The Playbook: Padula’s FanDuel best bets for NFL Sunday Week 9

I grew up cheering for Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning.

A decade later, Patrick Mahomes versus Josh Allen feels a lot like Brady versus Manning 2.0.

Two of the best quarterbacks that ever played the game competing at the highest level.

Only one of them can reach the Super Bowl every year.

Mahomes and Allen headline a talented list of AFC QBs that features Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow – when healthy - and others.

Mahomes, Allen, and Maye are the top three choices to win NFL regular season MVP at FanDuel this morning.

Unless they meet in the playoffs, we won’t get to see Mahomes versus Maye this season.

However, we are guaranteed at least one more clash between Allen and Maye.

First up, it’s Mahomes versus Allen later this afternoon.

The Chiefs are FanDuel’s Super Bowl favourite at +500.

The Bills are the fourth choice to win it all at +800.

Kansas City is a 1.5-point road favourite today at Buffalo.

While the Chiefs have dominated this head-to-head series in the playoffs, the Bills have had their number during the regular season.

Buffalo has won and covered the spread in four straight regular season meetings with Kansas City.

Today’s game won’t mean nearly as much as if they meet again this postseason, but it could have significant implications in the AFC playoff race.

The Bills are chasing the New England Patriots for the AFC East crown.

The Chiefs are chasing the Denver Broncos in the loaded AFC West.

Both teams are looking up at Daniel Jones and the 7-1 Indianapolis Colts atop the AFC standings.

How big of a difference will it make if the Colts secure home field instead of having to travel come playoff time?

What about if Kansas City or Buffalo can overtake them in the standings and force them to travel for a postseason game in the frozen temperatures in January?

Then there is home field advantage for a potential rematch between Mahomes and Allen.

Over the last five seasons, the Bills have gone 7-1 in the playoffs against opponents other than Kansas City.

They’ve 0-4 against the Chiefs.

Buffalo and Kansas City appear to be on a collision course to meet in this year’s AFC playoffs once again.

A slow start by the Chiefs appears to be a distant memory now after they managed to string together a three-game win streak that has coincided with the returns of Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice.

Kansas City is the only NFL team that ranks in the top five on both offence and defence this season.

The Chiefs can improve to 6-3 with a win in Buffalo in their final game before a bye week.

Meanwhile, the Bills are in good shape at 5-2 but are still looking for their first noteworthy win of the season.

Buffalo lost its only game against an opponent with a winning record - the rival Patriots - in Week 5.

The Bills have the second-lowest strength of victory in the entire league so far this season.

Of course, a win over Kansas City could change that.

There are also a couple of notable questions that need to be answered in today’s game.

First, can the Buffalo defence pressure Mahomes and slow down a Chiefs offence that leads the NFL with 415.8 total yards per game and 46.4 first downs per game since they started getting healthy again back in Week 4?

Kansas City has scored 28 points or more in five straight games – the longest active streak in the NFL.

Mahomes leads the NFL with 286.1 passing yards per game over that span.

I’m not convinced the Bills can slow him down, which leads to another question that must be answered.

Can Allen and the Buffalo offence keep pace with the Chiefs attack?

Or, at the very least, can they win the possession battle and keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands long enough to secure a win at home?

The Bills lead the NFL with 164.4 rushing yards per game.

They just went off for 245 rushing yards in a Week 8 win over the Carolina Panthers.

Kansas City’s defence has held opponents to an average of 100.0 rushing yards per game – the 11^th-best mark in the NFL this season.

Running back James Cook leads the NFL with 107.6 rushing yards per game.

If Buffalo can establish Cook on the ground, it will unlock what they want to do on offence and help them win the possession battle.

The Bills won’t abandon the run if they struggle early.

That makes that head-to-head matchup that much more interesting to watch this afternoon.

As for a FanDuel Best Bet, I’m going to take Chiefs -1.5.

Buffalo has dominated the regular season series and has the home field advantage, yet FanDuel still has the Bills at plus-money to win the game outright.

While the Chiefs won’t have Isiah Pacheco, that might be a good thing considering Kareem Hunt and the rookie Brashard Smith might be their best options.

The bigger loss might be rookie left tackle Josh Simmons, who remains sidelined with a non-injury related issue.

The Bills have played a high rate of Cover 3 and Cover 2 with a lot of two-high safety looks, which is exactly the type of coverage Rashee Rice has thrived against.

However, Buffalo has also been one of the league’s top run funnel defences this season, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game (114.3) in the NFL.

On the flip side, I know that the Bills want to establish Cook early, and I know that the Chiefs will want to sell out to slow him down.

I’m a firm believer that Buffalo needs to figure out how to get the football in Cook’s hands as a receiver to get him more looks in space.

Perhaps this is the game that it happens.

Cook did have three catches for 49 yards against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

I’ll roll the dice and take Cook over 11.5 receiving yards.

I’ll also add Hunt over 46.5 rushing yards, Smith over 12.5 rushing yards, JuJu Smith-Schuster over 10.5 receiving yards, Rice over 6.5 receptions and over 72.5 receiving.

FantasyPoints projects Rice for 80.2 receiving yards on 7.2 receptions.

Rice has averaged 8.0 receptions for 67.5 yards in his first two games of the season, including 9/93/1 against the Washington Commanders last week.

The Chiefs desire to get him the football behind and near the line of scrimmage gives him a decent floor for receptions.

Drake London, Stefon Diggs, and Tetairoa McMillan have all had big games against this Buffalo defence.

I expect Rice to have his best game of the season today.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs will want to establish a run game against the Bills’ run funnel defence, with Hunt and Smith both getting touches.

Smith might only need one or two touches to go over 12.5 rushing yards.

Hunt should see enough touches as the lead back to go over 46.5 rushing yards.

Finally, Smith-Schuster has registered at least two catches for at least 17 yards in every game except one this year.

Juju had two catches for 60 yards in last year’s AFC Championship Game.

He’ll go over 10.5 receiving yards in this game.

In case you missed it, I posted my early NFL Sunday Week 9 plays @Domenic_Padula on X earlier this week.

I’ve outline my full list of NFL Sunday Week 9 plays below.

Enjoy the football, everyone!

1 PM ET Slate

Chimere Dike over 32.5 receiving yards

Jahmyr Gibbs over 74.5 rushing yards

Jahmyr Gibbs over 22.5 receiving yards

David Montgomery over 47.5 rushing yards

Jameson Williams over 42.5 receiving yards

Christian Watson over 33.5 receiving yards

+102 Builder Lambeau SGP: Romeo Doubs 30+ receiving yards, Tucker Kraft 30+ receiving yards, Rico Dowdle 30+ rushing yards

Roman Wilson over 14.5 receiving yards

+105 Builder TE SGP: Tyler Warren 40+ receiving yards, Jonnu Smith 10+ receiving yards, Pat Freiermuth 10+ receiving yards

4 PM ET Slate

Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 at Buffalo Bills

Rashee Rice over 6.5 receptions

Rashee Rice over 72.5 receiving yards

JuJu Smith-Schuster over 10.5 receiving yards

Kareem Hunt over 46.5 rushing yards

Brashard Smith over 12.5 rushing yards

James Cook over 10.5 receiving yards

Juwan Johnson over 30.5 receiving yards

Sunday Night Football

Seattle Seahawks -3 at Washington Commanders