Betting
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays still favourites to win ALDS with bullpen game looming

By
Luke Bellus

Published: 

Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Louis Varland reacts after giving up a three-run home run to New York Yankees' Aaron Judge during the fourth inning of Game 3 of baseball's American League Division Series, Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

You thought it would be easy?

It looked like the Toronto Blue Jays were going to punch their ticket to the American League Championship Series on Tuesday night as they led 6-1 through the opening two-and-a-half innings.

But Toronto was held scoreless for the rest of the game, and with New York scoring eight runs over the next four innings, the series was suddenly back on.

What went wrong for the Blue Jays in their Game 3 collapse? The Blue Jays held a 6-1 lead in the third inning before the Yankees stormed all the way back to force a Game 4. What went wrong for Toronto? MLB.com reporter Keegan Matheson joins SportsCentre to give his thoughts, and explain why Aaron Judge's pivotal game-tying homer was "one of the best swings we will see all season".

Toronto is now -220 to win this series on FanDuel, a number that comes with an implied probability of 68.75 per cent.

Here is a look at how the odds to win this series have shifted after each game.

Odds to win ALDSToronto Before Game 1New York
Entering Series+132-156
After Game 1 -150+128
After Game 2-600+375
After Game 3-220+182

Despite being the favourite to advance, Toronto enters Wednesday night as +144 underdogs on FanDuel to close out the series in four games.

Louis Varland will get the start for Toronto. The 27-year-old righty has appeared in all three games of this series, allowing three hits and two earned runs over 2.2 innings.

The flamethrower gets a quick chance to level the score in the first inning with Aaron Judge, after the Yankees slugger hit a three-run home run in the fourth inning off Varland on a 100-mph fastball.

If Toronto sticks with the same plan it used in a bullpen game against Boston late in the season, it’s likely Varland will throw two innings at most, before handing the ball to lefty Eric Lauer for three or four as a bridge to the late-inning arms.

Matheson expecting 'Royal Rumble style' pitching plan from Jays in Game 4 MLB.com reporter Keegan Matheson joins Jay Onrait to dissect how the Blue Jays squandered a 6-1 lead in Game 3, describe the atmosphere after Aaron Judge's pivotal game-tying home run, and share how the Jays 'pitching will play out in Game 4 after Toronto was forced to burn a lot of its bullpen.

Due to the uncertainty of Varland, FanDuel currently doesn’t have any pitching props available for Toronto.

As for New York’s starter, Cam Schlittle r (a name born to be pronounced by TSN’s Jay Onrait) takes the mound tonight for the first time since striking out 12 Boston Red Sox in his postseason debut last week.

This will be the third time Toronto sees Schlittler this season. The Yankees rookie tossed 6.2 innings against the Blue Jays this season, punching out five guys, while allowing 12 hits and giving up seven runs.

Schlittler’s total for strikeouts tonight sits at four-and-a-half on FanDuel, with the over priced at -174.

Schlittler has gone over that number in eight of his past nine starts, with the only time he went under (two) coming against the Blue Jays.

Here are some notable props for Game 4.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.George SpringerAaron JudgeGiancarlo Stanton
To hit a home run +350+320+180+250
To record a hit-260-230-270-190
To record a run +105-115-160-115
To record an RBI+160+175+100+130