3rd And 1: Best Bets for Week 2 of the CFL season

Week 1 hadn’t wrapped before the anticipation for this week’s picks began to build.  3rd and 1 was 3-1 to begin the season.  The Ottawa Redblacks couldn’t keep it close enough in the season opener to make a clean sweep.  While it’s all good on paper after the fact, starting 0-1 is never fun.  As I was saying, this week’s early lines left me with little doubt about which side would be mine.  Of course, as we get closer to kickoff, the spreads have shifted significantly.  The board is experiencing turbulence and no longer looks anything like it did when my confidence was at cruising altitude.  Alas, this ride might not have the private sleeping quarters that were promised, but someone will be along to pass out peanuts any minute.  Hopefully, we’ll make it to your destination. Welcome aboard this week’s edition of 3rd and 1. 

BC Lions at Winnipeg Blue Bombers

The Maple Messiah!  Living up to the moniker I’ve bestowed upon him since last season, Nathan Rourke looked like the league’s best player once again.  He went from the second choice to win MOP at +700 entering the season, to a less than +400 favourite.  And that’s still good value for a guy that was on a record setting pace before being injured midseason in his first season as a starter in 2022.  He was still named the league’s most outstanding Canadian that year after finishing with a full season’s worth of stats in just 10 games.  This week in Winnipeg, I think we’ll see more of the same from Rourke with at least 300 yards and 3 touchdowns as the standard he’s set.  The line’s gone from -1.5 to -3.5 and I’m still siding with the road team in Winnipeg.  No disrespect to the 5-time West Division champs, but let’s not forget that they started 0-4 last season and were2-6 at the start of August. Zach Collaros is serving his one-game suspension. It’s Chris Streveler under centre and swapping deep shots if it turns into a shootout was never his specialty.

THE PICK: LIONS -3.5

Montreal Alouettes at Ottawa Redblacks

My eyes popped when the Als opened as underdogs for Ottawa’s home opener on Friday Night Football.  Granted, the Redblacks were 7-1-1 at home last season.  But, taking the Als was an easy choice, especially after seeing what they did in Week 1.  That line didn’t last long.  News emerged that Dru Brown wasn’t on the field and this line flipped.  It’s since gone all the way to Montreal -4.5.  I’m still on the Als.  The Angry Birds returned almost everyone from what was arguably the league’s best defence a year ago.  They held the reigning Grey Cup champs to just 10 points in week 1.  Davis Alexander also put to rest any questions about his underwhelming preseason performance.  Ottawa is built through the air.  Despite the loss, they had a league-high 413 passing yards in week 1.  Matt Shiltz, with his 21 career touchdowns to 20 interceptions, will be hard pressed to match that production.

THE PICK: ALOUETTES -4.5

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Hamilton Tiger-Cats

It was an ugly season opener for the Ti-cats in Calgary.  The score was closer than the actual game.  The groans are loud in Hamilton as fear of another slow start permeates the fan base.  Bo Levi Mitchell was benched last season, before finishing with a career high in passing yards.  ‘If only they figured it out earlier in the season’… we all said.  Ornery was a word to describe the Ti-Cats at practice this week.  Missing the playoffs last season after starting 0-5 gives this group a greater sense of urgency.  Either that or they’re saying all the right things.  Meanwhile, the Riders hit the road with even more names on added to their injured list.  Even if they manage to emerge with a victory, I’m banking it’ll be by less than a field goal. 

THE PICK: TIGER-CATS +3.5

PLAYER PROP:  TIM WHITE OVER 60.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Kenny Lawler drew the Tiger’s share of targets and attention in the Ti-Cats week one loss in Calgary.  Bo Levi Mitchell appeared to be forcing it to their big offseason acquisition.  Everybody seems to agree that Mitchell needs to spread it around.  That said, Tim White’s ‘quite’ afternoon still consisted of six catches for 69 yards along with a 14 yard run.  He’s finished among the top four receivers in each of the last three years, leading all receivers in 2023.  Saskatchewan’s secondary let not one, but two Redblacks receivers collect over 100 yards last week.  Let’s see Hamilton repeat the feat.