3rd and 1: Best bets for Week 11 of CFL Season

“What happened? I blacked out.”

Frank the Tank’s (Will Ferrell’s) first words after what ‘the ragin’ cajun’ James Carville (played by himself) called a perfect debate answer in the 2003 Todd Phillips’ comedy Old School.  Frank was in flow state.  “That’s the way you debate!”

Speaking of flow state, we were oh so close to a second straight perfect slate. My confidence couldn’t have been higher on Saturday afternoon after seven straight winners.  We just needed the Redblacks and Argonauts to lock in on defence and limit each other to no more than 53 points combined.  When the first quarter ended with a scoop and score, I knew our perfect streak was in peril and the confidence that was in the clouds minutes earlier had succumbed to gravity.  The game went back and forth until there were 88 points on the board, second most in the CFL this season.  After pulling my hair out, I remembered that perfection is unattainable.  It’s about the pursuit.

Ottawa Redblacks at Winnipeg Blue Bombers

The Redblacks came away with the much-needed win in the above-mentioned shootout last week in Toronto.  The Argos fell to 2-7, last in the East and head coach Ryan Dinwiddie ripped into his team for the second time this season.  We’ll see if that well can be tapped twice. Which is why I’m staying away from the Argos as underdogs in Edmonton this week.  By laying out the boatmen’s issues, my question becomes: what does that win say about the Redblacks?  It was nice to see the offence come alive, but the defence obviously leaves a lot to be desired.  This week, it’s another road game against a struggling Grey Cup finalist.  The Bombers are 1-4 after a 3-0 start.  The health of Zach Collaros is a concern, and the offence is suffering with Dalton Schoen on the sideline. They’re also banged up in the secondary going against a talented and experienced Redblacks receiving corps.  I think Ottawa can score but, in the words of former NY Jets linebacker Bart Scott: “can’t stop a nosebleed.”  Brady Oliveira could have a big night but as much as the Bombers need to get right, I don’t trust them to win big.  

THE PICK: REDBLACKS +5.5

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Saskatchewan Roughriders

Hamilton had its flow state interrupted last week. After six straight wins, they finally fell to the Lions in overtime Thursday night.  Bo Levi Mitchell was already looking ahead to this week just minutes after the loss. “The thought process is you took a punch, get back up and go face somebody bigger. We want Sask and we’re ready for them.”  It’s a potential Grey Cup preview with the two division leaders on deck.  For the Tabbies, each dish served by the schedule makers during this seven-course meal has been worse than the last.  But Bo is playing at an elite level. He leads the league in passing yards and touchdowns with 21, to just 3 interceptions this season.  He’s dissecting defences by getting the ball out quick and then capitalizing on his deep shots.  That will be the key against Saskatchewan.  As good as the Riders pass rush has been with 10 sacks in their last two games, Mitchell has been just as good at reading defences.  If Bo smells the pressure, Kiondre Smith could be his security blanket on short balls in the slot.  Smith’s receptions total will be available closer to kickoff.  The Riders are a seven-win team for a reason. Trevor Harris is making his case to be in the MOP conversation, and the run game compliments what they do on defence.  It’s a scary squad, especially at home.  But Bo has made me a believer, and I loved what he said after last week’s loss. “We want Sask and we’re ready for them.”  I believe him. The Ti-Cats will be up to play the league’s best before a much-needed Bye.

THE PICK: TIGER-CATS +3.5

Montreal Alouettes at BC Lions

I’ll bet Alouettes GM Danny Maciocia and Head Coach Jason Maas are wishing they still had Cody Fajardo right about now.  In fairness, trading away their Grey Cup winning quarterback after deciding on Davis Alexander as the future was probably a favour to Fajardo.  He deserved to go to a place where he had a better chance to start and at least they could get what they thought was a capable backup in McLeod Bethel-Thompson.  And it didn’t really matter because the Als didn’t lose with Alexander on the field.  But therein lies the problem.  Any football player, especially a quarterback’s best ability is their availability, and Alexander has been available less often than not thus far in his career.  Now that McBeth is injured, the team turns to Caleb Evans while signing Cameron Dukes to the squad.  The former Grey Cup favourite is now the fourth choice to win it all.  Despite all the disruptions in the nest, the Als have to catch a west coast flight.  Nathan Rourke is coming off his first 400-yard game since 2022 and the eye test tells us that he’s playing as well as ever before.  If Bo ever has a bad week, you’ll remember when the Maple Messiah’s MOP odds were as long as 15-to-1, now 11-to-1.  I think the Lions are legit if they can tighten up on defence, but this week I don’t see them winning by less than double digits. 

THE PICK: LIONS -6.5

PLAYER PROP:  JAMES BUTLER ANYTIME TD (+120)

I expect another big week from James Butler.  Even though the Als run defence is good on paper, I don’t expect them to get off the field very often on Saturday night.  Not only is Butler the league’s leading rusher, he’s also averaging almost three receptions a game and made a great catch for the game-tying touchdown last week.  Butler has four total TDs in the last two weeks and without a rushing prop at print time, this price is too good to pass up in a game that could get out of hand.