Morning Coffee: Can Oilers extend series with win over Ducks in Game 5?

For years, Oilers Nation has been beating the drum that goaltending is the one glaring piece holding them back from winning the Stanley Cup.

“Get them an elite goaltender, and they’re unstoppable.”

So, after falling just short on the biggest stage two years in a row, the Edmonton Oilers made major changes.

Somehow, it might’ve made the situation worse.

While hockey fans talk about finding the right goalie as if it’s as easy as ordering Domino’s, it turns out it’s a lot harder than it looks.

Frederik Andersen, Linus Ullmark, Scott Wedgewood, Dan Vladar, and Alex Lyon are the top five goaltenders when it comes to Goals Saved Above Expected in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Meanwhile, household names like Jake Oettinger and Jeremy Swayman rank in the bottom half of the league.

Facing a 3-0 hole in their first round series against the Philadelphia Flyers, the Pittsburgh Penguins benched Stuart Skinner for Arturs Silovs, whose .920 save percentage has helped them claw back into the series.

Meanwhile, the Vegas Golden Knights stuck with Carter Hart after a strong finish to the regular season, but they’ve had to overcome his .886 save percentage in the playoffs and battle to a 2-2 tie with the Utah Mammoth.

Trailing 3-1 to the Ducks, the Oilers will decide whether Tristan Jarry or Connor Ingram will get the start tonight in Game 5 on home ice.

Regardless of which goaltender they choose, Edmonton is one loss away from elimination and must win three in a row to avoid the most shocking first-round exit of these Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The Oilers will have the star power, the experience, the home crowd, and their backs against the wall tonight.

That should be enough to make Edmonton a popular bet to win Game 5 at -172 on the moneyline at FanDuel.

Let’s dive into some key numbers and lock in a best bet for tonight’s game in this Morning Coffee column for Tuesday April 28^th, 2026.

Can Oilers Extend Series With Win Over Ducks In Game 5?

Tristan Jarry stopped 33 of the 36 shots he faced in regulation when called on in Game 4.

While I’m adamant the overtime winner shouldn’t have ended up anywhere close to the goal line, he might have done enough to earn another start.

Connor Ingram’s -3.0 Goals Saved Above Expected is the second-worst of any goalie in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Ironically, the only goalie that has performed worse in that category is Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal (-3.1).

While goaltending is an issue, it’s not the only problem the Oilers need to send this series back to California.

Edmonton jumped out to an early 2-0 lead less than seven minutes into Game 4 but was held to a single goal over the final 53 minutes of regulation.

The Oilers have led in all four games in this series.

Anaheim outscored Edmonton a combined 4-0 at 5-on-5 in the third period of their Game 3 and Game 4 wins.

Over the last four regulation periods, the Oilers have scored one goal at 5-on-5 – Kasperi Kapanen’s opening goal just 38 seconds into Game 4.

The lack of 5-on-5 scoring and goaltending concerns is a tough combination that was made worse by the penalties Edmonton took in Sunday’s loss.

The Oilers led 2-0 early in the first period of Game 4.

The Ducks answered with two powerplay goals in the second to tie it.

Edmonton is -172 to extend the series with a win tonight.

To force a Game 6 and avoid a devastating first-round exit, the Oilers will need to do three things better.

First, they can’t afford to let up if they take an early lead.

The fact that Edmonton led each of the last three games and end up losing is brutal, but it also points to the chances they have had to – at minimum - bring this series back to Alberta tied 2-2.

The lack of 5-on-5 scoring has been an issue, so the Oilers cannot afford to let up if they strike early in Game 5.

Edmonton also needs to avoid the unnecessary penalties that have hurt them in the series.

The Ducks have a ton of firepower up front.

It’s one thing to try to slow them down at 5-on-5, but a tough task will become that much more difficult if Anaheim gets three or four powerplay opportunities.

Finally, the Oilers need their goaltending to be better.

Jarry wasn’t the reason Edmonton lost Game 4.

That said, a strong start to Game 5 could give the Oilers the confidence they need to attack without hesitation.

Nobody expected Jarry or Ingram to steal a win.

They just need to be good enough to make the one or two key saves that can be the difference in a playoff win.

Nobody expected Edmonton to fall behind 3-1 to Anaheim in the series.

While I haven’t seen enough in this series to back the Oilers at +340 to advance, I have seen enough from this core group over the years to roll the dice on them to stay alive with a win in Game 5 tonight.

I’ll lock in a FanDuel Same Game Parlay with the Oilers to win, and both Connor McDavid and Cutter Gauthier to register 2+ shots on goal at -107.

McDavid has cleared 3+ shots on goal in all four games.

Gauthier has cleared 4+ shots on goal in three straight.

Hopefully, both skaters can get me two shots on goal and Edmonton can extend the series as the favourite to win on home ice tonight.

Have a great day, everyone!