Low assist numbers aren't damning for Raptors

Josh Lewenberg

TSN Raptors Reporter

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TORONTO - Only one team averages fewer assists than the Toronto Raptors, who have now failed to reach 20 in all but one of their last seven contests, a game in which DeMar DeRozan was held out for rest.

We've been conditioned to see this as a bad thing, a sign of weakness that we associate with unimaginative offences and poor or fraudulent teams. For this, you can thank the Golden State Warriors and their unique brand of free-flowing basketball. Those damn Warriors, with their wizardly, all-world point guard, unselfish supporting cast - including the league's best passing big man - and seemingly endless collection of spot-up shooters. How dare they?

The Warriors are so good we've almost become spoiled by the way they play. They're on pace to tally more assists than any team in 24 years, averaging just two fewer than the all-time record set by the Magic Johnson-led 1984-85 Los Angeles Lakers.

They're so good because they move the ball so well, but they move the ball well because they have the personnel to pull it off.

News flash: not everybody can play like the Warriors, but there is more than one way to play winning basketball in the NBA.

The best teams aren't necessarily the ones that move the ball the most or accumulate the most assists. As simplistic as it sounds, the best teams are the ones that have the best players and can tailor their style to the individual skill set of those players.

In many ways, the Raptors are like the anti-Warriors. They average 18.4 assists, 2.3 fewer than last season and almost 11 less than Golden State, but there they are among the top five teams in offensive efficiency, the top three since Jan. 1. Not unlike the reigning champs, they play to the strength of their stars and, if their record is any indication, they're doing a pretty good job of it.

"We will never be a high-assist team just because of the DNA of our star players," Dwane Casey said following a Tuesday afternoon practice session. "They are rhythm players with the dribble off the bounce. They're not the kind of guys that are going to catch and shoot, so it takes down the assists. We'll never be a high-assist team because of that and that doesn't bother me."

That's not to say they're devaluing ball movement. Despite the drop off in assists, Toronto has gone from the 24th ranked team in passes per game last season to 14th this year, averaging roughly 23 more a night. Most of those passes come early in the shot clock, as the team gets into their sets and before the ball reaches its final destination, usually DeRozan, Kyle Lowry or Jonas Valanciunas - their highest usage players.

As Casey noted, none of them are catch and shoot-type scorers, all three are at their best when they're creating off the dribble, which often negates the assist - a statistic that can be misleading. Lowry is one of the best at powering his way to the rim, Valanciunas has become an efficient post-up player and then there's DeRozan - the biggest reason Toronto's offence operates the way it does.

Seventy per cent of DeRozan's field goals are unassisted - fourth-highest among non-point guards, behind James Harden, Tyreke Evans and Dwayne Wade, all similar types of players. While many still associate DeRozan with isolation basketball and Kobe Bryant-like mid-range jumpers, he's actually cut down on those tough, inefficient shots this season. Instead, he leads the league in points coming off drives to the basket and remains elite at getting to the free-throw line.
Thanks in large part to DeRozan, third in the league in free throw attempts, 21 per cent of Toronto's points come from the line - second only to Minnesota - and, obviously, those are all unassisted.

"You've got to have ball movement, but scoring off the pass is different," Casey clarified. "Some teams have excellent one-on-one players and you're going to take a couple dribbles to get to the rim. The ball movement is far more important to me, getting the ball from the strong side to the weak side is far more important and we're doing a much better job of that."

DeRozan has become very good at the things he does well and that's shaped Toronto's playing personality. He wouldn't be nearly as effective in Klay Thompson's role with Golden State - coming off screens, catching and shooting from the corners - the same way it wouldn't be wise of the Warriors to run DeRozan's plays for Thompson.

There are a number of misconceptions regarding teams that don't move the ball at an elite rate, including a belief that it will come back to bite them at the end of games and in the playoffs.

Whether you approve of the Raptors' late-game shot selection or not, it hasn't exactly held them back this season. They're last in assists over the final minute of games decided by five points or less, but still rank sixth in offensive efficiency and have a record of 20-13 in those scenarios - fifth-best in the association.

As for the playoffs, only time will tell if that success carries over or if an opponent can lock into the Raptors’ tendencies and take them out of their comfort zone, like the Wizards did a year ago. What they failed to do last postseason was adjust and that will be their biggest test once again. When the opposition throws regular double teams at DeRozan and Lowry, when they're pressured and the game becomes more physical, how will they fare?

Yes, a team is going to have more time and incentive to prepare for the Raptors, but it would be naive to think that they're about to be scouted for the first time this season. The truth is, teams have been trying to take DeRozan and Lowry out of the game for months but, to their credit, they've both become much better at reading the defence and making plays for each other and their teammates. DeRozan, in particular, has taken a big step in that regard this season. Sporting a career-best assist rate, he's learned to embrace double teams and use his knack for getting into the lane to suck in the defence and find open shooters on the perimeter.

"He's gotten so much better this year [after] going through what we went through last year, teams trying to take [the ball] out of his hands," Casey said of DeRozan. "Kyle is doing an excellent job of it, JV is reading the soft double teams, so all of our players have grown in that area and the only way you get that is through experience, playing together, the continuity, knowing where guys are going to be. At the end of the day, guys have to make shots out of those passes and we've done that."

The biggest misconception is that moving the ball at a high or even league-average level is some kind of prerequisite to win in the NBA. It's not.

The league-leaders in passes per game in each of the past two seasons, the Utah Jazz and New York Knicks, are ranked 28th and 26th in assists this year and have a combined record of 62-79. As for the current top-10 in assists, it consists of some great teams (Golden State, San Antonio, Oklahoma City), some good teams (Atlanta and Boston) and five teams that are below .500 (Sacramento, Washington, Orlando, Milwaukee and Minnesota). The average league standing for top-10 teams in assists over the past five years is 11th.

While the league-leader in assists has made it to the Finals in each of the last three years (Golden State last season, San Antonio twice before that), their opponent has ranked between seventh and 11th. The Thunder made it to the Finals in 2011-12 despite finishing dead last in assists that season and were defeated by the Heat, ranked 21st in the category.

To get to where they need to go the Raptors don't have to borrow from the Warriors' playbook. At this point, they are who they are, but why must that be a bad thing? Lowry and DeRozan are having career years and, as a result, the team is enjoying their best season ever playing the way they've been playing. None of that is a coincidence.