the team.
I’m particularly encouraged to bet this given how he’s gotten his offence.
Things aren’t being set up for him the way they are for Brandon Ingram; no plays are being force fed to Barrett.
Instead, he’s manufactured the bulk of his offence by crashing the glass and getting putbacks, cutting from the corners when defenders are sleeping on him, or exposing his mismatches and aggressively pursuing the rim.
18 of his 26 field-goal attempts have come in the paint.
Him and Scottie Barnes are the only two perimeter players averaging more than 4.0 points in the paint this series.
I also see this game mirroring his historic strengths – Barrett is a proven at-home performer both this season and over his playoff career.
These are his splits from this season:
Home – 31.0 mpg, 19.8 ppg, 50.5 fg%
Away – 29.6 mpg, 18.8 ppg, 47.8 fg%
Over his 16-game playoff career in New York, he’s averaged 20.6 points at home compared to 14.8 on the road.
In a must-win game, in front of a hometown crowd that hasn’t tasted postseason basketball in four years, Barrett has the arrow pointed up in a spot he should deliver.
Collin Murray-Boyles over 16.5 points + rebounds (-106)
I spoke about negatives in this series; Jakob Poeltl has been a major minus for Toronto so far.
Things got so ugly for the Austrian big man, he wasn’t just removed from the starting lineup in the second half of Game 2, he didn’t play a single minute.
Do I expect him to log less than 10 minutes tonight?
No, I do not.
But the writing is clearly on the wall, his leash will be very short.
Head coach Darko Rajakovic was non-committal about his rotation plans for Game 3.
Rajakovic wouldn't commit to a starting C for tomorrow's Game 3. "I don't know. I've got a lot of time to think about that." https://t.co/HNOt0pquKG
— Josh Lewenberg (@JLew1050) April 22, 2026
From a roster building standpoint, I understand and foresee why Poeltl will be given a chance to turn things around at home.
If you’re simply relying on your eyes though, it’s clear as day that CMB is making more of an impact.
The rookie has done a fantastic job boxing out and competing with Cleveland’s twin towers on defensive possessions.
Offensively, he’s been very active grabbing solo rebounds or tipping balls out to keep possessions alive for Toronto.
He’s done a great job catching tough passes from Barrett and Barnes, finishing in traffic.
His agility has also allowed him to make an impact in transition, sitting second on the team with six fast-break points.
In a must-win game, I’m counting on Rajakovic to depend on his most reliable players.
Who knows, this might be CMB’s Draymond Green over David Lee moment.
Jarrett Allen under 8.5 rebounds (-166)
Cleveland has shown their hand in a few ways; one of them is their insistence on keeping this a halfcourt game.
They’ve been very intentional about sending minimal help on the offensive glass, losing that battle in Game 2, 12-8.
The Raptors did the exact opposite in Game 2, sending more bodies for putbacks.
That typically leads to more defensive breakdowns and opportunities for fast break points.
Cleveland however did not capitalize logging just 2 fast break points for a second-straight game.
With Poeltl sitting out the entire second half, Allen’s minutes took a similar dip.
He went from 14 minutes in the first half to just under 11 in the second half.
Allen wasn’t punishing the Raptors for giving up height and the Cavs opted for more shooting on the floor.
Add in the fact that Allen has been nursing an injury since the regular season and has opened with just 5.0 rpg through two games, I don’t think his line is accounting for some of the changes we’ve seen so far in this series.
