DeRozan's All-Star fate could rest on votes for Lowry

Josh Lewenberg

TSN Raptors Reporter

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TORONTO - The Raptors' tandem of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry has long been considered one of the top guard pairings in the association, but they're no longer just great by backcourt standards.

Nearly halfway into the campaign, only three sets of teammates combine to score more on a per game basis, all of them in the opposite conference: Oklahoma City's Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, Golden State's Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, Portland's Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.

Toronto's dynamic duo is in elite company and people are starting to take notice. Two seasons ago, the league's coaches made DeRozan a first-time All-Star, with fans giving Lowry that same honour a year later. However, the Raptors have not had two players represent them in the NBA's annual showcase since Vince Carter and Antonio Davis played and started for the Eastern Conference in 2001.

That could change when they host All-Star festivities next month. At least, it should.

"I hope [they both make it]," head coach Dwane Casey said of his two best players, DeRozan and Lowry, earlier in January. "Both of them are playing like All-Stars, playing at an All-Star level. As long as the team is successful, there's a better chance and I always pitch that [to the other coaches]. They both are playing in a way that is conducive to us winning."

Of the two, Lowry is in the mix for a starting gig in the East's backcourt and, rightly or wrongly, DeRozan's All-Star fate may be dependent on whether his teammate wins the fan vote. As of Thursday's voting returns, Lowry was still slotted third among guards in the conference, roughly 29,000 votes behind Cleveland's Kyrie Irving for the second and final starting spot (Dwyane Wade has a comfortable lead in first).

Here's the conundrum. After the starters are announced on Jan. 21, the NBA's head coaches will select the seven reserves for each team. The coaches only vote for their conference, but can't vote in their own players. If Lowry does not get chosen by the fans, there's some question as to whether or not the coaches would reward two Raptors, especially considering the strength of the East this season. Sure, Toronto entered Tuesday's action nine games above .500, with the second-best record in the conference, but the East is better and more balanced than it has been in almost two decades. More teams are winning, meaning there are more players worthy of All-Star consideration, particularly at the guard position.

The biggest factor is Irving, an All-Star calibre player that has appeared in just nine games this season after sitting out the first seven weeks with a knee injury. Should Lowry, or anybody else, pass him in fan voting, there's almost no chance the coaches would put him in, as a result of the time he's missed. Thus, if he does start, there will be one less spot available for DeRozan and the East's other guards.

The coaches' ballot is broken up as follows: two guards, three frontcourt players and two "wildcards" (players at any position). Wade is going to start, that much we know. Lowry is a safe bet to make the team, whether the fans vote him in or not. Jimmy Butler and John Wall are also locks. Meaning, there's only 1-2 additional spots for guards if Irving doesn't get the fan endorsement, 0-1 if he does, depending on how the wildcards are used. Here's a look at how it shakes out:

Eastern Conference All-Star guard spots if Irving is voted in by fans

Starter 1: Wade
Starter 2: Irving

Reserve 1: Butler
Reserve 2: Wall

WC 1: Lowry
WC 2: ? (guard or frontcourt player)

Eastern Conference All-Star guard spots without Irving

Starter 1: Wade
Starter 2: Lowry (or Butler, or Wall - both still in the mix as well)

Reserve 1: Butler
Reserve 2: Wall

WC 1: ? (guard or frontcourt player)
WC 2: ? (guard or frontcourt player)

DeRozan's body of work this season is certainly deserving. He's third in the East in scoring, leading the conference in free throws made and attempted while playing the best basketball of his career over the last month and a half. However, there are other guards that have earned consideration, namely Detroit's Reggie Jackson and perhaps Boston's Isaiah Thomas. There are probably 4-5 frontcourt players that could nab a wildcard spot. LeBron James, Paul George and Andre Drummond are currently leading fan voting, which still leaves Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Paul Millsap, Al Horford, Kevin Love, Pau Gasol - all former all-stars from teams within one game of .500 and half of them won't make it if the coaches use their wildcard spots on guards.

The impact Lowry and DeRozan have had on their team, especially with DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas sidelined for extended periods of time, rivals just about everybody on that list. They're the only Eastern Conference teammates that both rank inside the top-13 in win shares (an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player), each of them taking their games to new heights this year.

"[DeRozan and Lowry] both have put themselves in the position to be All-Star candidates," Casey said. "They're playing at a very high level, both of them, on both ends of the floor. DeMar's playing probably some of the most efficient basketball he's played since he's been here. And Kyle has been Kyle. He's playing like a quarterback, running the team, seeing situations, defending, playing with a tremendous amount of energy on both ends of the floor. He's playing as well as he's played since he's been here."

"Easily," Carroll said, asked if both his teammates should be all-stars. "Very easily, especially with our record. If we can keep winning games they should easily make it, them two, because they've really been the focal point of our team this year."

Unfortunately, that's not always enough in a process that isn't exactly designed to fairly reward the deserving. As we know, fan voting is flawed. It's a popularity contest that favours marketable guys playing in big markets or for buzzy teams (see: Irving, who plays alongside LeBron on the Eastern Conference-winning Cavaliers). The ability to vote on social media over the last couple years has added a new wrinkle, as celebrities can single-handedly alter the race with their endorsement, something that actually worked to Lowry's advantage as he leapfrogged Wade in the 11th hour last season.

As for the coaches' vote, there are often politics involved. Coaches can't vote for their own guys, so they'll campaign on behalf of their players and many tend to avoid voting for the direct competition. Let's use Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy, for example (to reiterate, merely an example). In addition to making calls, sending texts and asking his colleagues to cast their vote for Jackson, he could also increase his point guard's chances when filling out his ballot. If, for instance, he believes the final spot may come down to Jackson or DeRozan, he could vote for locks at the position (Butler, Wall) and select a player with an outside shot at making it instead of DeRozan.

This all begs the question: how much credence should we be giving to All-Star selections, anyway - a topic for another day. However, whether you agree it should be or not, it's important to the Raptors and it means something to Lowry and DeRozan, especially with the game being played north of the border for the first time ever.

The next and final balloting update will be released on Thursday with fan voting coming to a close on Monday. Strangely enough, a vote for Lowry is also a vote for DeRozan - it could end up doubling his chances of making the All-Star team, and it could be the difference between seeing one or two players representing the Raptors in Toronto on Feb. 14.