3rd and 1: Best Bets for Week 11 of the CFL Season

“Sure, luck means a lot in football.  Not having a good quarterback is bad luck.” – Don Shula

If some CFL teams didn’t have bad luck, they would have no luck when it comes to quarterbacks in 2024. The CFL is at its best when every team has a quarterback they can rely on. But exciting and experienced pivots are all of sudden returning to play – either from injury or the NFL.  For some teams, their luck is bound to change.

Ottawa Redblacks at Calgary Stampeders

Since signing with Ottawa, Jeremiah Masoli has been dealt a devastating string of career cards.

The former MOP finalist has started five games in three seasons.  In 2022, he was on the receiving end of one of the most despicable things I’ve ever seen in sports.  I’m not exaggerating.  I’ll never forget Garrett Marino’s clear intent to injure followed by his celebration as if he’d scored a touchdown as he left the field for good.  Masoli made it back for week 5 last season, only to suffer an Achilles tear in the second quarter. I’m rooting for him.  But I’m also betting on him against an average Stampeders squad.  Let’s not forget that the Redblacks beat them 33-6 in their last meeting three weeks ago. 

THE PICK: REDBLACKS +3.5

Montreal Alouettes at Saskatchewan Roughriders

Also three weeks ago, these two first-placed teams met in Montreal.  Saskatchewan led 16-3 at halftime when Davis Alexander emerged from deep off the depth chart to orchestrate seventeen unanswered points in the comeback.  Montreal continues to win despite being without Cody Fajardo.  Saskatchewan hasn’t won since week seven.  They would benefit from the steady hand of Trevor Harris back at the helm.  Harris led the Riders to a 4-0 record before going down with a knee injury.  He and AJ Ouellette are taking first-team reps leading to Friday Night Football. Jameer Thurman’s return to the centre of the Riders defence is green icing on the cake.  The Als are currently the class of the league, but I like how this sets up for the Riders, returning some important pieces in Regina with a score to settle.

THE PICK: ROUGHRIDERS +1.5

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at BC Lions

“They don’t sign him not to play him.  He’s been in the system and he knows what to do.”

That was Bombers head coach Mike O’Shea after practice on Tuesday, interrupting a reporter’s question to scoff at it; his orange and grey beard only serving to exaggerate his smirk.  They are getting ready for Nathan Rourke when they visit BC Place on Sunday.  Tasked with trying to slow him down, Bombers linebacker Adam Bighill said, “A Vernon [Adams] offence and a Rourke offence are very similar.” Meaning it shouldn’t take long for the Lions to adjust.  Willie Jefferson added: “He knows that offence, he knows the majority of those receivers.”  Winnipeg is aware of what lies ahead.  In case you missed it two years ago, Rourke was as good as almost anybody’s ever been in the CFL over a ten-game stretch.  Much hype is being bestowed upon the Maple Messiah, but a couple things about his game could still be flying under the radar.  A) His accuracy is elite.  He set the record for the highest completion percentage in a season in 2022.  He completed 39 passes in a game on two different occasions.  That’s only been done fourteen times in CFL history and Rourke did twice in one season.  B) Rourke can run. He had 7 rushing touchdowns in 2022, and at least two of them were from more than thirty yards out.  The Pride will be large and loud to see Rourke back in BC.  It could be quite a show.

THE PICK: LIONS -1.5

CFL Fantasy Best Bet: KEON HATCHER ($ 6.0 K)

Rourke may know the majority of his receivers, as Willie Jefferson said, but most his favourite receivers from two years are no longer in BC.  It’s a reminder of how rapidly rosters can change.  Dominique Rhymes is in Ottawa.  Lucky Whitehead will be on the opposite sideline with Winnipeg.  Bryan Burnham retired after the 2022 season.  That leaves Keon Hatcher, who quietly finished with the 7^th most receiving yards in his first full season in the CFL that year.  Hatcher finished second in receiving yards last season with Adams as his quarterback.  An Achilles injury delayed the start of this season, but the eye test suggests Hatcher is ready to re-establish himself as one the league’s best.  Keon couldn’t have timed his readiness with Rourke’s return any better.