Paul Skenes had as impressive a start to a career as any pitcher in recent memory, winning the Rookie of the Year award in 2024 and the Cy Young last season.
But 2026 has been a different story for Skenes, whose 3.88 ERA in 25 starts sits much higher than his combined mark of 1.96 through his first two seasons.
Skenes went five innings and threw just 65 pitches in his most recent outing against the Miami Marlins on Tuesday, allowing two runs (one earned) in an eventual 2-0 loss.
Pirates manager Don Kelly said via Perla Paredes of MLB.com before Tuesday’s game that adjustments from hitters have been to blame for Skenes’ dip in performance.
“The league is adjusting back,” Kelly said. “Paul’s gonna have to fight to make the adjustment back to the league. ... Yes, the velo is down. I think command has been a bigger thing, at least for me.
“That could come from multiple things. Trying too hard to be too perfect. ... Well, you can’t just go and try to get it. So how does Paul make the adjustment back?”
The Pirates said Skenes’ early hook Tuesday was not injury related. He said he did not have an issue with Kelly’s decision to remove him after just 65 pitches, his shortest outing of the season with the exception of a weather-delayed start against the Tampa Bay Rays in April.
“[Kelly] walked me through everything, and it made sense,” Skenes said. “I wish I could have gone more, but it kinda is what it is.”
“He’s the manager, and I don’t ever argue with it.”
Skenes’ fastball velocity has been a talking point of late and the drop-off has been noticeable. His average fastball velocity this season is 96.8 mph, down from 98.1 mph last season and 98.8 mph two years ago.
According to ESPN, Skenes averaged a career-low 95.7 mph on his fastball against Miami on Tuesday and did not throw a single pitch harder than 97.
Skenes did not address his velocity directly Tuesday night, but said pitch volume has been an issue this season.
“I know the innings total isn’t super high right now,” Skenes said. “I think I’ve probably had more 30- to 35-pitch innings this year than I have probably in the last two years combined, so that doesn’t help either. It’s still volume, even if it doesn’t show up on the innings total. That’s probably part of it too.”
The year got off to a rocky start when Skenes allowed five earned runs and went just 0.2 innings against the New York Mets on Opening Day. He was solid through the month of April, but has a 5.00 ERA in 16 starts from May 17 onwards, where the Pirates have a record of 3-13 in those games.
The Pirates now sit six games below .500 at 58-64, six games out of the final National League wild-card spot entering play Thursday.
