3rd And 1: Best bets for Week 5 of the CFL season

If this were a friendly weekend round on the links, I’d take my mulligan after Week 4.  There are 18 games in the regular season and 18 holes in a game of golf.  We’re all friends here, right?  

No need to revisit all the question marks next to key position entering last week.  The important thing is that there is a little more clarity ahead of this week’s slate.    

I hear my dad’s voice in my head: “Get back on the horse.” 

That’s always good advice, but it’s especially fitting with the inaugural Stampede Bowl in Calgary set to kick off in Calgary. How is this the first one of these?  Let’s ride. 

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Calgary Stampeders  

Capitalizing on what’s called “The Greatest Outdoor Show on Earth,” Calgary will host the Bombers to open the annual Calgary Stampede. The first trophy of the season will be handed out. But if the home team wanted to win its own hardware, they would have been wise to hope for a different opponent.  

Winnipeg is a wagon right now. Zach Collaros toyed with the Elks last week. Reigning MOP Brady Oliveira is expected to return to the lineup after missing two games, which will round out an offence that’s already leading the league in points per game. The defence also leads the league in points allowed per game.  

As promising as the Stampeders start has been, it may take some glue in the saddle to ride with the Bombers. Winnipeg has won and covered all three of its games so far and appears determined to win trophies this season, with the big one being handed out on their home field in November. 

THE PICK: BLUE BOMBERS -3.5  

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Toronto Argonauts  

Both teams are coming off their first wins of the season, but only one of the of them gave reason to believe they could carry over that success.  

The TiCats took care of business against the previously undefeated Als. I’ll give them credit, even if it was against McLeod Bethel-Thompson at quarterback. Maybe that had something to do with Devin Veresuk. 

After questioning the TiCats’ move to cut Kyle Wilson in last week’s column, Veresuk made his first start at middle linebacker. The second-overall pick this year led the team in tackles and garnered high praise from his head coach. On offence, Bo Levi Mitchell to Kenny Lawler has quickly become the most dynamic duo in the league, and they’re getting running back Greg Bell back for Friday night. 

But this is all about the Argos. They opened as a slight favourite, but the line has since flipped and then continued to move in Hamilton’s direction. Toronto relied on a pair of 100-plus yard touchdowns from their defence and special teams to beat Dustin Crum and the Redblacks’ one-dimensional offence on Sunday. 

The Argos are likely to be without their top two running backs, and Wynton McManis is still injured. Head coach Ryan Dinwiddie has ruled out starting QB Chad Kelly until after Week 7, so the boatmen will be bailing water until then. 

THE PICK: TIGER-CATS -2.5  

Ottawa Redblacks at Edmonton Elks  

Dru Brown is taking first-team reps. He’s been out since completing 34 of 41 pass attempts for 413 yards and two touchdowns in the Redblacks Week 1 loss in Saskatchewan. Brown entered this season as a close second choice to lead the CFL in passing yards and that’s exactly what he did in the one week he was on the field.  

Even without Bralon Addison for the next few games, Ottawa’s offence is loaded with weapons. Wait and see what William Stanback will do when the defence is worried about the pass attack. The offence has potential to be explosive, but Brown makes it go boom.  If he’s on the field, it could be fireworks against an Elks defence that’s allowing a league-high 35 points a game.  

THE PICK: REDBLACKS -2.5  

BC Lions at Montreal Alouettes 

Quarterback question marks keep me from taking the Lions plus the points on Saturday.  I still believe in Buck Pierce and Nathan Rourke. If it’s Rourke against Bethel-Thompson, I’ll go on a Lion safari again. For now, let’s pick a winning parlay.  

Make no mistake, James Butler is one of the league’s best backs. He proved it again last week gaining 123 yards on 17 carries against the league’s best run defence. Up next are the Alouettes, who have the next best run defence in the CFL.   

Sure, if Rourke starts his usage could decrease a bit, but not enough to be unproductive. And even if it’s Jeremiah Masoli under centre, against Bethel-Thompson he can keep it within a touchdown. 

PLAYER PROP PARLAY: JAMES BUTLER 40+ RUSHING YDS / LIONS +7.5 alt spread (-120)