There is one big issue now that NFL contract incentives have been the talk of the town for a few years in NFL betting media: All of the value is gone.
By the time the final week of the NFL season arrives, it seems like everyone and their mother knows that player X needs xx yards to make $xxx, xxx.
Over the past few years, we’ve seen inflated numbers on props and touchdown prices on players that resemble more of a coin flip than a true reflection of their output that season.
So, what does that mean? Has the opportunity to make money on contract incentives gone the way of the dodo bird? No. We just have to get a little more creative.
That means we need to identify the Week 18 incentives before they happen.
It feels like an impossible task. Good thing we love doing the impossible here at TSN Betting.
Let’s dive into why this could be a good week for the bank account of Buffalo Bills receiver Khalil Shakir.
Khalil Shakir betting incentives to watch in Week 16
Khalil Shakir receiving TD Escalator (Currently has four)
| Total | Payour |
|---|---|
| 5 Rec TD | $150,000 |
| 6 Rec TD | $300,000 |
| 8 Rec TD | $450,000 |
| 10 Rec TD | $600,000 |
Picture this: It’s Week 18, and the Buffalo Bills are home against the New York Jets.
In your quest for finding contract incentive bets, you stumble on Shakir and notice he has seven receiving touchdowns and is just one shy of triggering his $450,000 bonus.
But there’s an issue. The books know that, and Shakir is +130 to score his eighth of the season as he seeks an additional $150,000 from his TD escalator.
So, why not get on earlier? Shakir enters Week 16 one touchdown shy of hitting the first ladder of $150,000 and two shy of $300,000. What better time for Shakir to put some money in his pocket than as a 10-point favourite against the Cleveland Browns?
The Browns are allowing the seventh most touchdowns per game to wide receivers this season, and Shakir’s 10 red-zone targets rank first on Buffalo among pass catchers.
I will gladly roll the dice with Shakir at +340 to score a touchdown on Sunday in Cleveland, and will also take a flyer on him to make $300,000 Sunday afternoon with two touchdowns at +3500.
