The baseball season is a grind and betting on baseball can be an even bigger one.
Every day we have the chance to bet on dozens of quality hitters to go deep, and the information at our disposal can almost be overwhelming.
Between weather models, and batter versus pitcher matchups and luck-adjusted batting averages and park factor and the time of day and the jerseys and... like I said, overwhelming.
According to The Ballpark Pal sims, 33.5 home runs are projected for Friday night with the Yankees and Astros game expected to produce the most of the day.
33.5 Homeruns are projected!!
— NewYorkWill (@YankeesFan845) April 24, 2026
Who is hitting a dinger today? 👀
Shoutout to @BallparkPal for the Homerun and Ball Park Projections pic.twitter.com/yPQ8COaTAG
The season is too long to make lottery tickets every day, so I’ve started a challenge.
The concept is simple: How high can we climb? I have seven days to hit one home run bet. When I hit a winner, I will climb the ladder and attempt to cash a two-leg home run parlay.
Once we get to the second rung, if we fail to cash a two-leg home run parlay after seven days we’ll drop back down to one guy only. When we hit a two-leg parlay, we’ll advance to three legs.
Last night we started the challenge with Bo Bichette, who had three hits in a game with the Mets for just the second time this season, but failed to hit a home run, so we begin 0-1.
MLB home run ladder challenge: Tucker set for big weekend against former team
Kyle Tucker takes on the Chicago Cubs for the first time tonight since signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers in free agency.
After spending seven seasons in Houston, Tucker joined the Cubs in 2025, hitting 22 home runs with a .266 batting average.
Tucker was slow out of the gate to start 2026 but has nine hits in his last eight games. He also has two of his three home runs in 2026 during that stretch.
Tucker has four hits with one home run in 10 at-bats against Cubs starter Jameson Taillon.
This season, in 22.2 innings of work, Taillon has allowed six home runs, with four of those coming from left-handed hitters.
As Ty Collem on X points out, Tucker’s success against Taillon and some recent close calls make him a prime candidate to break out tonight in a “revenge” spot.
This is his first game against his former team and he’s had success vs Taillon in the past. He’s 4 for 12, HR (.333 ISO)
— Ty Collem (@elicoleman85) April 24, 2026
In the past few days, Tucker has hit a few 300+ foot fly balls and I believe in some positive regression. pic.twitter.com/VaBsLJe3FC
