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TSN Raptors Reporter

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TORONTO - It wasn't hard to get excited about the Toronto Raptors coming out of last month's All-Star break.

The sour taste left by a moderately concerning mid-season slump was fading quickly after a pair of trade deadline heists seemed to finally make them whole, or as close to whole as they've been in a long time, maybe ever. On paper they sure looked the part of a contender. Were they the East's second-best team once again? Could they make a serious run at Cleveland in the spring? If everything came together as expected, how good might they be?

Now, three turbulent weeks and one crushing injury later, we're no closer to answering those burning questions. What are they capable of at their best? You aren't the only one who is curious.

"I think about it at night when I'm watching other teams play," DeMar DeRozan admitted. "But it's something that we've got to be patient with and understand we've got to figure this thing out now, without having Kyle [Lowry], and once he gets back make sure it's an easy transition for everybody."

In 10 games since Lowry's injury, the Raptors have had more ups and downs than a roller coaster, which is precisely what watching them over this last month has felt like. On some nights, the cause for optimism is impossible to miss: their renewed commitment to defence and the seamless fit of Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker. On others, it's hard to imagine how they'll ever win a game without Lowry again.

Toronto is the conference's great unknown. With 15 regular-season games remaining, no team is harder to get a read on, nobody more unpredictable. In a best-case scenario, their ceiling is higher than most. In an equally as conceivable worst-case scenario, their floor is very low.

Whether they end up on one end of that spectrum or the other, or somewhere in between, their fate rests in the hands - or on the wrist - of their most important player.

After undergoing surgery late last month, Lowry isn't expected to make his return until sometime in April. He's hoping to get a few games under his belt before the playoffs begin in about four weeks, but that's not a certainty. When he'll be back and what condition he'll be in at that point remains a mystery.

While any Lowry is better than no Lowry at all​, it's probably wishful thinking to expect he'll pick up right where he left off. For one, he'll have missed extended time with an injury to his shooting wrist - how long will it take him to shake off the rust and get back into rhythm? He'll also have to assimilate himself to the new guys, and the new guys will have to assimilate themselves to him.

Although the Raptors are a commendable 6-4 in Lowry's absence, finding any semblance of consistency has been a challenge. Convincing wins over Boston, Washington and New Orleans have been overshadowed by some ugly losses to the Bucks, Heat and those same Wizards.

Predictably, Toronto's once powerful offence has fallen apart without its best playmaker and most lethal outside shooter. This shouldn't come as much of a surprise to anyone that's familiar with Lowry's body of work or values him anywhere close to the top 10-15 player he's been over the last four years. Remove that type of player from any team in the middle of the season and there's going to be a significant drop off. The Clippers went 8-13 without Chris Paul and, even with multiple other All-Stars on their rosters, the Cavaliers are 10-9 without Kevin Love and the Warriors are 3-5 without Kevin Durant.

It's difficult to get a good sense of where this team is at right now. That's not to say that these final games won't be telling. The habits they're building now, particularly on the defensive end, could go a long way in ensuring their success later. 

For most of the season, Toronto had been hovering between 16th and 23rd in defensive efficiency, with an ambitious goal of eventually cracking the top-10. Now, forced to rely on defence sans Lowry and with their two newcomers leading the charge, the Raptors are up to 13th, as high as they've ranked all season. They're eighth in the NBA over the last 10 games and third over the last five.

In Monday's much-needed win over Dallas, they held an improved Mavericks team to 78 points on 37 per cent shooting. Even after a couple of uninspiring efforts over the weekend, if you're looking for a reason to believe the Raptors could be headed towards that "best-case scenario," this would be it. Defence, if they do have it figured out, is something that should serve them well in the playoffs, with or without Lowry at 100 per cent.

"This is how we should be playing on a consistent basis on the defensive side of the ball," Patrick Patterson said after the game. "It shows what we are capable of on the defensive end of the ball, but it's just one game. Hopefully we can string it together throughout the rest of the season and into the playoffs, but it shows what we're capable of on that side."

The home stretch won't be boring. At this time last year, the Raptors had all but locked up the second seed and were just playing out the schedule and trying not to lose focus while they waited for the postseason to begin. Now, they're right in the thick of a wide-open Eastern Conference. They're not losing sleep over it, but they are aware of the standings and what's at stake.

"We’re all looking at it," said Norman Powell. "We talk about it. We talk about how close the playoff seeding race is right now. This is the best part of the season, fighting for playoff position, especially in the East. It’s really, really close. We wanna get hot late and go on a run, jump up in the standings."

Entering Tuesday's games, the fourth-seeded Raptors sit 2.5 games behind third-place Washington and three games behind Boston for second. Nobody is locked in anywhere. Even Cleveland's hold on first place is tenuous, with the Celtics just two games back. It's still too early to get caught up in seeding or possible matchup scenarios, but one thing is for certain: The Raptors do not want to fall out of fourth and lose home-court advantage in the opening round. They saw the value of it firsthand last year, winning two deciding game sevens, both of them at the Air Canada Centre, where they've got a record of 22-11 this season (they're just 17-17 on the road).

While they won't face elite competition until the regular-season finale in Cleveland ­- assuming that game means something for the Cavs - 10 of their final 15 games come against teams currently situated between fifth and 10th place in their conference, teams that are fighting for seeding and, in some cases, their playoff lives.

How good can the Raptors be at their best? We don't know and neither do they. If nothing else, waiting for an answer to that question, or to see if they'll even be in a position to answer it at all, should help make for a compelling finish.